Baylor Plan · Brookshire, TX 77423

$273,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,532 sqft · SingleFamily · 169 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Baylor floor plan offers a functional and inviting layout with 1,476 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, this single-story home combines comfort and efficiency to suit a variety of lifestyles. The open-concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and family areas, creating a spacious and welcoming environment perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The modern kitchen includes ample cabinetry, countertop space, and a central island, making meal prep and gatherings effortless. Large windows throughout the main living area bring in natural light, enhancing the home's bright and airy feel.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 169 days

🏗️ New construction. The $273,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $331,395.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $274k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-478 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $229,384 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.18%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,395
• List price: $273,990
• Delta: -17.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3053 Duskshine Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+4%)	2mo	$253,990	$159	67
3073 Duskshine Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+4%)	4mo	$314,990	$197	64
1020 Star Skye Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,769 (+16%)	2mo	$307,040	$174	57
1005 Sunlit Cir	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,827 (+19%)	5mo	$315,790	$173	51
1012 Sunlit Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,769 (+16%)	2mo	$303,490	$172	49
3032 Duskshine Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+17%)	4mo	$331,990	$185	48
1113 Sunlit Cir	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,827 (+19%)	4mo	$313,990	$172	48
397 Stone Placa Trl	1.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,450 (-5%)	2mo	$264,730	$183	47
3081 Duskshine Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+17%)	3mo	$338,990	$189	46
1013 Daybreak Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,769 (+16%)	4mo	$279,990	$158	44
429 Stone Placa Trl	1.08mi	4/2.0	1,689 (+10%)	5mo	$288,225	$171	44
1104 Sunlit Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,786 (+17%)	2mo	$299,900	$168	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-90,836
• Equity at exit: $49,412

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-144,144
• Equity at exit: $28,653

Cash invested: $92,791 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 55 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.7 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $309,990 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 64 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,294 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,738
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$414 /mo · $4,971/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,899

Max offer price $262,219

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-249	-5% $-364	+0% $-478	+5% $-593	+10% $-707
Rent	-10% $-659	-5% $-569	+0% $-478	+5% $-387	+10% $-297
Rate	-1.0pp $-311	-0.5pp $-394	base $-478	+0.5pp $-564	+1.0pp $-651

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,849
• Closing costs: $9,942
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $278,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Baylor)Active listing
• Construction: New construction
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,532Address: 4016 Shimmer Sol Dr, Brookshire TX 77423

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Baylor (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $273,990 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $273,990 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $273,990 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $273,990 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $273,990 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $273,990 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $273,990 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $273,990 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $273,990 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $273,990 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $273,990 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $273,990 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $273,990 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $278,990 Active 151 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $278,990 Active 150 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $278,990 Active 148 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $278,990 Active 146 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $278,990 Active 144 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $278,990 Active 143 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $278,990 Active 142 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $278,990 Active 141 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $278,990 Active 140 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $278,990 Active 139 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $278,990 Active 138 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $278,990 Active 137 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $278,990 Active 136 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $278,990 Active 135 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $278,990 Active 134 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $278,990 Active 133 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $278,990 Active 132 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $278,990 Active 131 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $278,990 Active 130 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $278,990 Active 129 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $278,990 Active 128 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $278,990 Active 127 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $278,990 Active 126 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $278,990 Active 125 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $278,990 Active 124 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $278,990 Active 123 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $278,990 Active 121 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $278,990 Active 120 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $278,990 Active 119 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $278,990 Active 118 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $278,990 Active 115 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $278,990 Active 113 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $278,990 Active 112 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $278,990 Active 110 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $278,990 Active 108 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $278,990 Active 107 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $278,990 Active 106 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,563
• − Property taxes: −$4,971
• − Insurance: −$1,657
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,202
• − Management: −$2,202
• − Depreciation: −$9,641
• Taxable loss: −$11,710
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,810
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,660–$22,980 screening

The home is in good condition with a modern and functional layout. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic improvements that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting interior, which can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal Early Childhood Center Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $278,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Baylor)Active listing
• Construction: New construction
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,532Address: 4016 Shimmer Sol Dr, Brookshire TX 77423

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Baylor (new construction)