9612 Wilkerson Cir · Escatawpa, MS 39562

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1973 0.27 ac lot Est $124k · 13% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice house in a quiet neighborhood with no thru traffic that is located 3 miles north of I-10. This 3-bedroom, 1 1/2-bathroom home has been completely renovated. New kitchen appliances, light fixtures, doors, windows, tile flooring, new air conditioning system with a 10-year warranty and much more.

Key facts

• Close to highway 613
• Close to i-10
• Efficient layout

Tags

• ESCATAWPA NEIGHBORHOOD
• EFFICIENT LAYOUT
• CLOSE TO HIGHWAY 613
• CLOSE TO I-10

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: City lot (approx. 0.27 acres)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Concrete parking surface
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence, house; One level
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year source: public records)
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Other exterior features

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (1.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling (central air)
• Interior features: Other appliances (unspecified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (39.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#211 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Moss Point Separate School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #94 of 130 in MS (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000 (39.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,552
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9721 Highway 613	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,296 (+4%)	6mo	$130,000	$100	78
9313 Hardwicke Rd	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,161 (-7%)	13mo	$115,000	$99	60
9903 Foxshire Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,147 (-8%)	24mo	$89,000	$78	52
10404 Riverbend Cir	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-12%)	21mo	$99,900	$91	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-32,876
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-41,967
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39562

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $464/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $-159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,051

Max offer price $111,787

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-80	-5% $-120	+0% $-159	+5% $-199	+10% $-238
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-193	+0% $-159	+5% $-126	+10% $-92
Rate	-1.0pp $-89	-0.5pp $-124	base $-159	+0.5pp $-195	+1.0pp $-232

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8429 Mississippi 613 Unit 3 Moss Point, MS	2.0	1.0	850	$850	$1.00	22d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $139,900 Active
3. 2017-06-26
   soldstatus 299-char remark

   Show marketing remark (299 chars)

   Nice house in a quiet neighborhood with no thru traffic that is located 3 miles north of I-10. This 3-bedroom, 1 1/2-bathroom home has been completely renovated. New kitchen appliances, light fixtures, doors, windows, tile flooring, new air conditioning system with a 10-year warranty and much more.

4. 2017-03-15
   listed $106,000 299-char remark

   Show marketing remark (299 chars)

   Nice house in a quiet neighborhood with no thru traffic that is located 3 miles north of I-10. This 3-bedroom, 1 1/2-bathroom home has been completely renovated. New kitchen appliances, light fixtures, doors, windows, tile flooring, new air conditioning system with a 10-year warranty and much more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $464 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,105 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$641/yr (+$53/mo · 138.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$464
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$4,502
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,081
• After-tax cash flow: $-829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moss Point Separate School District
• NCES district ID: 2803000
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,041
• Composite: 16.34/100
• National rank: #9205
• State rank: #94 of 130 in MS

Livability — Escatawpa

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #18602

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Escatawpa, MS
• Population (ZIP): 17,142

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 6% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.87%
• Current HPI: 182.2784
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+32.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-29 Listed $139,900 MLSU
• 2017-06-26 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2017-03-15 Listed $106,000 MLSU

Property tax history

-6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $464 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.