142 Lawn Park · Trenton, NJ 08648

$430,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,743 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1976 $247/sqft · 16% below area Est $509k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

$2k credit offered towards buyers closing costs, brand new water heater, and new updates!! Welcome to 142 Lawn Park Ave, nestled in the highly sought-after Eldridge Park section of Lawrence Township. This spacious, well-maintained home offers an ideal blend of comfort, functionality, and location. This inviting property features an open floor plan, seamlessly connecting the spacious living room with hardwood floors to a bright and airy dining area. The kitchen boasts beautiful countertops, stainless steel appliances, microwave, and ample cabinet space, perfect for both everyday cooking and entertaining. The main floor open concept area provides comfort and enjoyment with this open concept s

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Kitchenette area
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• BRAND NEW WATER HEATER
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• KITCHENETTE AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (4 spaces); Total of 4 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas for heating and hot water
• Home design: Detached property; 2 floors in unit; Property described in excellent to very good condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Pets allowed with no pet restrictions
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 72 x 70; Not in federal flood zone; Municipal trash service

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Microwave; Oven/Range - Electric; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Extra refrigerator/freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on main level; 3 bedrooms on lower level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate plank; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 on main level, 1 on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating (natural gas); Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen island; Kitchenette
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on lower floor; Exhaust fan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $390k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $390k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Lawrence Township Public School District (suburban): math 24% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #217 of 472 in NJ (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($424k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; list at $430k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $390,139 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.22%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $509,425
• List price: $430,000
• Delta: -15.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
235 Eldridge Ave	0.32mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,649 (-5%)	8mo	$499,830	$303	60
166 Millerick Ave	0.55mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,664 (-4%)	18mo	$430,000	$258	46
131 Drift Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,941 (+11%)	8mo	$550,000	$283	45
34 Sherbrooke	0.74mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,580 (-9%)	24mo	$395,000	$250	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-73,237
• Equity at exit: $64,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-97,677
• Equity at exit: $37,179

Cash invested: $120,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08648

• Rents YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,901 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$525 /mo · $6,302/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$819
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,746

Max offer price $430,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,500
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
383 Johnson Ave Lawrenceville, NJ	4.0	2.0	1605	$3,200	$1.99	13d	1	0.81mi
11 Whitemarsh Dr Lawrence Township, NJ	4.0	2.5	2062	$4,300	$2.09	13d	1	1.07mi
117 Browning Ave Ewing, NJ	5.0	2.0	1584	$3,500	$2.21	21d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-05-06
   listed $430,000 Active 1282-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   historical
3. 2026-04-25
   price $430,000
4. 2026-03-27
   price $439,900
5. 2026-03-13
   listed $449,000 Active
6. 2025-12-05
   historical
7. 2025-10-23
   price $459,900
8. 2025-09-30
   price $479,900
9. 2025-09-15
   listed $489,900 Active
10. 2025-09-14
    historical
11. 2024-11-05
    historical
12. 2024-10-02
    price $490,000
13. 2024-09-18
    listed $519,900 Active
14. 2024-09-17
    historical
15. 2024-08-26
    price $539,900
16. 2024-08-14
    listed $574,999 Active
17. 2024-08-14
    historical
18. 2018-06-27
    price $219,900
19. 2018-01-30
    soldstatus $195,000
20. 2018-01-26
    soldstatus $195,000 Closed
21. 2018-01-26
    soldstatus $195,000 Sold
22. 2017-12-20
    historical Contingent - Other
23. 2017-10-30
    price $219,900
24. 2017-09-08
    listed $224,900 Active No-Show
25. 2017-07-13
    listed $224,900 Active
26. 1999-01-15
    soldstatus $128,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,302 · $525/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,504 · $709/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,203/yr (+$184/mo · 35.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,087
• − Property taxes: −$6,302
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,745
• − Management: −$3,745
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$5,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,373
• After-tax cash flow: $2,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3408400
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $89,210
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4661
• State rank: #217 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,323
• Household income: $125,514
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 14% Black 12% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.66%
• Current HPI: 260.9615
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.01%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+235.9% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $430,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $430,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $439,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $449,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $459,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $479,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $489,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-14 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $490,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-18 Listed $519,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-26 Price Changed $539,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-14 Listed $574,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-14 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-06-27 Price Changed $219,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-26 Sold (MLS) $195,000 TREND
• 2018-01-26 Sold (MLS) $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-12-20 Contingent — TREND
• 2017-10-30 Price Changed $219,900 TREND
• 2017-09-08 Listed $224,900 TREND
• 2017-07-13 Listed $224,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,302 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.