271 Skate Creek Rd · Ashford, WA 98304

$465,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · Other public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1976 1.06 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Near Mt. Rainier • Furnished • Guest space • Hot tubs • 1+ acre Active vacation rental that is a turn-key property located near the base of Mt. Rainier offering a fully furnished setup designed for personal use or potential short-term rental. The main home features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, plus a den. It has a spacious layout that accommodates multiple guests. Additional sleeping space is provided by a detached bunkhouse, creating flexibility for extended stays or group use. A Pavilion enhances outdoor living with an indoor kitchen and an indoor hot tub, plus an additional outdoor wood-fired hot tub, supporting year-round enjoyment. Property includes two storage/shop area

Key facts

• Indoor hot tub
• Detached bunkhouse
• Fruit trees

Tags

• DETACHED BUNKHOUSE
• INDOOR HOT TUB
• OUTDOOR WOOD-FIRED HOT TUB
• TWO STORAGE SHOP AREAS
• FRUIT TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Offers review date: Monday, May 18, 2026; On market date: Tuesday, May 5, 2026
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; RV parking
• Security: Fully fenced; Security gate; Security system
• Utilities: Water from community/shared well (well); Septic tank; Power by Lewis County PUD; Electric water heater located in well house; Cable (Dish); Internet (CenturyLink); Energy sources: Electric and wood
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Manufactured on land; One story; Main entry; Has view; Very good condition
• Construction: Wood construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Fenced (fully); Gated entry; Outbuildings; Outdoor fireplace; Patio; Shop; RV parking; Hot tub/Spa on site; Garden space; Wooded areas; Brush

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level); Second living quarters / ADU with 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Concrete; Hardwood; Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 2 showers; 1 bathtub; 2 main-level bathrooms (1 full and 1 three-quarter)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wood stove / free-standing stove; Wall furnace; No central air
• Interior features: Dining room; Fireplace (wood burning); Hot tub/Spa; Sauna; Security system; Walk-in closet(s); Water heater; Wired for generator
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $465k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $395k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $395k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#543 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-, housing B; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Eatonville School District (rural): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #116 of 291 in WA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Columbia Crest A-Stem Academy (143 students, 66% FRL); Eatonville Middle School (411 students, 45% FRL); Eatonville High School (560 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 32% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $130k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($451k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $394,921 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.26%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $47,743
• Equity at exit: $183,852

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $178,706
• Equity at exit: $265,091

Cash invested: $130,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98304

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,913/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$829
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,639

Max offer price $465,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $508	-5% $376	+0% $245	+5% $113	+10% $-18
Rent	-10% $-67	-5% $89	+0% $245	+5% $401	+10% $557
Rate	-1.0pp $479	-0.5pp $363	base $245	+0.5pp $124	+1.0pp $2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,250
• Closing costs: $13,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $465,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $465,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $465,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $465,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $465,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $465,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $465,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $465,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $465,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $480,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $480,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $480,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $480,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $480,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $480,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,913 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,557 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,644/yr (+$137/mo · 56.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥84°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,047
• − Property taxes: −$2,913
• − Insurance: −$2,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,791
• − Management: −$3,791
• − Depreciation: −$13,527
• Taxable loss: −$5,005
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,201
• After-tax cash flow: $4,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eatonville School District
• NCES district ID: 5302370
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,370
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #4971
• State rank: #116 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ashford

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #543
• US rank: #22815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 867

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Italian 7% English 6%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.02%
• Current HPI: 289.5128
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $465,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listed $480,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,913 · -28.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.