16 Virginia Ln · Providence, RI 02908

$630,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,340 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2024 3,600 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Brand NEW Construction reaching completion! This BEAUTIFUL TWO FAMILY home comes with many great benefits! Featuring two spectacular apartments! Each unit offers an open floor plan, 3 bedrooms, two full bathrooms, GORGEOUS kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, EFFICIENT electric heating system, central A/C, and SO MUCH MORE! Come and view all of its great features and be the one to own this home. Don't let this one go by! You deserve a NEW - READY - TURN KEY AND INCOME PRODUCING Home! Close to shopping centers, schools, hospitals, and much more. Easy Highway access! Live comfortably and collected rent at the same time OR make it your income property. We can't prom

Key facts

• 3,600 sq ft lot
• Built 2024
• Listed 35 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $630k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive. Per door: $43/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $512k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $512k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.0% in Providence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#2 in RI, #794 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Providence (urban): math 8% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #34 of 39 in RI (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: George J. West El. School (math 7% / reading 13%, grade F, #148 of 167 statewide, top 90%, 601 students, 84% FRL); Nathanael Greene Middle (math 10% / reading 23%, grade F, #37 of 57 statewide, top 64%, 808 students, 85% FRL); Central High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #53 of 58 statewide, top 96%, 1,302 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,124/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1561% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($611k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $300k; list at $630k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $512,400 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-83,789
• Equity at exit: $93,935

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-10,508
• Equity at exit: $54,471

Cash invested: $176,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 31 Tenant-Leaning
• State Rhode Island: 31 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; strong tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 02908

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 20.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,124 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,304
• Tax from tax record: −$396 /mo · $4,750/yr
• Insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,076
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,015

Max offer price $630,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $442	-5% $264	+0% $86	+5% $-92	+10% $-271
Rent	-10% $-319	-5% $-117	+0% $86	+5% $288	+10% $491
Rate	-1.0pp $403	-0.5pp $246	base $86	+0.5pp $-77	+1.0pp $-243

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$5,124
Total (2 units)			$5,124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $157,500
• Closing costs: $18,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2024-03-26
   status Pending
2. 2024-02-21
   listed $630,000 Active
3. 2023-12-28
   historical
4. 2023-12-02
   listed $620,000 Active
5. 2018-09-18
   soldstatus $300,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast RI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,750 · $396/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,509 · $626/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,759/yr (+$230/mo · 58.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,290
• − Property taxes: −$4,750
• − Insurance: −$3,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,919
• − Management: −$4,919
• − Depreciation: −$18,327
• Taxable loss: −$9,867
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,368
• After-tax cash flow: $3,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Providence
• NCES district ID: 4400900
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,197
• Composite: 10.12/100
• National rank: #9803
• State rank: #34 of 39 in RI

Livability — Providence

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #794

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence, RI
• County: Providence County · 548,917 people
• City population: 212,734
• Metro: Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
• Population (ZIP): 39,500
• Household income: $73,081
• Rent vs Own: 54.0% rent · 46.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1561.0

Population outlook (Providence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 653,469 people
• By 2030: 660,819 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 672,747 · +3.0%
• By 2050: 683,741 · +4.6%
• By 2075: 720,435 · +10.2%
• By 2100: 741,582 · +13.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 15% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 16%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 4% Hispanic 3% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Providence

• 2024 margin: D (+14.4) · D 56.1% · R 41.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 34.4pp · 2024: 14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.4 2020: D+22.9 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+34.9 2008: D+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.12%
• Current HPI: 407.0502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.46%
• Metro: Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in RI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$373B
▸Food Distribution	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$14B
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$4B

Price history

+110.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-26 Pending — RIS
• 2024-02-21 Listed $630,000 RIS
• 2023-12-28 Listing Removed — RIS
• 2023-12-02 Listed $620,000 RIS
• 2018-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,750 · +930.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.