165 Meathouse Rd · Pikeville, KY 41539

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 2 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2009 18 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a large flat yard ? This home offers 3 bed, 2 bath setting on estimated 2 flat acres with a total of 17 acres.

Key facts

• 2 flat acres
• Large flat yard
• 17.74 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE FLAT YARD
• 2 FLAT ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (38.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $93k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.7% in Pikeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#139 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belfry Middle School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 217 statewide, top 44%, 349 students, 75% FRL); East Ridge High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #213 of 254 statewide, top 86%, 410 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 54% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,865 (38.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.64%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $616
• Equity at exit: $69,314

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $27,010
• Equity at exit: $108,332

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41539

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $929 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $-302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $106,158

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-199	-5% $-250	+0% $-302	+5% $-354	+10% $-406
Rent	-10% $-376	-5% $-339	+0% $-302	+5% $-266	+10% $-229
Rate	-1.0pp $-227	-0.5pp $-264	base $-302	+0.5pp $-341	+1.0pp $-381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-11-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-24
   listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$892
• − Management: −$892
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$6,395
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,535
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Pikeville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #139
• US rank: #6715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,486

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.23%
• Current HPI: 135.053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-27 Pending — EKAR
• 2025-11-24 Listed $149,900 EKAR

Property tax history

+25.4%/yr

Latest (2015): $152 · +210.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.