19310 S John Wayne Rd · Yucca, AZ 86438

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,340 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 2006 40 ac lot $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Amazing 40 acre off-grid property, 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home. This home has so much to offer, open floor plan, 10 foot ceilings, custom cabinetry in the kitchen, sun tunnels in the ceiling for natural lighting, master bathroom offers marble countertops and a barn door. Walk-in closets in the bedrooms, amazing views from the deck, large covered patio with access from the master bedroom and living area. 40 foot deep attached garage with work bench, bathroom and storage. This home needs some finishing touches. Owner will carry with 30% down payment at 2% interest (your bank can't touch that!)

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Open floor plan
• Marble countertops

Tags

• 40 ACRE OFF-GRID PROPERTY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• SUN TUNNELS
• MARBLE COUNTERTOPS
• BARN DOOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned M-A-R Agricultural Residential
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $145 (about $12.08/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Propane and other utilities available; Holding tank or septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Other roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Level lot; Unimproved road frontage; Has view; Horses allowed

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Has heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Walk-in closets; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-292 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (41.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (41.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.5% in Yucca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#260 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 329 active listings in the ZIP; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (9.9% local appreciation)).
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,840 (41.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.55%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $102,234
• Equity at exit: $200,978

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $314,989
• Equity at exit: $431,600

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86438

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,308 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $474/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,677

Max offer price $173,496

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-164	-5% $-228	+0% $-292	+5% $-355	+10% $-689
Rent	-10% $-395	-5% $-343	+0% $-292	+5% $-240	+10% $-188
Rate	-1.0pp $-178	-0.5pp $-234	base $-292	+0.5pp $-350	+1.0pp $-409

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $225,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-05-04
    status Pending
13. 2026-01-09
    listed $225,000 Active
14. 2025-03-28
    price $240,000
15. 2025-03-28
    price $240,000
16. 2025-02-21
    status Active
17. 2025-02-21
    price $260,000
18. 2025-02-20
    status Active
19. 2025-02-20
    price $260,000
20. 2024-08-19
    listed $299,000 Active
21. 2024-08-19
    listed $299,000 Active
22. 2021-08-03
    listed $295,000 Active
23. 2021-08-03
    listed $295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $474 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,485 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,011/yr (+$84/mo · 213.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$474
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,256
• − Management: −$1,256
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$7,703
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,849
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,650/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Yucca

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #23315

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 692

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Slovak 7% Russian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.90%
• Current HPI: 283.2861
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-23.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — LHAR
• 2026-01-09 Listed $225,000 LHAR
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $240,000 WARDEX
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $240,000 LHAR
• 2025-02-21 Relisted — LHAR
• 2025-02-21 Price Changed $260,000 LHAR
• 2025-02-20 Relisted — WARDEX
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $260,000 WARDEX
• 2024-08-19 Listed $299,000 WARDEX
• 2024-08-19 Listed $299,000 LHAR
• 2021-08-03 Listed $295,000 WARDEX
• 2021-08-03 Listed $295,000 LHAR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $474 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.