10401 N Cave Creek Rd #158 · Phoenix, AZ 85020

$37,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market

Built 1967 Fair condition Est $29k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

On Lease Land: Check out this adorable 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom mobile home in a 55+ community! Discover the bright living areas ready to bring you joy, showcasing soft carpeting underfoot, tile in select areas, a soothing palette that makes every space feel welcoming, and plenty of natural light. The kitchen boasts crisp white cabinetry for ample storage, shelves, spacious counters, and built-in appliances for a seamless cooking experience. The main bedroom promises a good night's sleep, complete with a private exit for added comfort and a bathroom. Convenient laundry room inside. Out back, you'll have a cozy covered patio perfect for morning coffee. What are you waiting for? Make it yours no

Key facts

• Spacious counters
• Soft carpeting
• Bright living areas

Tags

• BRIGHT LIVING AREAS
• SOFT CARPETING
• TILE IN SELECT AREAS
• CRISP WHITE CABINETRY
• AMPLE STORAGE
• SPACIOUS COUNTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease with a monthly fee of $820; No association fees; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 open parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: City water and private water company; Private sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile housing; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Vertical siding and painted wood frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Desert front and back landscaping; Storage; Chain-link and wood fencing; Private maintained road; Mountain view

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Pantry; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (total 1 bathroom)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Ceiling fan(s); Programmable thermostat; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: High-speed internet; No interior steps; Pantry; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Bath grab bars; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $746 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $259 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,937 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.30%
• DSCR: 4.80
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $28,800
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #252	0.16mi	2/1.5	912 (+1%)	9mo	$29,000	$32	81
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #93	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	952 (+6%)	1mo	$18,700	$20	81
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #301	0.09mi	2/1.0	850 (-6%)	9mo	$24,000	$28	79
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #242	0.09mi	2/1.5	896 (-0%)	23mo	$42,500	$47	74
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #315	0.09mi	2/1.0	860 (-4%)	19mo	$27,500	$32	73
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #50	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,030 (+14%)	4mo	$57,500	$56	69
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #275	0.16mi	2/1.0	792 (-12%)	8mo	$45,000	$57	66
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #12	0.16mi	2/2.0	980 (+9%)	10mo	$47,500	$48	65
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #263	0.16mi	1/1.0 (-1)	784 (-13%)	18mo	$22,000	$28	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.60×
• Total profit: $37,752
• Equity at exit: $5,591

10-year hold

• IRR: 84.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.60×
• Total profit: $79,750
• Equity at exit: $3,242

Cash invested: $10,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85020

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,273 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$197
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$47 /mo · $562/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $746

Break-even live

Break-even rent $328

Max offer price $37,500

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,375
• Closing costs: $1,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1525 E Cheryl Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$1,157	$1.37	1d	6	0.14mi
1420 E Brown St Unit C Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	1d	1	0.16mi
10410 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1227	$1,400	$1.14	1d	4	0.19mi
1551 E Christy Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	702	$950	$1.35	24d	1	0.21mi
10644 N 15th Way Apt 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	7d	1	0.28mi
10644 N 15th Way Apt 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	24d	1	0.28mi
10644 N 15th Way Unit 08 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$925	$1.68	7d	1	0.28mi
9838 N 14th St #3 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$1,150	$2.09	1d	1	0.30mi
9816 N 15th St Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	1d	1	0.32mi
1346 E Mountain View Rd Unit 208 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$999	$1.25	1d	1	0.35mi
1336 E Mountain View Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	885	$1,150	$1.30	1d	2	0.36mi
1336 E Mountain View Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	885	$1,250	$1.41	23d	2	0.36mi
1336 E Mountain View Rd Unit 105 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	885	$1,350	$1.53	17d	1	0.36mi
1247 E Cinnabar Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$999	$1.18	1d	5	0.38mi
1241 E Cinnabar Ave Unit 104A Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	848	$999	$1.18	23d	1	0.38mi
1241 E Cinnabar Ave Unit 102A Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	848	$999	$1.18	1d	1	0.38mi
1168 E Cochise Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1038	$1,795	$1.73	1d	1	0.40mi
1222 E Mountain View Rd #114 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	783	$1,099	$1.40	16d	1	0.46mi
1222 E Mountain View Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	783	$1,024	$1.31	1d	3	0.47mi
1230 E Purdue Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	1d	1	0.49mi
1306 E Purdue Ave Unit 4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	930	$1,545	$1.66	1d	1	0.49mi
10420 N 11th St #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1060	$1,750	$1.65	12d	1	0.50mi
1321 E Carol Ave Apt 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	1d	1	0.57mi
10420 N 10th St #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,625	$1.53	1d	1	0.58mi
10215 N 8th Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	882	$1,349	$1.53	1d	1	0.66mi
9215 N 13th Pl Unit 5 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	670	$1,200	$1.79	1d	1	0.71mi
731 E North Ln #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	1d	1	0.79mi
10001 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	604	$1,229	$2.03	1d	11	0.86mi
1401 E Dunlap Ave Unit 1413-04 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	990	$1,325	$1.34	1d	1	0.88mi
823 E Carol Ave Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	532	$1,200	$2.26	1d	1	0.89mi
1136 E Eva St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	736	$1,600	$2.17	1d	1	0.90mi
9514 N 8th St Unit 202 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	724	$1,050	$1.45	1d	1	0.92mi
9028 N 11th St Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	1d	1	0.95mi
10002 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$1,675	$1.53	1d	23	0.96mi
888 E Clinton St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$1,559	$1.52	1d	30	0.98mi
1027 E Dunlap Ave Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	1d	1	1.02mi
723 E Sunnyslope Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,695	$2.12	2d	1	1.05mi
723 E Sunnyslope Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	794	$1,695	$2.13	1d	1	1.05mi
8916 N 11th St Unit A Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	799	$900	$1.13	2d	1	1.06mi
9603 N 5th St Unit B Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	530	$945	$1.78	10d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $37,500 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $37,500 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $37,500 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $37,500 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $37,500 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $37,500 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $37,500 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $37,500 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $37,500 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $37,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,101
• − Property taxes: −$562
• − Insurance: −$188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,222
• − Management: −$1,222
• − Depreciation: −$1,091
• Taxable income: $8,889
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,133
• After-tax cash flow: $6,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom mobile home in a 55+ community requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Key areas for improvement include painting, updating countertops and fixtures, and landscaping. With these updates, the home can be transformed into a move-in-ready property with increased resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen countertops — Worn appearance suggests need for replacement or resurfacing.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Some may need updating or replacement for a fresh look.
• Minor Bedroom paint — Faded paint in some areas suggests touch-up is needed.
• Minor Exterior paint — Paint appears faded in some areas, suggesting touch-up is needed.
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown areas and lack of curb appeal features suggest landscaping improvements are needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both Replace worn-out countertops and fixtures — New countertops and fixtures can enhance the home's functionality and appeal.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained and landscaped exterior can greatly increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Replace worn-out carpet and tile — Fresh flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and functionality.
• Both Replace worn-out windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's curb appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen countertops · Worn appearance suggests need for replacement or resurfacing.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathroom fixtures · Some may need updating or replacement for a fresh look.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bedroom paint · Faded paint in some areas suggests touch-up is needed.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior paint · Paint appears faded in some areas, suggesting touch-up is needed.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Overgrown areas and lack of curb appeal features suggest landscaping improvements are needed.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$5,000–27,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Replace worn-out countertops and fixtures — New countertops and fixtures can enhance the home's functionality and appeal. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained and landscaped exterior can greatly increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace worn-out carpet and tile — Fresh flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both Replace worn-out windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's curb appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glendale Union High School District (4285)
• NCES district ID: 0403450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $40,846
• Composite: 22.81/100
• National rank: #8020
• State rank: #130 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,916
• Household income: $83,735
• Rent vs Own: 45.4% rent · 54.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2104.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -484.20%
• Current HPI: 305.8855
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.77%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $37,500 ARMLS