Is 1930 Misty Field Dr in Sienna, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 2.2% cap rate and $-1,408/mo modeled cash flow at a $409,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1930 Misty Field Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 2.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,664/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 33.37

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +10.8/15.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Schools +4.6/10.0
Appreciation +4.2/10.0
Cash flow +2.6/30.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
1% rule +1.5/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0

$409,000

1930 Misty Field Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,717 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2021 Excellent condition 7,274 sqft lot 2-car garage $151/sqft · at area comps Est $442k · 7% under $132/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

* * OPEN HOUSE 1-3PM * * Whole-Home Generator Included – Estimated $15K–$20K Upgrade! Welcome to this beautiful two-story brick home built in 2021 by Coventry Homes. Located on a cul-de-sac street, this open-concept house has 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths. The chef-inspired kitchen features a huge granite island and stainless steel appliances. You will love the high ceilings and tons of natural light in the living area. There are two bedrooms downstairs, including a private primary suite with a spa-like bath. Upstairs, you will find a fun game room, a dedicated media room for movie nights and two more bedrooms with a full bathroom.

Key facts

Cul-de-sac street
Whole-home generator
Huge granite island

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $409k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (37.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (34.9% below list).
Recommended offer: $256k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 2.8% in Sienna — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1941 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,666 (37.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.65% ✗
Cap rate: 2.16%
Cash-on-cash: -14.75%
DSCR: 0.34
GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $441,636
List price: $409,000
Delta: -7.39%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8723 Azalea Crossing Via	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,496 (-8%)	2mo	$599,000	$240	79
2111 Amelia Way Dr	0.25mi	4/3.5	2,640 (-3%)	3mo	$400,000	$152	79
2006 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.10mi	4/3.5	2,922 (+8%)	4mo	$600,878	$206	77
1627 Clover Ct	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,595 (-4%)	1mo	$429,000	$165	77
9426 Orchard Trl	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,752 (+1%)	1mo	$516,888	$188	74
8803 Oak Springs Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,393 (-12%)	1mo	$383,333	$160	70
9311 Crescent Mill Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,577 (-5%)	4mo	$419,900	$163	69
1907 Creekwood Cv	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,935 (+8%)	3mo	$518,888	$177	67
8906 Stanley Oak Dr	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-12%)	3mo	$384,900	$162	66
2326 Calm Channel Ct	0.48mi	4/3.5	2,526 (-7%)	3mo	$412,000	$163	61
8831 Morning Glow Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,388 (-12%)	4mo	$370,000	$155	59
9510 Spring Rose Dr	0.58mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,831 (+4%)	3mo	$588,989	$208	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -32.8%
Equity multiple: -0.22×
Total profit: $-139,986
Equity at exit: $85,779

10-year hold

IRR: -34.8%
Equity multiple: -1.14×
Total profit: $-244,515
Equity at exit: $79,452

Cash invested: $114,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 151 active · 34 under contract
Months of supply: 33.6 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $540,990 ($188/sqft)
Median days on market: 174 d
This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -13.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

Home prices YoY: -0.8%
Rents YoY: -0.1%
Active inventory: 1941
Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,664 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,145
Tax from tax record: −$1,065 /mo · $12,783/yr
Insurance: −$170
HOA: −$132
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
Net cashflow: $-1,408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,446

Max offer price $255,666

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,176	-5% $-1,292	+0% $-1,408	+5% $-1,524	+10% $-1,639
Rent	-10% $-1,618	-5% $-1,513	+0% $-1,408	+5% $-1,303	+10% $-1,198
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,202	-0.5pp $-1,304	base $-1,408	+0.5pp $-1,514	+1.0pp $-1,622

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $102,250
Closing costs: $12,270
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1914 Misty Field Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2051	$2,200	$1.07	10d	1	0.00mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	163d	1	0.07mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	116d	1	0.28mi
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2990	$3,400	$1.14	127d	1	0.32mi
1523 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1858	$2,500	$1.35	69d	1	0.44mi
1539 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2812	$1,495	$0.53	10d	1	0.44mi
1539 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2812	$1,495	$0.53	69d	1	0.44mi
8735 Morris Woods Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	90d	1	0.63mi
8735 Morris Woods Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	10d	1	0.63mi
2507 Manor Valley Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1870	$1,900	$1.02	10d	1	0.69mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	184d	1	0.86mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	151d	1	1.01mi
10614 Kingston Spring Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2800	$3,499	$1.25	92d	1	1.35mi
1414 Emma Lake Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2337	$2,750	$1.18	119d	1	1.35mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Full ownership
HOA & community: Part of SPRIA communityAnnual association feeAssociation fee covers clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilitiesCommunity amenities include pool, fitness center, clubhouse, playground, dog park, picnic areas, trails, sport courts (basketball, tennis, pickleball), golf course, lake/pond, meeting/party room

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garageDriveway parking
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerGenerator available for electric
Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2021Faces westBrick constructionSlab foundation
Construction: Brick exteriorComposition roof
Exterior features: Covered patioCovered deck/patio optionsFully fenced backyard with back-yard fencingSprinkler/irrigation systemPaved drivewayPrivate yardOn-site pondNear golf courseSide yardTennis court(s) (association)

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenGas rangeMicrowaveDisposalGranite countertopsKitchen islandPantry
Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms (including bedroom on main level)
Flooring: CarpetEngineered hardwood plankTileVinyl
Bathrooms: 3 full bathroomsDouble vanity in primary bathSoaking tub and separate shower
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)Programmable thermostat
Interior features: Reverse osmosis systemDouble vanitiesEn suite bathroomMain-level full bathGranite countertopsHigh ceilingsKitchen islandMain-level primary bedroomPantrySoaking tubSeparate showerTub/shower combinationWalk-in closetsWindow treatmentsCeiling fansKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatWindow coverings
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $409,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $409,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $409,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $409,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $409,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $409,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $409,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $409,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $409,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $409,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $409,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $409,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $409,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $409,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $409,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $409,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $409,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $409,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $409,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $409,000 Active 45 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $409,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $409,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $409,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $409,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $409,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $409,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $409,000 Active 38 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $409,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $409,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $409,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $409,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $409,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $409,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $409,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $409,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $409,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $409,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $409,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $409,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $409,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $409,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $409,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $409,000 Active 22 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $409,000 Active 21 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $409,000 Active 20 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $409,000 Active 19 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $409,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $409,000 Active 17 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $409,000 Active 16 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $409,000 Active 15 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $12,783 · $1,065/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $12,783 · $1,065/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 71% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $31,968
− Mortgage interest: −$22,910
− Property taxes: −$12,783
− Insurance: −$2,045
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,557
− Management: −$2,557
− HOA: −$1,584
− Depreciation: −$11,898
Taxable loss: −$24,368

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,848
After-tax cash flow: $-11,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This 2021 Coventry Homes two-story brick home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both furniture — improves the home's livability and appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

District: Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID: 4819650
Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $82,360
Composite: 44.61/100
National rank: #2779
State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place: Sienna, TX
County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 84,221
Household income: $129,151
Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
Current HPI: 212.3573
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

2026-09-04 Price Changed $409,000 HARMLS
2026-09-04 Listed $409,000 HARMLS
2026-08-11 Price Changed $419,000 HARMLS
2026-08-05 Price Changed $428,000 HARMLS
2026-07-17 Price Changed $429,000 HARMLS
2026-06-23 Price Changed $437,900 HARMLS
2026-06-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-05-28 Price Changed $444,900 HARMLS
2026-05-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-05-28 Listed $444,900 HARMLS
2026-04-30 Listed $459,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $12,783 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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