652 Bailey Dr · Chase City, VA 23924

$89,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,558 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1956 2.05 ac lot Est $168k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH. .. House on 2 Acres with circular drive. (2 lots) zoned AG. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath. Some updates have been done. Ready for finishing touches. Close to Chase City for Restaurants, Medical, minutes to Kerr Lake, Microsoft.

Key facts

• Zoned ag
• Circular drive
• 2 acres

Tags

• CIRCULAR DRIVE
• ZONED AG
• 2 ACRES
• CLOSE TO CHASE CITY
• MINUTES TO KERR LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 2.05-acre lot (zoned AG); Property has a view; Directions: From Hardees in Chase City - right on E Second Street 1.2 miles, right on Huss Rd 600 ft, right on Bailey Drive 0.2 mi to 652 on right

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking on gravel (no garage)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories
• Construction: Metal roof; Asbestos and other construction materials; Crawl space foundation; Built area above grade: 1,558 square feet
• Exterior features: Garden; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Electric water heater; No fireplace; Garden view
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $814 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 7.3% in Chase City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#238 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chase City Elementary (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #696 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 387 students, 89% FRL); Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 54% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mecklenburg County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($619 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.99%
• DSCR: 2.73
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,264
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
821 W Sycamore St	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,336 (-14%)	4mo	$144,000	$108	36
230 High St	0.70mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,756 (+13%)	17mo	$40,000	$23	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $58,204
• Equity at exit: $35,493

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $140,352
• Equity at exit: $51,258

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23924

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,814 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,342/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $814

Break-even live

Break-even rent $783

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $876	-5% $845	+0% $814	+5% $783	+10% $752
Rent	-10% $671	-5% $743	+0% $814	+5% $886	+10% $958
Rate	-1.0pp $859	-0.5pp $837	base $814	+0.5pp $791	+1.0pp $767

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,500 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,500 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 240-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $89,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$1,342
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,741
• − Management: −$1,741
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $8,874
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,130
• After-tax cash flow: $7,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chase City

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #238
• US rank: #8038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,709

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 36% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Current HPI: 155.5959
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $89,500 SPLLAR

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $148 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.