56 Barlow Ave · Lackawanna, NY 14218

$284,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,994 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1964 5,673 sqft lot Est $295k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spectacular home is Back on the Market, and it won’t last long!! This LARGE & Beautiful brick/vinyl home, is situated on corner lot in an awesome neighborhood; it offers curb appeal, impeccable maintenance and features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. Currently not furnished, use ZILLOW to virtually stage in our SHOWCASE listing. Rooms come alive with potential! Inside, the main level boasts a spacious family room with a fireplace and full bath (with possibility to convert to a first floor primary suite), an updated kitchen equipped with Corian counters, a breakfast bar, and tile backsplash, along with a dedicated dining area and a bright living room. Throughout the home, ori

Key facts

• 5,673 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1964

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.4% in Lackawanna — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#254 in NY, #4,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lackawanna City School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #588 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Martin Road Elementary School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,944 of 2,108 statewide, top 92%, 560 students, 86% FRL); Lackawanna Middle School (math 5% / reading 27%, grade F, #702 of 729 statewide, top 96%, 407 students, 80% FRL); Lackawanna High School (math 72%, 560 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $250,000 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.76%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,112
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1517 Abbott Rd	0.49mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,016 (+1%)	19mo	$235,000	$117	55
201 Bernadette	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,822 (-9%)	10mo	$270,000	$148	54
56 Weber Rd	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,756 (-12%)	11mo	$292,000	$166	49
100 Palm St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,890 (-5%)	4mo	$250,000	$132	47
392 S Shore Blvd	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,746 (-12%)	7mo	$220,000	$126	44
74 Fieldcrest Ct	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,738 (-13%)	11mo	$330,000	$190	39
52 Kennedy Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,715 (-14%)	8mo	$285,000	$166	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-38,758
• Equity at exit: $42,480

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-24,294
• Equity at exit: $24,633

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14218

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,945/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,352

Max offer price $284,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $278	-5% $197	+0% $117	+5% $36	+10% $-44
Rent	-10% $-81	-5% $18	+0% $117	+5% $216	+10% $314
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $189	base $117	+0.5pp $43	+1.0pp $-32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
158 South Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.5	1380	$2,500	$1.81	3d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $284,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,900 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,900 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 689-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $284,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $284,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $284,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $284,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $284,900 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-03-17
    status Pending
18. 2026-03-08
    listed $285,000 Active
19. 2025-11-23
    status Pending
20. 2025-11-13
    status Active
21. 2025-09-20
    listed $285,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,945 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,880 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: +$935/yr (+$78/mo · 31.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$2,945
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$3,417
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$820
• After-tax cash flow: $2,222/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lackawanna City School District
• NCES district ID: 3616440
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,041
• Composite: 19.76/100
• National rank: #8708
• State rank: #588 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lackawanna

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #4026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lackawanna, NY
• City population: 20,661
• Population (ZIP): 20,661

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Arabic 11% Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.44%
• Current HPI: 389.0188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-08 Listed $285,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-13 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-20 Listed $285,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,945 · +116.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.