112 Water Gate Dr · Lynchburg, VA 24502

$289,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,856 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1987 9,422 sqft lot Est $340k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own a two‑story duplex with 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths per unit, plus an unfinished basement for storage or future expansion. Each side includes a heat pump and appliances convey. Ideal for investors or homeowners looking to offset their mortgage by renting the second unit.

Key facts

• 9,422 sq ft lot
• Built 1987
• Listed 18 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-498/yr) — negative. Per door: $-21/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Elementary (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 475 students, 90% FRL); Sandusky Middle (math 29% / reading 52%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 568 students, 96% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 61% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $230k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,300 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $339,998
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -14.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-44,892
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-22,225
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 21.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,223 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,879/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,276

Max offer price $282,573

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $41	+0% $-41	+5% $-124	+10% $-206
Rent	-10% $-217	-5% $-129	+0% $-41	+5% $46	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $32	base $-41	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-193

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2.0	1.5	$2,224
Total (2 units)			$2,223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Aaron Pl #605 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,795	$1.18	15d	1	0.18mi
110 Aaron Pl #611 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1490	$1,925	$1.29	22d	1	0.18mi
1816 Wards Ferry Rd Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.5	1432	$825	$0.58	45d	1	0.21mi
124 Palmer Dr Lynchburg, VA	5.0	3.0	1250	$2,600	$2.08	22d	1	0.54mi
556 Leesville Rd #306 Lynchburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1520	$2,100	$1.38	45d	1	0.60mi
556 Leesville Rd Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,695	$1.06	15d	1	0.60mi
5900 Edgewood Ave Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1528	$1,400	$0.92	15d	1	0.75mi
1600 Wards Ferry Rd #907 Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.5	1782	$1,895	$1.06	45d	1	0.82mi
1600 Wards Ferry Rd #1207 Lynchburg, VA	4.0	4.5	1728	$2,600	$1.50	45d	1	0.82mi
7222 Richland Dr Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	2164	$1,950	$0.90	45d	1	0.97mi
217 Bentley Grove Way Lynchburg, VA	5.0	3.0	2536	$3,495	$1.38	22d	1	1.06mi
913 Sandusky Dr Lynchburg, VA	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,200	$1.00	15d	1	1.11mi
1116 Chestnut Hill Dr Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	1818	$1,895	$1.04	45d	1	1.32mi
1116 Chestnut Hill Dr Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	15d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   Great opportunity to own a two‑story duplex with 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths per unit, plus an unfinished basement for storage or future expansion. Each side includes a heat pump and appliances convey. Ideal for investors or homeowners looking to offset their mortgage by renting the second unit.

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $289,900 Active 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   Great opportunity to own a two‑story duplex with 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths per unit, plus an unfinished basement for storage or future expansion. Each side includes a heat pump and appliances convey. Ideal for investors or homeowners looking to offset their mortgage by renting the second unit.

3. 2024-04-17
   soldstatus $230,000
4. 1994-02-03
   soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,879 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$498/yr (+$42/mo · 26.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$1,879
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,134
• − Management: −$2,134
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$5,593
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,342
• After-tax cash flow: $845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+241.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $289,900 LMLS
• 2024-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 1994-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,879 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.