652 Bailey Dr · Chase City, VA 23924

$82,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,558 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1956 Fair condition 2.05 ac lot $53/sqft · 44% below area Est $147k · 44% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity with tons of potential! Bring your vision and finishing touches to this charming 2 bedrooms 1 bath home situated on 2.05 acres just outside of Chase City. In addition to the two bedrooms, the home offers a flex room that could serve as a home office, third bedroom, hobby room, playroom, or whatever best fits your needs. The current owner has already begun renovations giving the next owner a great head start. While the home needs some TLC and finishing touches, it is move-in ready, offering the opportunity to live in the home while completing improvements at your own pace.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• 2.05 acres
• Flex room

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• 2.05 ACRES
• MOVE-IN READY
• RENOVATIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 6.2% in Chase City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#238 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chase City Elementary (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #696 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 387 students, 89% FRL); Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 54% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mecklenburg County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($570 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,262 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.42%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,493
• List price: $82,500
• Delta: -44.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Pine Tree Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+7%)	2mo	$220,000	$132	62
511 W Sycamore St	0.61mi	3/3.0	1,600 (+3%)	3mo	$245,000	$153	56
455 W Fifth St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,302 (-16%)	13mo	$63,000	$48	45
416 Huston St	1.02mi	3/2.0	1,425 (-8%)	3mo	$160,000	$112	44
821 W Sycamore St	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,336 (-14%)	7mo	$144,000	$108	34
225 Boswell Ave	0.95mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (-4%)	21mo	$173,000	$115	33
303 West B St	0.79mi	3/1.0	1,266 (-19%)	16mo	$105,000	$83	27
516 Berry St	1.12mi	3/2.0	1,333 (-14%)	13mo	$199,900	$150	26
230 High St	0.70mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,756 (+13%)	20mo	$40,000	$23	24
953 N Main St	0.98mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,854 (+19%)	13mo	$225,000	$121	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $19,840
• Equity at exit: $32,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $56,367
• Equity at exit: $47,249

Cash invested: $23,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.0 mo (33%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $199,900 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 276 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -41.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 23924

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$433
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$103 /mo · $1,238/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $722

Max offer price $82,500

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $277	-5% $248	+0% $220	+5% $191	+10% $163
Rent	-10% $141	-5% $180	+0% $220	+5% $259	+10% $299
Rate	-1.0pp $261	-0.5pp $241	base $220	+0.5pp $198	+1.0pp $177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,625
• Closing costs: $2,475
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4791 Highway Forty Seven Chase City, VA	3.0	1.0	1600	$1,000	$0.62	0d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 2.05-acre lot (zoned AG)Property has a viewDirections: From Hardees in Chase City - right on E Second Street 1.2 miles, right on Huss Rd 600 ft, right on Bailey Drive 0.2 mi to 652 on right

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking on gravel (no garage)
• Utilities: Private well waterSeptic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne and one-half stories
• Construction: Metal roofAsbestos and other construction materialsCrawl space foundationBuilt area above grade: 1,558 square feet
• Exterior features: GardenDeck

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric rangeRefrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heatingWindow air conditioning units
• Interior features: Electric water heaterNo fireplaceGarden view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with electric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $82,500 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $82,500 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $82,500 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $82,500 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $82,500 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $82,500 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $82,500 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $82,500 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   pricedays on market $82,500 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $85,500 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $85,500 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $85,500 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $85,500 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $85,500 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-09-03
    days on marketlisting id $85,500 Active 1 DOM
17. 2026-08-18
    days on market $85,500 Active 70 DOM
18. 2026-08-17
    days on market $85,500 Active 69 DOM
19. 2026-08-16
    days on market $85,500 Active 68 DOM
20. 2026-08-15
    days on market $85,500 Active 67 DOM
21. 2026-08-15
    status $85,500 Active 66 DOM
22. 2026-08-14
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 66 DOM
23. 2026-08-13
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 65 DOM
24. 2026-08-12
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 64 DOM
25. 2026-08-11
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 63 DOM
26. 2026-08-10
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 62 DOM
27. 2026-08-09
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 61 DOM
28. 2026-08-08
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 60 DOM
29. 2026-08-07
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 59 DOM
30. 2026-08-06
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 58 DOM
31. 2026-08-05
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 57 DOM
32. 2026-08-04
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 56 DOM
33. 2026-08-03
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 55 DOM
34. 2026-07-31
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
35. 2026-07-30
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 51 DOM
36. 2026-07-29
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 50 DOM
37. 2026-07-27
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 48 DOM
38. 2026-07-25
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 46 DOM
39. 2026-07-24
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 45 DOM
40. 2026-07-23
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 44 DOM
41. 2026-07-22
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 43 DOM
42. 2026-07-21
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 42 DOM
43. 2026-07-18
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 39 DOM
44. 2026-07-16
    days on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 37 DOM
45. 2026-07-16
    statusdays on market $85,500 Active Under Contract 36 DOM
46. 2026-07-14
    days on market $85,500 Active 35 DOM
47. 2026-07-14
    days on market $85,500 Active 34 DOM
48. 2026-07-12
    days on market $85,500 Active 33 DOM
49. 2026-07-11
    days on market $85,500 Active 32 DOM
50. 2026-07-10
    days on market $85,500 Active 31 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,621
• − Property taxes: −$1,238
• − Insurance: −$412
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$2,400
• Taxable income: $1,409
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$338
• After-tax cash flow: $2,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $38,950–$70,110 screening

This property requires significant repairs and updates to its roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls, and HVAC system. While it has some updates, it is in fair condition and presents an opportunity for substantial value increase through targeted renovations.

Components & finishes AI

Roof metal · good Flooring osb

Deferred maintenance Est. $50,500–$152,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Major Windows (windows) — Windows appear old and may need replacement
• Major Electrical (electrical) — Electrical panel appears old and may need upgrade
• Major Plumbing (plumbing) — No visible signs of damage but may need inspection
• Major Exterior (exterior) — Exterior walls appear old and may need repair
• Major Other — No visible signs of damage but may need inspection

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof is visibly in poor condition and requires replacement.
• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding is peeling and in need of repainting or replacement.
• Major fencing — The fencing is in poor condition and requires repair or replacement.
• Major flooring — The flooring in the interior appears to be subpar and may need replacement or repair.
• Major interior walls — The interior walls show signs of wear and tear, with some areas appearing to be in need of repainting or repair.
• Major HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be old and may need replacement or repair.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the home's curb appeal and overall condition, making it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale exterior siding and fencing repair/replacement — A fresh coat of paint and repair/replacement of the siding and fencing will enhance the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, making it more attractive to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale flooring replacement — Replacing the subpar flooring will improve the home's overall condition and make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale interior wall repair and repainting — Repairing and repainting the interior walls will improve the home's condition and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 52/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chase City Elementary C- VA #696/1,108 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Mecklenburg County Middle High Mecklenburg County High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Chase City

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #238
• US rank: #8038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mecklenburg · 28,332 people
• Population (ZIP): 5,709
• Household income: $43,614
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own

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Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 36% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Current HPI: 155.5959
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 2.05-acre lot (zoned AG)Property has a viewDirections: From Hardees in Chase City - right on E Second Street 1.2 miles, right on Huss Rd 600 ft, right on Bailey Drive 0.2 mi to 652 on right

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking on gravel (no garage)
• Utilities: Private well waterSeptic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne and one-half stories
• Construction: Metal roofAsbestos and other construction materialsCrawl space foundationBuilt area above grade: 1,558 square feet
• Exterior features: GardenDeck

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric rangeRefrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heatingWindow air conditioning units
• Interior features: Electric water heaterNo fireplaceGarden view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with electric dryer hookup

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-07 Price Changed $85,500 SPLLAR
• 2026-06-09 Listed $89,500 SPLLAR

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $148 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.