723 Beekman Rd #41 · Chelsea Cove, NY 12533

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 17 Days on market

Built 1988 Fair condition $69/sqft · 39% below area Est $131k · 39% under $784/mo HOA · 31% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Spring Hill Park. This well maintain home offers charming pond view when walking around the property. Perfect for those looking to downsize or purchase their first home. Addition property highlights include: parking off street, storage shed, for tools or outdoor equipment, small yard ideal for gardening, play, or intimate gatherings. The master bedroom has its own bath { Handicap accessible }. The second bath is a walk In. The Furnace is five years old and the Hot Water heater is a little over a year old. The roof could be the original roof. Conveniently located just minutes from the Taconic State Parkway, Route 55, and the Hamlet of Hopewell Junction, this home offers both serenity and accessibility. Don't miss this opportunity to own this delightful residence in the sought after Spring Hill Park!

Key facts

• Pond view
• Second bath walk in
• Storage shed

Tags

• POND VIEW
• PARKING OFF STREET
• STORAGE SHED
• MASTER BEDROOM BATH
• SECOND BATH WALK IN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $665 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 2.5% in Chelsea Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Arlington Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #106 of 590 in NY (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.

Recommended offer $78,701 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.70%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,611
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -38.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
723 Beekman Rd #48	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-6%)	1mo	$178,800	$164	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $29,959
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $82,779
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12533

• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,534 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$784
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $665

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,691

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 Miller Rd Hopewell Junction, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	750	$2,750	$3.67	43d	3	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $784 · $9,408/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 821-char remark

   Show marketing remark (821 chars)

   Welcome to Spring Hill Park. This well maintain home offers charming pond view when walking around the property. Perfect for those looking to downsize or purchase their first home. Addition property highlights include: parking off street, storage shed, for tools or outdoor equipment, small yard ideal for gardening, play, or intimate gatherings. The master bedroom has its own bath { Handicap accessible }. The second bath is a walk In. The Furnace is five years old and the Hot Water heater is a little over a year old. The roof could be the original roof. Conveniently located just minutes from the Taconic State Parkway, Route 55, and the Hamlet of Hopewell Junction, this home offers both serenity and accessibility. Don't miss this opportunity to own this delightful residence in the sought after Spring Hill Park!

2. 2026-05-01
   price $79,900 821-char remark

   Show marketing remark (821 chars)

   Welcome to Spring Hill Park. This well maintain home offers charming pond view when walking around the property. Perfect for those looking to downsize or purchase their first home. Addition property highlights include: parking off street, storage shed, for tools or outdoor equipment, small yard ideal for gardening, play, or intimate gatherings. The master bedroom has its own bath { Handicap accessible }. The second bath is a walk In. The Furnace is five years old and the Hot Water heater is a little over a year old. The roof could be the original roof. Conveniently located just minutes from the Taconic State Parkway, Route 55, and the Hamlet of Hopewell Junction, this home offers both serenity and accessibility. Don't miss this opportunity to own this delightful residence in the sought after Spring Hill Park!

3. 2026-04-30
   price $74,900 821-char remark

   Show marketing remark (821 chars)

   Welcome to Spring Hill Park. This well maintain home offers charming pond view when walking around the property. Perfect for those looking to downsize or purchase their first home. Addition property highlights include: parking off street, storage shed, for tools or outdoor equipment, small yard ideal for gardening, play, or intimate gatherings. The master bedroom has its own bath { Handicap accessible }. The second bath is a walk In. The Furnace is five years old and the Hot Water heater is a little over a year old. The roof could be the original roof. Conveniently located just minutes from the Taconic State Parkway, Route 55, and the Hamlet of Hopewell Junction, this home offers both serenity and accessibility. Don't miss this opportunity to own this delightful residence in the sought after Spring Hill Park!

4. 2026-04-30
   status Active 821-char remark

   Show marketing remark (821 chars)

   Welcome to Spring Hill Park. This well maintain home offers charming pond view when walking around the property. Perfect for those looking to downsize or purchase their first home. Addition property highlights include: parking off street, storage shed, for tools or outdoor equipment, small yard ideal for gardening, play, or intimate gatherings. The master bedroom has its own bath { Handicap accessible }. The second bath is a walk In. The Furnace is five years old and the Hot Water heater is a little over a year old. The roof could be the original roof. Conveniently located just minutes from the Taconic State Parkway, Route 55, and the Hamlet of Hopewell Junction, this home offers both serenity and accessibility. Don't miss this opportunity to own this delightful residence in the sought after Spring Hill Park!

5. 2026-04-25
   status Pending 821-char remark

   Show marketing remark (821 chars)

   Welcome to Spring Hill Park. This well maintain home offers charming pond view when walking around the property. Perfect for those looking to downsize or purchase their first home. Addition property highlights include: parking off street, storage shed, for tools or outdoor equipment, small yard ideal for gardening, play, or intimate gatherings. The master bedroom has its own bath { Handicap accessible }. The second bath is a walk In. The Furnace is five years old and the Hot Water heater is a little over a year old. The roof could be the original roof. Conveniently located just minutes from the Taconic State Parkway, Route 55, and the Hamlet of Hopewell Junction, this home offers both serenity and accessibility. Don't miss this opportunity to own this delightful residence in the sought after Spring Hill Park!

6. 2026-04-13
   listed $94,900 Active 821-char remark

   Show marketing remark (821 chars)

   Welcome to Spring Hill Park. This well maintain home offers charming pond view when walking around the property. Perfect for those looking to downsize or purchase their first home. Addition property highlights include: parking off street, storage shed, for tools or outdoor equipment, small yard ideal for gardening, play, or intimate gatherings. The master bedroom has its own bath { Handicap accessible }. The second bath is a walk In. The Furnace is five years old and the Hot Water heater is a little over a year old. The roof could be the original roof. Conveniently located just minutes from the Taconic State Parkway, Route 55, and the Hamlet of Hopewell Junction, this home offers both serenity and accessibility. Don't miss this opportunity to own this delightful residence in the sought after Spring Hill Park!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,405
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,432
• − Management: −$2,432
• − HOA: −$9,408
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $7,734
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,856
• After-tax cash flow: $6,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, paint interior walls, and replace carpeted floors with hardwood or tile. These updates would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Minor exterior siding — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to both buyers and renters
• Both update bathroom fixtures and cabinetry — modernizing the bathrooms would appeal to both buyers and renters
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpeted floors with hardwood or tile — hardwood or tile flooring would increase the home's value and appeal to a wider range of buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures and cabinetry — modernizing the bathrooms would appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpeted floors with hardwood or tile — hardwood or tile flooring would increase the home's value and appeal to a wider range of buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603270
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,597
• Composite: 63.47/100
• National rank: #613
• State rank: #106 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chelsea Cove

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Dutchess County · 188,048 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,325
• Household income: $141,585
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 190.0

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Asian 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.32%
• Current HPI: 232.2351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-15.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $79,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $74,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $94,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid