515 N Sheridan St · Bay City, MI 48708

$65,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,981 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1920 5,968 sqft lot $33/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment Property! 10 mins away from Downtown Bay City.

Key facts

• 5,968 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 163 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $735 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.9% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.45%
• DSCR: 3.16
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,685
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -56.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
321 N Birney St	0.18mi	4/2.0	2,200 (+11%)	6mo	$210,000	$95	68
1912 5th Blvd	0.44mi	4/1.5	1,921 (-3%)	5mo	$80,000	$42	68
1509 5th St	0.30mi	4/1.5	1,844 (-7%)	7mo	$256,000	$139	67
109 N Johnson St	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,842 (-7%)	1mo	$197,000	$107	67
212 N McLellan St	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,746 (-12%)	1mo	$125,000	$72	64
2105 6th St	0.55mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,960 (-1%)	5mo	$199,900	$102	61
1708 6th St	0.26mi	4/1.5	1,704 (-14%)	6mo	$160,000	$94	57
523 N Trumbull St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,068 (+4%)	5mo	$55,000	$27	56
2229 7th St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,888 (-5%)	1mo	$60,000	$32	53
507 S Johnson St	0.74mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,010 (+2%)	5mo	$180,000	$90	52
2147 7th St	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,874 (-5%)	5mo	$189,000	$101	47
421 Harold St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,762 (-11%)	2mo	$120,000	$68	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $36,270
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $91,855
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,458 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $587/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $735

Break-even live

Break-even rent $528

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $772	-5% $753	+0% $735	+5% $716	+10% $698
Rent	-10% $620	-5% $677	+0% $735	+5% $792	+10% $850
Rate	-1.0pp $768	-0.5pp $751	base $735	+0.5pp $718	+1.0pp $701

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $65,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 144 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 143 DOM
17. 2026-01-07
    listed $65,000 Active 57-char remark

    Show marketing remark (57 chars)

    Investment Property! 10 mins away from Downtown Bay City.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $587 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $794 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$207/yr (+$17/mo · 35.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$587
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,400
• − Management: −$1,400
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $8,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,980
• After-tax cash flow: $6,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Listed $65,000 ForSaleByOwner.com

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $587 · -11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.