1930 Misty Field Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$444,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,717 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2021 Excellent condition 7,274 sqft lot $164/sqft · at area comps Est $447k · at est. $132/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Whole-Home Generator Included – Estimated $15K–$20K Upgrade! Welcome to this beautiful two-story brick home built in 2021 by Coventry Homes. Located on a cul-de-sac street, this open-concept house has 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths. The chef-inspired kitchen features a huge granite island and stainless steel appliances. You will love the high ceilings and tons of natural light in the living area. There are two bedrooms downstairs, including a private primary suite with a spa-like bath. Upstairs, you will find a fun game room, a dedicated media room for movie nights and two more bedrooms with a full bathroom. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard with a covered patio and a sprinkle

Key facts

• Spa-like bath
• Huge granite island
• 7,274 sq ft lot

Tags

• WHOLE-HOME GENERATOR INCLUDED
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• HUGE GRANITE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• SPA-LIKE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a subdivision with curbs and gutters; Road surface: concrete; Lot dimensions approximately 45 x 157
• HOA & community: HOA: SPRIA; Annual association fee; Association fee includes clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilities; Community amenities: pool, clubhouse, fitness center, playground, dog park, picnic area, trails, park, sport courts including basketball, tennis and pickleball, meeting/party room, golf course, lake/pond

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Generator (electric)
• Home design: Residential property; Faces west; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Builder: Coventry Homes; Built in 2021
• Construction: Brick exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Covered deck/patio; Patio; Private yard; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fencing; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Paved driveway; Tennis court(s); Pond on lot; Near golf course; Side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Garbage disposal; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered hardwood planks; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Thermostat (programmable)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Reverse osmosis system; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $445k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $445k).
• Recommended offer: $438k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,980/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($438k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $438,226 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.14%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $447,455
• List price: $444,900
• Delta: 2.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1919 Waters Branch Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,591 (-5%)	7mo	$439,990	$170	82
1722 Country Air Ln	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,773 (+2%)	6mo	$419,000	$151	80
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,517 (-7%)	5mo	$359,900	$143	79
1639 Rosedale Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,763 (+2%)	4mo	$399,950	$145	79
1706 Country Air Ln	0.27mi	4/3.5	2,700 (-1%)	6mo	$375,000	$139	79
2119 Long Spring Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,522 (-7%)	8mo	$410,989	$163	72
1506 Country Air Ln	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,808 (+3%)	4mo	$425,000	$151	71
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-12%)	3mo	$365,000	$153	70
8703 Red Heron Ln	0.30mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,615 (-4%)	8mo	$459,000	$176	66
1610 Country Air Ln	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,388 (-12%)	0mo	$369,900	$155	64
8711 Fairbrook Dr	0.27mi	4/3.5	2,413 (-11%)	6mo	$409,900	$170	62
9507 Shaded Tree Dr	0.52mi	4/3.5	2,935 (+8%)	4mo	$445,000	$152	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-50,922
• Equity at exit: $93,308

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-62,924
• Equity at exit: $86,426

Cash invested: $124,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,333
• Tax from tax record: −$1,062 /mo · $12,740/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,046
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,783

Max offer price $444,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $407	-5% $281	+0% $155	+5% $30	+10% $-96
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-41	+0% $155	+5% $352	+10% $549
Rate	-1.0pp $380	-0.5pp $269	base $155	+0.5pp $40	+1.0pp $-77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,225
• Closing costs: $13,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.07mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	2d	1	0.28mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	44d	1	0.86mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	11d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $444,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $444,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $444,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $444,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $444,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $444,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $444,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $444,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $444,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $444,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $444,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $444,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $444,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    listed $459,900 Active 805-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,740 · $1,062/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,740 · $1,062/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,921
• − Property taxes: −$12,740
• − Insurance: −$3,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,781
• − Management: −$4,781
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$12,943
• Taxable loss: −$5,013
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,203
• After-tax cash flow: $3,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This 2021 Coventry Homes two-story brick home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both furniture — improves the home's livability and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both furniture — improves the home's livability and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $444,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Listed $444,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $459,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,740 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.