Is 1930 Misty Field Dr in Sienna, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C- with a 6.2% cap rate and $-40/mo modeled cash flow at a $428,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1930 Misty Field Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 6.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $4,527/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C- Composite 50.12

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +12.8/30.0
ARV discount +9.5/15.0
1% rule +5.6/10.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Schools +4.6/10.0
Appreciation +4.2/10.0
DSCR +3.8/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0

$428,000

1930 Misty Field Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,717 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2021 Excellent condition 7,274 sqft lot 2-car garage $158/sqft · at area comps Est $447k · at est. $132/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Whole-Home Generator Included – Estimated $15K–$20K Upgrade! Welcome to this beautiful two-story brick home built in 2021 by Coventry Homes. Located on a cul-de-sac street, this open-concept house has 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths. The chef-inspired kitchen features a huge granite island and stainless steel appliances. You will love the high ceilings and tons of natural light in the living area. There are two bedrooms downstairs, including a private primary suite with a spa-like bath. Upstairs, you will find a fun game room, a dedicated media room for movie nights and two more bedrooms with a full bathroom.

Key facts

Spa-like bath
Huge granite island
7,274 sq ft lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $428k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-483/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $421k (1.7% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $428k).
Recommended offer: $415k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1543 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($415k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $415,160 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.06% ✓
Cap rate: 6.18%
Cash-on-cash: -0.40%
DSCR: 0.98
GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $447,455
List price: $428,000
Delta: 2.78%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2010 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,529 (-7%)	2mo	$574,900	$227	82
2006 Ironwood Pass Dr	0.10mi	4/3.5	2,922 (+8%)	1mo	$600,878	$206	80
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,517 (-7%)	6mo	$359,900	$143	78
1639 Rosedale Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,763 (+2%)	6mo	$399,950	$145	78
9311 Crescent Mill Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,577 (-5%)	1mo	$419,900	$163	71
1506 Country Air Ln	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,808 (+3%)	5mo	$425,000	$151	70
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-12%)	4mo	$365,000	$153	69
2326 Calm Channel Ct	0.48mi	4/3.5	2,526 (-7%)	0mo	$412,000	$163	64
1610 Country Air Ln	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,388 (-12%)	2mo	$369,900	$155	63
8831 Morning Glow Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,388 (-12%)	1mo	$370,000	$155	62
9510 Spring Rose Dr	0.58mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,831 (+4%)	0mo	$588,989	$208	59
9507 Shaded Tree Dr	0.52mi	4/3.5	2,935 (+8%)	6mo	$445,000	$152	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -12.8%
Equity multiple: 0.50×
Total profit: $-60,322
Equity at exit: $89,764

10-year hold

IRR: -9.8%
Equity multiple: 0.31×
Total profit: $-83,049
Equity at exit: $83,143

Cash invested: $119,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 139 active · 22 under contract
Months of supply: 32.1 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $539,995 ($191/sqft)
Median days on market: 99 d
This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -13.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

Home prices YoY: -0.8%
Rents YoY: -0.1%
Active inventory: 1543
Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $4,527 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,244
Tax from tax record: −$1,062 /mo · $12,740/yr
Insurance: −$178
HOA: −$132
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$951
Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,578

Max offer price $420,884

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $81	+0% $-40	+5% $-161	+10% $-283
Rent	-10% $-398	-5% $-219	+0% $-40	+5% $139	+10% $317
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $69	base $-40	+0.5pp $-151	+1.0pp $-264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $107,000
Closing costs: $12,840
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2143	$5,125	$2.39	0d	1	0.07mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	71d	1	0.07mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$5,700	$2.66	2d	1	0.28mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	25d	1	0.28mi
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2990	$3,400	$1.14	35d	1	0.32mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	93d	1	0.86mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	59d	1	1.01mi
10614 Kingston Spring Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2800	$3,499	$1.25	0d	1	1.35mi
1414 Emma Lake Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2337	$2,750	$1.18	28d	1	1.35mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Full ownership
HOA & community: Part of SPRIA communityAnnual association feeAssociation amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, tennis and pickleball courts, basketball and sport courts, playground, dog park, trails, picnic areas, meeting/party rooms, golf course, lake/pond

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage2-car garageDriveway parking
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerGenerator electrical setup
Home design: Residential property built in 2021Brick exteriorFaces westSlab foundation
Construction: Brick constructionComposition roof
Exterior features: Covered patioCovered deck and patio areasFully fenced backyard with backyard fencingPrivate yardSprinkler/irrigation systemPaved drivewayPatioTennis courts (association)Pond on lotNear golf courseSide yard

Interior

Kitchen: Gas rangeElectric ovenMicrowaveDishwasherDisposal
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (15 x 14)Additional bedroom on first floor (9 x 9)Bedrooms on second floor (13 x 10; 14 x 11)Home has 4 potential bedrooms
Flooring: Engineered hardwood plankCarpetTileVinyl
Bathrooms: 3 full bathroomsPrimary bathroom (10 x 8)
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)Thermostat (programmable)
Interior features: High ceilingsKitchen/dining comboKitchen islandPantryGranite countersDouble vanitySoaking tubSeparate showerTub/shower combinationWindow coveringsCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatReverse osmosis system
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupUtility room on first floor (6 x 5)

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $428,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $428,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-08-05

pricedays on market $428,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $429,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $429,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $429,000 Active 38 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $429,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $429,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $429,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $429,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $429,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $429,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $429,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $429,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $429,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-07-18

pricedays on market $429,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $437,900 Active 23 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $437,900 Active 22 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $437,900 Active 21 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $437,900 Active 20 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $437,900 Active 19 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $437,900 Active 18 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $437,900 Active 17 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $437,900 Active 16 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $437,900 Active 14 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $437,900 Active 13 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $437,900 Active 12 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $437,900 Active 11 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $437,900 Active 10 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $437,900 Active 9 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $437,900 Active 8 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $437,900 Active 7 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $437,900 Active 6 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $437,900 Active 5 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $437,900 Active 4 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $437,900 Active 3 DOM
2026-06-24

pricedays on marketlisting id $437,900 Active 1 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $444,900 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $444,900 Active 24 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $444,900 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $444,900 Active 20 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $444,900 Active 19 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $444,900 Active 18 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $444,900 Active 16 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $444,900 Active 12 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $444,900 Active 11 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $444,900 Active 10 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $444,900 Active 7 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $444,900 Active 6 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $444,900 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $12,740 · $1,062/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $12,740 · $1,062/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 71% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $54,322
− Mortgage interest: −$23,975
− Property taxes: −$12,740
− Insurance: −$2,140
− Repairs & maintenance: −$4,346
− Management: −$4,346
− HOA: −$1,584
− Depreciation: −$12,451
Taxable loss: −$7,259

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,742
After-tax cash flow: $1,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This 2021 Coventry Homes two-story brick home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both furniture — improves the home's livability and appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

District: Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID: 4819650
Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $82,360
Composite: 44.61/100
National rank: #2779
State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place: Sienna, TX
County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 84,221
Household income: $129,151
Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
Current HPI: 212.3573
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

2026-07-17 Price Changed $429,000 HARMLS
2026-06-23 Price Changed $437,900 HARMLS
2026-06-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-06-23 Listed $437,900 HARMLS
2026-05-28 Price Changed $444,900 HARMLS
2026-05-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-05-28 Listed $444,900 HARMLS
2026-04-30 Listed $459,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,740 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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