8012 W Xavier St Plan · Conroe, TX 77303

$139,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,702 sqft · Manufactured · 543 Days on market

Manufactured home Excellent condition $82/sqft · 35% below area Est $215k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.1

Listing remarks MLS

A charming rustic farmhouse blends timeless country style with modern comfort. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the home offers a spacious open floorplan that's ideal for relaxed living and easy entertaining. The layout is both cozy and functional, with plenty of room to gather, unwind, and enjoy the warmth of farmhouse living. The primary suite includes an oversized walk-in closet and a luxurious soaking tub, creating the perfect space to relax and recharge. With rustic finishes and a welcoming atmosphere throughout, this home delivers the space, charm, and comfort of true country-style living.

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Open floorplan
• Rustic finishes

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• SOAKING TUB
• RUSTIC FINISHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-300/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patterson El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 977 students, 74% FRL); Bozman Int (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 988 students, 68% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 34% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1106 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 543 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $119,300 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 543 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.77%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,000
• List price: $139,995
• Delta: -34.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10638 Altitude Way	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-6%)	0mo	$264,692	$165	71
11746 Airspeed Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,717 (+1%)	1mo	$264,990	$154	71
11891 Stratosphere St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,810 (+6%)	4mo	$269,990	$149	58
6169 White Oak Leaf Loop	1.38mi	3/2.0	1,761 (+4%)	2mo	$249,000	$141	57
12340 N Chestnut Hills Dr	1.50mi	3/2.0	1,794 (+5%)	4mo	$319,000	$178	52
9934 Sterling Place Dr	1.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,842 (+8%)	1mo	$239,000	$130	46
11885 Stratosphere St	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,889 (+11%)	2mo	$259,990	$138	46
11936 Avian Ave	0.63mi	3/2.5	2,026 (+19%)	1mo	$299,510	$148	43
10903 Atmosphere Ct	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,086 (+23%)	2mo	$289,990	$139	41
11924 Avian Ave	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,084 (+22%)	0mo	$299,576	$144	32
11940 Avian Ave	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,084 (+22%)	0mo	$305,229	$146	31
9987 Sterling Place Dr	1.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,973 (+16%)	3mo	$264,900	$134	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-27,756
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-39,658
• Equity at exit: $12,104

Cash invested: $39,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active
• Median asking: $109,995 ($70/sqft)
• Median days on market: 215 d
• This list price: 82% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +80.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1106
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,193 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $136,377

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $72	-5% $23	+0% $-25	+5% $-73	+10% $-122
Rent	-10% $-119	-5% $-72	+0% $-25	+5% $22	+10% $69
Rate	-1.0pp $45	-0.5pp $11	base $-25	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,999
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11085 Pine Acre Trails Blvd Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1382	$1,299	$0.94	6d	1	0.09mi
10726 Sunlit St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,100	$0.79	157d	1	0.39mi
11014 Inflow Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$1,460	$0.82	41d	1	0.54mi
11106 Altimeter Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1788	$1,439	$0.80	19d	1	0.60mi
9922 Sterling Place Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,707	$1.26	21d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $139,995 Active 543 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $139,995 Active 542 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $139,995 Active 541 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $139,995 Active 540 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $139,995 Active 539 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $139,995 Active 537 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $139,995 Active 536 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $139,995 Active 535 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $139,995 Active 534 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $139,995 Active 533 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $139,995 Active 532 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $139,995 Active 531 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $139,995 Active 530 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $139,995 Active 529 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $139,995 Active 528 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $139,995 Active 527 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $139,995 Active 526 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $139,995 Active 525 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $139,995 Active 524 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $139,995 Active 523 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $139,995 Active 522 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $139,995 Active 521 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $139,995 Active 520 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $139,995 Active 519 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $139,995 Active 518 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $139,995 Active 517 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $139,995 Active 516 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $139,995 Active 515 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $139,995 Active 514 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $139,995 Active 513 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $139,995 Active 512 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $139,995 Active 511 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $139,995 Active 510 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $139,995 Active 509 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $139,995 Active 508 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $139,995 Active 507 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $139,995 Active 506 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $139,995 Active 505 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $139,995 Active 504 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $139,995 Active 503 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $139,995 Active 502 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $139,995 Active 501 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $139,995 Active 500 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $139,995 Active 499 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $139,995 Active 498 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $139,995 Active 497 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $139,995 Active 496 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $139,995 Active 495 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $139,995 Active 494 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $139,995 Active 493 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,145
• − Management: −$1,145
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$2,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$645
• After-tax cash flow: $345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a fresh paint job. It's move-in ready and would benefit from some landscaping and painting to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — refreshes interior and exterior ↑
• Both Landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Patterson El F TX #2,149/4,322 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 High Conroe H S F TX #767/1,632 Nat'l #7,907/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-14 Listed $139,995 Zillow