15530 S Rolling Ridge Dr · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1986 8,712 sqft lot Est $239k · 31% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is across the street from state land, is very quiet and has plenty of room with many trees. Split floorplan with a large primary bedroom, bedrooms 2 and 3 have walk in closets , skylight in the kitchen and living room, all rooms have large windows. 2 driveways and 2 carports along with very large front and rear covered porches. 3 good sized storage buildings. Interior and exterior has fresh paint with 3 coats of top quality Behr paint and the roofs have 3 coats of 15 year acrylic roof coating. Plumbing has been replaced with PEX recently, complete newer propane furnace and central air conditioning systems that work very well. New Kohler toilets, bath fans and lights in both bathro

Key facts

• Large windows
• 2 carports
• Split floorplan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• SKYLIGHT IN KITCHEN
• LARGE WINDOWS
• 2 DRIVEWAYS
• 2 CARPORTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R1-10; Lot size source: county records; Subdivision: Cordes Lakes
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Total 2 parking spaces; Attached 2-car carport; RV parking available (off-street)
• Utilities: 220-volt electric; Propane service; Private water source; Septic (conventional); Phone available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (double wide); Single-story
• Construction: Frame construction; Other roof type; Piers foundation; Two buildings on property
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Gravel driveway; Shed(s); Workshop; Corner, level lot; County-maintained road frontage; Asphalt/paved road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced-air heating (gas/propane)
• Interior features: Soaking tub; Laminate counters; Open living/dining area; High ceilings with vaulted sections; Walk-in closets; Washer/dryer connection; Laundry room; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer hookup; 29-gallon propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $612 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.1% in Cordes Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $165k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.90%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,232
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20629 E Prickly Pear Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,407 (+5%)	7mo	$199,900	$142	70
20415 E Sierra Dr E #8	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+3%)	4mo	$289,000	$209	68
20605 E Conestoga Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+6%)	6mo	$260,000	$183	67
20935 E Bright Sun (1.03 Acres) Way	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-13%)	16mo	$306,000	$261	64
20809 E Antelope Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+0%)	3mo	$239,900	$178	62
20576 E Quail Run Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+3%)	16mo	$230,500	$167	56
20720 E Larry Lane Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+14%)	6mo	$210,000	$138	54
20518 E Sierra Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,210 (-10%)	14mo	$224,900	$186	50
20542 E Stagecoach Trl	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	18mo	$220,000	$176	50
20721 E Mingus Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	7mo	$190,000	$165	49
20850 E Cedar Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (-12%)	3mo	$74,000	$63	41
20225 E Conestoga Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-13%)	16mo	$239,000	$204	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $128,767
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.54×
• Total profit: $348,402
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $460/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $612

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,231

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $460 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,089 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$629/yr (+$52/mo · 136.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$460
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $4,888
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,173
• After-tax cash flow: $6,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+157.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $175,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1996-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $460 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.