68-70 Lynch St · San Francisco, CA 94109

$1,295,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,132 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1900 1,424 sqft lot $607/sqft · 24% below area Est $1676k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Outstanding Edwardian 2 full-floor flats with parking and roof deck with Golden Gate Bridge and Bay views. Lower flat is one-bedroom with a den (den is staged as second bedroom), formal dining room, living room with fireplace, large kitchen and full bathroom. Sparkling hardwood floors and lots of period detailing throughout. Top flat has two bedrooms, large kitchen, dining room, living room with bay windows, full bath and lots of light. Garage can accommodate one large car, has a laundry room, second room and additional storage. Fantastic location! Walk score of 98. Close to Polk St. shops and restaurants. Also close to Hyde St. and Union St. Located in the heartbeat of the city.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Large kitchen
• Bay views

Tags

• GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE VIEWS
• BAY VIEWS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LIVING ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• LARGE KITCHEN
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 parking space)
• Home design: Duplex (residential income); Two flats: upper flat and lower flat; Built in 1900
• Construction: 1900 construction
• Exterior features: Small lot (approximately 1,424 sq ft); No notable lot features listed

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Upper flat and lower flat units (duplex, residential income); One unit currently leased and one unit vacant

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×1bd/1ba + 1×2bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $1.29M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-338 ($-4k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-169/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.25M (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.09M (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.09M (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.6%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,900/mo this rent would consume 123% of the median local household income ($106k/yr) (locally 5272% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $74k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$119k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.26M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $1,090,000 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.12%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,675,565
• List price: $1,295,000
• Delta: -22.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1519-1521 Jackson St	0.17mi	6/3.0	2,046 (-4%)	6mo	$1,725,000	$843	76
863-865 Greenwich St	0.45mi	5/— (-1)	2,162 (+1%)	7mo	$1,200,000	$555	66
58-60 N Valparaiso St	0.44mi	6/—	1,924 (-10%)	12mo	$1,100,000	$572	53
1316-1318 Powell St	0.44mi	6/2.0	2,324 (+9%)	19mo	$1,200,000	$516	49
1165-1167 Kearny St	0.69mi	6/3.0	2,008 (-6%)	13mo	$958,000	$477	43
24 Windsor Pl	0.75mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,335 (+10%)	0mo	$1,468,000	$629	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.02% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $336,268
• Equity at exit: $735,537

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $1,173,220
• Equity at exit: $1,270,826

Cash invested: $362,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94109

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Rents YoY: 15.6%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 20.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,900 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,791
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,619 /mo · $19,425/yr
• Insurance: −$540
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,289
• Net cashflow: $-338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,328

Max offer price $1,246,025

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $556	-5% $109	+0% $-338	+5% $-786	+10% $-1,233
Rent	-10% $-1,200	-5% $-769	+0% $-338	+5% $92	+10% $523
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $-9	base $-338	+0.5pp $-674	+1.0pp $-1,015

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	1	1	$5,292
1× unit	2	1	$5,608
Total (2 units)			$10,900

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $323,750
• Closing costs: $38,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2256B Van Ness Ave San Francisco, CA	5.0	2.0	1990	$11,995	$6.03	24d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,295,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,295,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,295,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,295,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,295,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,295,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    listed $1,295,000 Active 688-char remark
16. 2025-10-12
    listed $1,295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥79°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $130,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$72,540
• − Property taxes: −$19,425
• − Insurance: −$6,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,464
• − Management: −$10,464
• − Depreciation: −$37,673
• Taxable loss: −$26,241
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,298
• After-tax cash flow: $2,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,553
• Household income: $106,018
• Rent vs Own: 83.2% rent · 16.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5272.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Asian 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 31% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Chinese 10% Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.02%
• Current HPI: 175.8886
• Rent YoY: ▲ 15.60%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $1,295,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2025-10-12 Listed $1,295,000 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,206 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.