529 Shorty Hill Rd · Springdale, AR 72764

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,346 sqft · Manufactured public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1986 0.29 ac lot $118/sqft · 17% below area Est $192k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Real Property = Qualifies for secondary financing! Recently updated: New fixtures, New floors, Interior Paint, New Appliances: Gas Range, Mini-split, Water Heater, 432 sqft of covered porch and 700 sqft of secure storage. Where else can you find this much house for under $200k? Great location on a quiet road close to lots of Springdale amenities.

Key facts

• New floors
• Interior paint
• New appliances

Tags

• NEW FIXTURES
• NEW FLOORS
• INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• MINI-SPLIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.3% in Springdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#48 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+, employment D+.
• Springdale School District (urban): math 38% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #100 of 238 in AR (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 369 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $102k; list at $159k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.07%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,919
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -17.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-11,691
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $7,210
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72764

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,492 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $645/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,207

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3833 Sanday Ave Springdale, AR	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,775	$1.27	44d	1	0.50mi
2941 Adrian Ave Unit A Springdale, AR	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	14d	1	0.70mi
2755 Alton Ave Springdale, AR	2.0	1.0	960	$1,295	$1.35	44d	1	0.84mi
249 Erin Pl Springdale, AR	2.0	1.0	975	$1,095	$1.12	44d	1	0.96mi
282 Erin Pl Springdale, AR	2.0	1.0	975	$1,095	$1.12	44d	1	1.00mi
1907 E Emma Ave Springdale, AR	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	14d	1	1.19mi
2215 Hidden Lake St Springdale, AR	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,250	$1.04	44d	3	1.27mi
2528 Woodford St Springdale, AR	4.0	2.0	1342	$1,500	$1.12	44d	1	1.43mi
2321 Orchard St Springdale, AR	2.0	2.0	930	$900	$0.97	23d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $159,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   status $159,000 Pending 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 126 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    status Pending 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Real Property = Qualifies for secondary financing! Recently updated: New fixtures, New floors, Interior Paint, New Appliances: Gas Range, Mini-split, Water Heater, 432 sqft of covered porch and 700 sqft of secure storage. Where else can you find this much house for under $200k? Great location on a quiet road close to lots of Springdale amenities.

17. 2026-04-28
    price $165,000 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Real Property = Qualifies for secondary financing! Recently updated: New fixtures, New floors, Interior Paint, New Appliances: Gas Range, Mini-split, Water Heater, 432 sqft of covered porch and 700 sqft of secure storage. Where else can you find this much house for under $200k? Great location on a quiet road close to lots of Springdale amenities.

18. 2026-04-08
    price $175,000 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Real Property = Qualifies for secondary financing! Recently updated: New fixtures, New floors, Interior Paint, New Appliances: Gas Range, Mini-split, Water Heater, 432 sqft of covered porch and 700 sqft of secure storage. Where else can you find this much house for under $200k? Great location on a quiet road close to lots of Springdale amenities.

19. 2026-03-09
    price $185,000 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Real Property = Qualifies for secondary financing! Recently updated: New fixtures, New floors, Interior Paint, New Appliances: Gas Range, Mini-split, Water Heater, 432 sqft of covered porch and 700 sqft of secure storage. Where else can you find this much house for under $200k? Great location on a quiet road close to lots of Springdale amenities.

20. 2026-01-15
    listed $195,000 Active 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Real Property = Qualifies for secondary financing! Recently updated: New fixtures, New floors, Interior Paint, New Appliances: Gas Range, Mini-split, Water Heater, 432 sqft of covered porch and 700 sqft of secure storage. Where else can you find this much house for under $200k? Great location on a quiet road close to lots of Springdale amenities.

21. 2025-12-01
    soldstatus $102,200
22. 2022-09-20
    soldstatus $60,000
23. 1988-08-01
    soldstatus $10,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $645 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,018 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$372/yr (+$31/mo · 57.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$645
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,433
• − Management: −$1,433
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $70
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$17
• After-tax cash flow: $2,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springdale School District
• NCES district ID: 0512660
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,469
• Composite: 31.18/100
• National rank: #6046
• State rank: #100 of 238 in AR

Livability — Springdale

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #7326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Washington County · 252,056 people
• City population: 104,811
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• Population (ZIP): 58,719
• Household income: $65,898
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1352.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,748 people
• By 2030: 296,414 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 346,874 · +27.6%
• By 2050: 398,552 · +46.7%
• By 2075: 523,309 · +92.6%
• By 2100: 615,280 · +126.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 33% Two or more races 28% Pacific Islander 11% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Asian/Pacific 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.7) · D 45.1% · R 51.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -13.1pp · 2024: -6.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.7 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+10.4 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+13.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -269.05%
• Current HPI: 297.924
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.87%
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+1471.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $165,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $175,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $185,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $195,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $102,200 Public Records
• 2022-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1988-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $645 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.