Phoenix Plan · Bixby, OK 74008

$299,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,535 sqft · SingleFamily · 348 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Brick exteriors
• Open kitchen

Tags

• PREMIUM JAMES HARDIE SIDING
• BRICK EXTERIORS
• OPEN KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• SECLUDED MASTER SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 15250 S 37th East Ave, Bixby OK 74008; Listing provided by Zillow (information deemed reliable but not guaranteed)
• Financial info: List price $299,490

Exterior

• Home design: Phoenix plan single-family home; Model/plan inventory: Plan; Active listing
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,535 square feet
• Exterior features: Located in Bixby, south-facing street prefix (S)

Interior

• Kitchen: Included in open living area (plan-specific)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floor plan (Phoenix plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $299,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $366,865.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-497 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.6% in Bixby — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#24 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bixby (suburban): math 39% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #15 of 270 in OK (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 789 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,818 units permitted in Tulsa County in 2024 (518 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulsa County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 348 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,037 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 348 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.80%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $366,865
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3402 E 153rd St S	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,535 (0%)	6mo	$336,229	$219	89
3422 E 153rd Pl S	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-8%)	3mo	$336,485	$239	78
3555 E 156th St S	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,735 (+13%)	13mo	$378,900	$218	55
2606 E 151st St S	0.42mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,707 (+11%)	8mo	$625,000	$366	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-90,167
• Equity at exit: $54,701

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-115,443
• Equity at exit: $31,720

Cash invested: $102,722 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74008

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 789
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,580 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,924
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$459 /mo · $5,503/yr
• Insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $-497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,209

Max offer price $294,973

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,716
• Closing costs: $11,006
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14734 S Urbana Ave Bixby, OK	4.0	2.0	2020	$2,500	$1.24	3d	1	1.07mi
14727 S Urbana Ave Bixby, OK	3.0	2.0	2145	$3,000	$1.40	23d	1	1.10mi
14727 S Urbana Ave Bixby, OK	3.0	2.0	2145	$2,500	$1.17	16d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,490 Active 348 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,490 Active 347 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,490 Active 346 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,490 Active 345 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,490 Active 343 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,490 Active 342 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,490 Active 340 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,490 Active 339 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,490 Active 338 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,490 Active 337 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,490 Active 333 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,490 Active 332 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,490 Active 331 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,490 Active 330 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,550
• − Property taxes: −$5,503
• − Insurance: −$1,834
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,477
• − Management: −$2,477
• − Depreciation: −$10,672
• Taxable loss: −$12,550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,012
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bixby
• NCES district ID: 4004500
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $75,727
• Composite: 34.9/100
• National rank: #5081
• State rank: #15 of 270 in OK

Livability — Bixby

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #6029

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bixby, OK
• County: Tulsa County · 640,811 people
• City population: 34,006
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• Population (ZIP): 34,006
• Household income: $104,000
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 525.0

Population outlook (Tulsa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 723,846 people
• By 2030: 766,033 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 851,386 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 938,389 · +29.6%
• By 2075: 1,166,011 · +61.1%
• By 2100: 1,350,277 · +86.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 5% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulsa

• 2024 margin: R (+15.2) · D 41.3% · R 56.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.2pp toward D · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+22.9 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.20%
• Current HPI: 195.2538
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.34%
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B