309 Elmhurst Ave · Vine Grove, KY 40175

$196,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,107 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1966 9,583 sqft lot Est $186k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained 3 bedroom 1.5 bathroom.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Tiled walk-in shower
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• TILED WALK-IN SHOWER
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BACKYARD SPACE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Meadowbrook subdivision; Lot size approximately 0.22 acre; Directions: From Knox Ave turn right onto Edgebrook Dr. Drive 0.2 miles, turn right onto Elmhurst Ave - house on the left.
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway; No garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Cable available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Deck; Storm door(s); Chain link fence; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.0% in Vine Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#124 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $196k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,710 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.46%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,976
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Cherrywood Dr	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,100 (-1%)	18mo	$171,973	$156	75
508 Edgebrook Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,024 (-8%)	5mo	$150,000	$146	73
106 Debbie Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,029 (-7%)	13mo	$172,750	$168	66
215 Greenhill St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+4%)	7mo	$190,000	$165	65
810 Charlene Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-10%)	8mo	$174,000	$174	64
302 Glenwood Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	944 (-15%)	1mo	$180,000	$191	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-15,995
• Equity at exit: $29,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,188
• Equity at exit: $16,990

Cash invested: $55,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40175

• Home prices YoY: -6.3%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,030
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $399/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,450

Max offer price $196,500

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,125
• Closing costs: $5,895
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $196,500 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $196,500 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $196,500 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   remarks 687-char remark
5. 2026-06-09
   listed $196,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $399 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,690 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,291/yr (+$108/mo · 323.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,007
• − Property taxes: −$399
• − Insurance: −$982
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − Depreciation: −$5,716
• Taxable loss: −$292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$70
• After-tax cash flow: $3,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County
• NCES district ID: 2102490
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,728
• Composite: 31.61/100
• National rank: #5945
• State rank: #47 of 165 in KY

Livability — Vine Grove

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #5837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vine Grove, KY
• Population (ZIP): 16,283

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,573 people
• By 2030: 103,563 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 97,077 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 88,367 · -16.3%
• By 2075: 65,405 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 42,245 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.3) · D 34.5% · R 63.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -29.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+30.2 2012: R+20.8 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.55%
• Current HPI: 246.3715
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+153.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $196,500 HKARMLS
• 2015-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2015-05-27 Sold (MLS) $76,000 HKARMLS
• 2015-05-27 Sold (MLS) $76,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2014-12-10 Listed $77,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2014-12-08 Listed $77,500 HKARMLS

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $399 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.