411 Nutpine · Wildwood, TX 77612

$179,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 75 Days on market

Good condition 0.54 ac lot $100/sqft · 13% below area Est $206k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offering approximately 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space. This home features an open kitchen and living area perfect for entertaining, highlighted by a cozy wood-burning fireplace that adds warmth and character. The spacious layout also includes a convenient inside utility room and plenty of storage throughout. Outside, you’ll find a two-car carport and a peaceful setting. Located in Wildwood a gated, manned community with access to outstanding amenities including a golf course, private lake, and private airstrip. This property is perfect for those seeking comfort, security, and a relaxing lifestyle.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Two-car carport
• Living area

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• LIVING AREA
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• INSIDE UTILITY ROOM
• TWO-CAR CARPORT
• GATED COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.0% in Wildwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#855 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Warren ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #378 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5 units permitted in Tyler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tyler County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $169,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.16%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,864
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -12.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 Pecan	0.09mi	2/3.0	1,757 (-2%)	2mo	$254,900	$145	86
1116 N Pine St	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,808 (+0%)	3mo	$264,900	$147	69
119 Colorado Spruce Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,844 (+2%)	0mo	$247,000	$134	57
412 Buckeye	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,558 (-13%)	20mo	$55,000	$35	54
804 Camphor Cir	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,952 (+8%)	8mo	$194,000	$99	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-17,991
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,221
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77612

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$225 /mo · $2,698/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,574

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $299	-5% $237	+0% $175	+5% $113	+10% $50
Rent	-10% $33	-5% $104	+0% $175	+5% $246	+10% $317
Rate	-1.0pp $265	-0.5pp $221	base $175	+0.5pp $128	+1.0pp $81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Spruce Ln Wildwood, TX	3.0	2.0	2064	$1,795	$0.87	25d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-08
   price $179,900 681-char remark

   Show marketing remark (681 chars)

   Charming and well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offering approximately 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space. This home features an open kitchen and living area perfect for entertaining, highlighted by a cozy wood-burning fireplace that adds warmth and character. The spacious layout also includes a convenient inside utility room and plenty of storage throughout. Outside, you’ll find a two-car carport and a peaceful setting. Located in Wildwood a gated, manned community with access to outstanding amenities including a golf course, private lake, and private airstrip. This property is perfect for those seeking comfort, security, and a relaxing lifestyle.

2. 2026-05-02
   status Active 675-char remark

   Show marketing remark (675 chars)

   Charming and well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offering approximately 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space. This home features an open kitchen and living area perfect for entertaining, highlighted by a cozy wood-burning fireplace that adds warmth and character. The spacious layout also includes a convenient inside utility room and plenty of storage throughout. Outside, you'll find a two-car carport and a peaceful setting. Located in Wildwood a gated, manned community with access to outstanding amenities including a golf course, private lake, and private airstrip. This property is perfect for those seeking comfort, security, and a relaxing lifestyle.

3. 2026-03-12
   listed $189,900 Active 681-char remark

   Show marketing remark (675 chars)

   Charming and well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offering approximately 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space. This home features an open kitchen and living area perfect for entertaining, highlighted by a cozy wood-burning fireplace that adds warmth and character. The spacious layout also includes a convenient inside utility room and plenty of storage throughout. Outside, you'll find a two-car carport and a peaceful setting. Located in Wildwood a gated, manned community with access to outstanding amenities including a golf course, private lake, and private airstrip. This property is perfect for those seeking comfort, security, and a relaxing lifestyle.

4. 2026-03-12
   listed $189,900 Active 675-char remark

   Show marketing remark (675 chars)

   Charming and well-maintained 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offering approximately 1,800 square feet of comfortable living space. This home features an open kitchen and living area perfect for entertaining, highlighted by a cozy wood-burning fireplace that adds warmth and character. The spacious layout also includes a convenient inside utility room and plenty of storage throughout. Outside, you'll find a two-car carport and a peaceful setting. Located in Wildwood a gated, manned community with access to outstanding amenities including a golf course, private lake, and private airstrip. This property is perfect for those seeking comfort, security, and a relaxing lifestyle.

5. 2025-04-27
   price $195,000
6. 2025-03-18
   price $199,000
7. 2025-03-03
   price $205,000
8. 2025-03-03
   price $210,000
9. 2023-07-20
   soldstatus Closed
10. 2023-06-30
    status Pending
11. 2023-05-10
    price $130,000
12. 2023-04-24
    price $140,000
13. 2023-03-11
    price $148,000
14. 2023-01-16
    listed $155,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,698
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$815
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$196
• After-tax cash flow: $2,293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is in good condition with a good rehab level. It has a good roof, exterior, and interior walls. The kitchen and bathrooms are in good condition. The home is located in a gated community with access to amenities. The home is move-in ready and has good potential for rental or resale.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Replace ceiling fans — Improves air circulation and comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fans — Improves air circulation and comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844580
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,575
• Composite: 34.97/100
• National rank: #5059
• State rank: #378 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wildwood

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #855
• US rank: #15381

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wildwood, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,152

Population outlook (Tyler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,375 people
• By 2030: 20,036 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 19,150 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 18,017 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 15,300 · -24.9%
• By 2100: 11,702 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tyler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.5) · D 13.0% · R 86.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.5pp toward R · 2008: -44.0pp · 2024: -73.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.5 2020: R+70.3 2016: R+67.2 2012: R+55.5 2008: R+44.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.14%
• Current HPI: 168.7562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+16.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $179,900 BBOR
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $189,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $189,900 BBOR
• 2025-04-27 Price Changed $195,000 BBOR
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $199,000 BBOR
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $205,000 BBOR
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $210,000 BBOR
• 2023-07-20 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2023-06-30 Pending — BBOR
• 2023-05-10 Price Changed $130,000 BBOR
• 2023-04-24 Price Changed $140,000 BBOR
• 2023-03-11 Price Changed $148,000 BBOR
• 2023-01-16 Listed $155,000 BBOR