Sunrise II* Plan · Quail Ridge, FL 34638

$233,400

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,398 sqft · Townhouse · 778 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• <cozy covered patio>
• Garage
• Listed 778 days

Tags

• <COZY COVERED PATIO>

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as Plan inventory (new construction)
• Financial info: List price: $251,015
• HOA & community: HOA/community details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Utility details not provided
• Home design: New construction plan: Sunrise II*; Single-story (story count not specified)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1398; Construction details not provided
• Exterior features: Exterior details not provided

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: HVAC details not provided
• Interior features: Open plan living space
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details not provided

🏗️ New construction. The $233,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $244,650.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $233k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($150/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Quail Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#715 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 778 days — a 12% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,392 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 778 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.22%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,650
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17592 Nectar Flume Dr	0.53mi	2/2.5	1,541 (+10%)	7mo	$269,900	$175	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-45,135
• Equity at exit: $36,478

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-62,564
• Equity at exit: $21,153

Cash invested: $68,502 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34638

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 723
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,156 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,283
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,670/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,140

Max offer price $244,650

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $97	+0% $12	+5% $-72	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-158	-5% $-73	+0% $12	+5% $98	+10% $183
Rate	-1.0pp $136	-0.5pp $75	base $12	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,162
• Closing costs: $7,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11028 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,075	$1.24	26d	1	0.37mi
11028 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,075	$1.24	16d	1	0.37mi
11071 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,100	$1.26	25d	1	0.40mi
11070 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,950	$1.17	26d	1	0.42mi
11147 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,995	$1.19	26d	1	0.45mi
11236 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,000	$1.20	16d	1	0.53mi
11262 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,195	$1.31	6d	1	0.55mi
17608 Nectar Flume Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	26d	1	0.56mi
17425 Nectar Flume Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,900	$1.14	26d	1	0.70mi
11450 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,995	$1.19	19d	1	0.71mi
10981 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,000	$1.12	22d	1	0.75mi
17512 Shirewood Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,200	$1.52	25d	1	0.77mi
11103 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,350	$1.32	26d	1	0.80mi
11115 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,250	$1.35	26d	1	0.81mi
18039 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,895	$1.91	26d	1	0.98mi
17784 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,450	$1.60	26d	1	1.11mi
18267 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,095	$1.38	26d	1	1.19mi
18276 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,250	$1.47	26d	1	1.19mi
10735 Hawks Landing Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1848	$2,495	$1.35	16d	1	1.27mi
10179 Gliding Eagle Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,800	$1.53	19d	1	1.35mi
9896 Dancing Goat Pl Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,175	$1.46	26d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $233,400 Active 778 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $233,400 Active 777 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $233,200 Active 777 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $233,100 Active 776 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $233,100 Active 775 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $233,100 Active 773 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $233,100 Active 768 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $233,100 Active 767 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $233,000 Active 764 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $233,000 Active 763 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $233,000 Active 762 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 761 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 760 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,704
• − Property taxes: −$3,670
• − Insurance: −$1,223
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,070
• − Management: −$2,070
• − Depreciation: −$7,117
• Taxable loss: −$3,982
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$956
• After-tax cash flow: $1,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Quail Ridge

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #15264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,644
• Household income: $123,899
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.02%
• Current HPI: 299.2018
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.78%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B