9030 Gulf Beach Hwy · Warrington, FL 32507

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1923 0.43 ac lot $145/sqft · 14% below area Est $231k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a move-in ready 2 Bedroom / 3 Full Bathroom home on just under ½ acre lot with charming renovations throughout! just 15 minutes to downtown Pensacola, Emerald Coast beaches, and public boat ramps — minutes from both NAS Pensacola gates. Major updates include 2022 metal roof, Hardieboard siding, recently serviced central HVAC. Open floor plan with new laminate flooring and spacious bedrooms accompanied by tile baths. Primary suite offers a stand-alone tub and large walk-in shower; guest bedroom has a walk-in closet and en-suite tiled shower. Updated kitchen, separate laundry room, ceiling fans throughout, all appliances convey. Paved driveway with ample parking. Affor

Key facts

• 2022 metal roof
• Open floor plan
• Laminate flooring

Tags

• 2022 METAL ROOF
• HARDIEBOARD SIDING
• RECENTLY SERVICED CENTRAL HVAC
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• TILE BATHS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.43 acres
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Copper electrical wiring
• Home design: Single-story home; Off-grade foundation; Frame construction; Resale property; Not attached (detached); Homestead exempt; Insulation and insulated walls (energy-efficient features)
• Construction: Metal roof; Frame construction; Off-grade foundation; One level
• Exterior features: Deck; Paved road access; County-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen (updated 1–5 years ago); Updated appliances, flooring, painted cabinets, new light fixtures, and new countertops; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12' x 14'); Additional bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11' x 15')
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; All bathrooms remodeled within the last 1–5 years; Tile showers in all bathrooms; Primary bathroom includes a new freestanding tub; Tile bathroom flooring
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Baseboards; Ceiling fans; High-speed internet; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pleasant Grove Elementary School (math 60% / reading 53%, grade C+, #816 of 2,144 statewide, top 39%, 534 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Escambia average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $199k implies a 165% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,949 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.09%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,159
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -13.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2716 Kepler Ave	0.12mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,508 (+10%)	4mo	$215,000	$143	68
2430 Dog Track Rd	0.44mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,474 (+7%)	2mo	$140,000	$95	59
2620 Mercado Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,215 (-12%)	12mo	$182,000	$150	58
8781 Bradfield Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,365 (-1%)	21mo	$249,900	$183	50
8712 Schooner Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,516 (+10%)	3mo	$277,000	$183	49
9544 Laramie Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+13%)	2mo	$268,000	$172	43
940 Vonna Jo Cir	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,471 (+7%)	3mo	$210,000	$143	42
963 Vonna Jo Cir	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,385 (+1%)	19mo	$255,000	$184	42
3225 Kinard Ave	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,288 (-6%)	12mo	$235,000	$182	41
2001 Coral St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,502 (+9%)	14mo	$287,000	$191	32
9757 Brookstone Way	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+14%)	19mo	$285,000	$181	25
951 Vonna Jo Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,576 (+14%)	19mo	$135,500	$86	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-26,199
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-23,278
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,709 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $967/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,528

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8727 Schooner Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,950	$1.52	23d	1	0.46mi
2289 Dog Track Rd Unit b Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,850	$1.73	13d	1	0.57mi
8584 Alvarado Calzada Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,200	$1.34	23d	1	0.59mi
9219 Gulf Beach Hwy Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1472	$1,249	$0.85	23d	1	0.60mi
9908 Starling Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,000	$1.48	23d	1	0.94mi
2001 W Indies Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,825	$1.21	23d	1	0.96mi
1076 Antigua Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,400	$1.30	21d	1	1.02mi
2018 Marquesas Ln Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,400	$1.25	23d	1	1.10mi
2600 S Blue Angel Pkwy Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$1,796	$1.52	13d	18	1.32mi
7895 Bay Meadows Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,200	$1.40	23d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $199,000 Active 785-char remark
16. 2025-07-11
    historical
17. 2025-05-02
    listed $200,000 Active
18. 2025-03-14
    status Active
19. 2025-03-14
    historical
20. 2025-03-07
    historical Contingent
21. 2025-02-13
    listed $200,000 Active
22. 2018-04-02
    soldstatus $75,000
23. 2018-03-30
    soldstatus $75,000
24. 2018-02-18
    listed $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $967 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,652 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$685/yr (+$57/mo · 70.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$967
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,641
• − Management: −$1,641
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$400
• After-tax cash flow: $2,121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrington, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+148.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $199,000 PARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listed $200,000 BCAR
• 2025-03-14 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2025-02-13 Listed $200,000 PARMLS
• 2018-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-30 Sold (MLS) $75,000 PARMLS
• 2018-02-18 Listed $80,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $967 · +46.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.