Baylor Plan · Pattison, TX 77423

$278,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,532 sqft · SingleFamily · 75 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Baylor floor plan offers a functional and inviting layout with 1,476 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, this single-story home combines comfort and efficiency to suit a variety of lifestyles. The open-concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and family areas, creating a spacious and welcoming environment perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The modern kitchen includes ample cabinetry, countertop space, and a central island, making meal prep and gatherings effortless. Large windows throughout the main living area bring in natural light, enhancing the home's bright and airy feel. The private owner's suite, located at the back of the home, offers a relaxing retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and ensuite bath. Three additional bedrooms are positioned toward the front, ideal for children, guests, or a home office. A conveniently located laundry room and ample storage add everyday functionality. Designed for modern living, the Baylor floor plan balances open gathering spaces with private bedrooms, delivering the perfect blend of comfort, versatility, and style- all within a smart, efficient footprint that makes this home both practical and beautifully livable.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 75 days

🏗️ New construction. The $278,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $331,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-475 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,282 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.13%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,990
• List price: $278,990
• Delta: -15.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3037 Helios Haven Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,574 (+3%)	3mo	$286,990	$182	81
3029 Helios Haven Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,692 (+10%)	5mo	$299,000	$177	76
3073 Duskshine Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+4%)	1mo	$314,990	$197	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-90,769
• Equity at exit: $49,501

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-143,942
• Equity at exit: $28,704

Cash invested: $92,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,741
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$415 /mo · $4,980/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,904

Max offer price $263,245

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-246	-5% $-360	+0% $-475	+5% $-590	+10% $-705
Rent	-10% $-657	-5% $-566	+0% $-475	+5% $-384	+10% $-293
Rate	-1.0pp $-308	-0.5pp $-391	base $-475	+0.5pp $-561	+1.0pp $-649

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,998
• Closing costs: $9,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $278,990 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $278,990 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $278,990 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $278,990 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $278,990 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $278,990 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $278,990 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $278,990 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $278,990 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $278,990 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $278,990 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $278,990 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $278,990 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $278,990 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    listed $278,990 Active 1269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1269 chars)

    The Baylor floor plan offers a functional and inviting layout with 1,476 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, this single-story home combines comfort and efficiency to suit a variety of lifestyles. The open-concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and family areas, creating a spacious and welcoming environment perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The modern kitchen includes ample cabinetry, countertop space, and a central island, making meal prep and gatherings effortless. Large windows throughout the main living area bring in natural light, enhancing the home's bright and airy feel. The private owner's suite, located at the back of the home, offers a relaxing retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and ensuite bath. Three additional bedrooms are positioned toward the front, ideal for children, guests, or a home office. A conveniently located laundry room and ample storage add everyday functionality. Designed for modern living, the Baylor floor plan balances open gathering spaces with private bedrooms, delivering the perfect blend of comfort, versatility, and style- all within a smart, efficient footprint that makes this home both practical and beautifully livable.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,634
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,597
• − Property taxes: −$4,980
• − Insurance: −$1,660
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,211
• − Management: −$2,211
• − Depreciation: −$9,658
• Taxable loss: −$11,682
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,804
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with a modern and functional layout. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic improvements that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Interior touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting interior, which can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Maintains a fresh and inviting interior, which can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $278,990 Zillow