18218 Paradise Mountain Rd · Valley Center, CA 92082

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Land · 13 Days on market

Built 1976 $83/sqft · 32% below area Est $250k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NICELY MAINTAINED 2XWIDE ON LARGEST AND ALL USABLE LOT. GARDENING AND FAMILY FRUIT GALORE! LARGE VIEW DECK AND ENCLOSED PATIO W/ TONS OF STORAGE. ENJOY ACTIVE LIVING IN 55+ PARK W/ UNLIMITED FREE GOLF ON SCGA-RATED EXECUTIVE COURSE. TUNE IN CH 2 FOR ACTIVITIES. CLUBHOUSE, POOLS, BBQS, & MORE!

Key facts

• New lighting
• Newer dishwasher
• Newer microwave

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• HOME OFFICE
• NEWER REFRIGERATOR
• NEWER DISHWASHER
• NEWER MICROWAVE
• NEW LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
• Cap rate 21.1% vs local median 2.6% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 50 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask is 108% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $135k implies a 514% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.81%
• DSCR: 3.35
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,900
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -33.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $84,115
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $209,863
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,286 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$690
• Net cashflow: $1,663

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,757	-5% $1,710	+0% $1,663	+5% $1,617	+10% $1,570
Rent	-10% $1,404	-5% $1,534	+0% $1,663	+5% $1,793	+10% $1,923
Rate	-1.0pp $1,731	-0.5pp $1,698	base $1,663	+0.5pp $1,628	+1.0pp $1,593

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on marketlisting id $135,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $130,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 1999-04-01
    historical
16. 1999-04-01
    historical
17. 1999-02-24
    soldstatus $22,000 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    NICELY MAINTAINED 2XWIDE ON LARGEST AND ALL USABLE LOT. GARDENING AND FAMILY FRUIT GALORE! LARGE VIEW DECK AND ENCLOSED PATIO W/ TONS OF STORAGE. ENJOY ACTIVE LIVING IN 55+ PARK W/ UNLIMITED FREE GOLF ON SCGA-RATED EXECUTIVE COURSE. TUNE IN CH 2 FOR ACTIVITIES. CLUBHOUSE, POOLS, BBQS, & MORE!

18. 1999-01-30
    historical
19. 1999-01-30
    historical
20. 1998-12-31
    historical
21. 1998-12-31
    historical
22. 1998-12-24
    soldstatus $29,500
23. 1998-12-24
    soldstatus $70,000
24. 1998-12-23
    soldstatus $27,400
25. 1998-12-08
    historical
26. 1998-12-06
    historical
27. 1998-12-06
    historical
28. 1998-10-30
    listed $64,900
29. 1998-10-27
    soldstatus $42,540
30. 1998-10-27
    historical
31. 1998-10-27
    historical
32. 1998-10-23
    soldstatus $28,000
33. 1998-10-21
    listed $74,900
34. 1998-10-20
    listed $89,000
35. 1998-10-20
    listed $47,900
36. 1998-10-20
    listed $47,900
37. 1998-10-20
    listed $89,000
38. 1998-10-09
    soldstatus $45,000
39. 1998-10-08
    historical
40. 1998-10-08
    historical
41. 1998-10-06
    soldstatus $18,000
42. 1998-09-16
    historical
43. 1998-09-16
    historical
44. 1998-09-01
    soldstatus $51,000
45. 1998-08-31
    listed $38,500 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    NICELY MAINTAINED 2XWIDE ON LARGEST AND ALL USABLE LOT. GARDENING AND FAMILY FRUIT GALORE! LARGE VIEW DECK AND ENCLOSED PATIO W/ TONS OF STORAGE. ENJOY ACTIVE LIVING IN 55+ PARK W/ UNLIMITED FREE GOLF ON SCGA-RATED EXECUTIVE COURSE. TUNE IN CH 2 FOR ACTIVITIES. CLUBHOUSE, POOLS, BBQS, & MORE!

46. 1998-08-27
    soldstatus $103,000
47. 1998-08-20
    soldstatus $40,000
48. 1998-08-15
    listed $30,000
49. 1998-08-12
    listed $31,000
50. 1998-08-03
    soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,155
• − Management: −$3,155
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $18,938
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,545
• After-tax cash flow: $15,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-71.6% since first listed

100 events — show timeline

• 1999-04-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1999-04-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 1999-02-24 Sold (MLS) $22,000 CRMLS
• 1999-01-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1999-01-30 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 1998-12-31 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 1998-12-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1998-12-24 Sold (MLS) $70,000 CRMLS
• 1998-12-24 Sold (MLS) $29,500 CRMLS
• 1998-12-23 Sold (MLS) $27,400 CRMLS
• 1998-12-08 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 1998-12-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1998-12-06 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 1998-10-30 Listed $64,900 SDMLS
• 1998-10-27 Sold (MLS) $42,540 CRMLS
• 1998-10-27 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 1998-10-27 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1998-10-23 Sold (MLS) $28,000 CRMLS
• 1998-10-21 Listed $74,900 CRMLS
• 1998-10-20 Listed $89,000 CRMLS
• 1998-10-20 Listed $89,000 SDMLS
• 1998-10-20 Listed $47,900 CRMLS
• 1998-10-20 Listed $47,900 SDMLS
• 1998-10-09 Sold (MLS) $45,000 CRMLS
• 1998-10-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1998-10-08 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 1998-10-06 Sold (MLS) $18,000 CRMLS
• 1998-09-16 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1998-09-16 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 1998-09-01 Sold (MLS) $51,000 CRMLS
• 1998-08-31 Listed $38,500 CRMLS
• 1998-08-27 Sold (MLS) $103,000 CRMLS
• 1998-08-20 Sold (MLS) $40,000 CRMLS
• 1998-08-15 Listed $30,000 CRMLS
• 1998-08-12 Listed $31,000 CRMLS
• 1998-08-03 Sold (MLS) $47,000 CRMLS
• 1998-07-31 Listed $49,900 CRMLS
• 1998-07-27 Listed $64,900 SDMLS
• 1998-07-27 Listed $64,900 CRMLS
• 1998-07-27 Listed $49,500 CRMLS
• 1998-07-27 Listed $49,500 SDMLS
• 1998-07-15 Sold (MLS) $25,000 CRMLS
• 1998-07-08 Listed $48,500 CRMLS
• 1998-07-08 Listed $48,500 SDMLS
• 1998-07-06 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 1998-07-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1998-07-02 Listed $59,000 CRMLS
• 1998-07-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 1998-07-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1998-07-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1998-07-01 Listed $24,900 CRMLS
• 1998-07-01 Sold (MLS) $39,000 CRMLS
• 1998-06-30 Listed $53,900 CRMLS
• 1998-06-24 Listed $49,900 SDMLS
• 1998-06-24 Listed $49,900 CRMLS
• 1998-06-11 Sold (MLS) $45,500 CRMLS
• 1998-06-05 Listed $105,000 CRMLS
• 1998-06-03 Listed $39,000 CRMLS
• 1998-05-29 Sold (MLS) $25,000 CRMLS
• 1998-05-27 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1998-05-27 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 1998-05-22 Sold (MLS) $72,000 CRMLS
• 1998-05-15 Sold (MLS) $28,000 CRMLS
• 1998-05-11 Listed $26,000 CRMLS
• 1998-05-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1998-05-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 1998-04-30 Sold (MLS) $29,000 CRMLS
• 1998-04-15 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 1998-04-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1998-04-15 Listed $35,000 CRMLS
• 1998-04-13 Listed $49,900 CRMLS
• 1998-03-16 Listed $89,000 CRMLS
• 1998-03-16 Listed $89,000 SDMLS
• 1998-03-16 Sold (MLS) $55,000 CRMLS
• 1998-02-06 Listed $32,500 CRMLS
• 1998-02-03 Listed $35,000 CRMLS
• 1998-01-31 Listed $43,500 SDMLS
• 1998-01-31 Listed $43,500 CRMLS
• 1998-01-29 Listed $55,000 CRMLS
• 1998-01-29 Listed $59,000 CRMLS
• 1998-01-10 Listed $49,500 CRMLS
• 1998-01-06 Listed $48,500 SDMLS
• 1998-01-06 Listed $48,500 CRMLS
• 1998-01-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 1998-01-01 Listed $43,000 CRMLS
• 1997-12-22 Listed $45,500 CRMLS
• 1997-12-22 Listed $45,500 SDMLS
• 1997-10-30 Listed $38,500 CRMLS
• 1997-10-30 Listed $38,500 SDMLS
• 1997-10-23 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 1997-10-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1997-10-15 Listed $35,000 SDMLS
• 1997-10-15 Listed $35,000 CRMLS
• 1997-10-03 Listed $32,500 CRMLS
• 1997-10-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 1997-07-01 Listed $42,500 CRMLS
• 1997-07-01 Listed $89,000 CRMLS
• 1997-04-08 Listed $47,000 SDMLS
• 1997-04-08 Listed $47,000 CRMLS
• 1996-01-01 Listed $77,500 SDMLS

Property tax history

+35.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $64,340 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.