2305 Varnell Rd SW · South Cleveland, TN 37311

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,839 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1910 0.68 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity is knocking with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer-upper! This home needs significant repairs and updates, but for the right buyer, the upside is real. Whether you're a seasoned investor, house flipper, or someone looking to build sweat equity, this is your chance to transform a property and create serious value. Buyer to verify all information and property facts.

Key facts

• 0.68 acre lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 16 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.6% in South Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#201 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, crime F.
• Bradley County (other): math 35% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #33 of 139 in TN (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Black Fox Elementary School (math 45% / reading 38%, grade F, #212 of 952 statewide, top 22%, 510 students, 0% FRL); Lake Forest Middle School (math 32% / reading 26%, grade F, #110 of 333 statewide, top 34%, 1,127 students, 0% FRL); Bradley Central High School (math 13% / reading 31%, grade F, #163 of 332 statewide, top 51%, 1,677 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 768 units permitted in Bradley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bradley County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,765 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.90%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $343,893
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2305 Varnell Rd SW	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,839 (0%)	0mo	$125,000	$68	100
188 Winesap Way SW	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,801 (-2%)	3mo	$337,500	$187	66
2710 J Mack Cir SW	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,872 (+2%)	3mo	$168,000	$90	58
191 Winesap Way SW	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,759 (-4%)	11mo	$329,900	$188	56
197 Winesap Way SW	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,759 (-4%)	12mo	$335,000	$190	55
275 Courtland Crest Dr SW	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,693 (-8%)	12mo	$322,000	$190	53
115 Winesap Way SW	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,707 (-7%)	8mo	$315,000	$185	52
264 Courtland Crest Dr SW	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,990 (+8%)	3mo	$364,900	$183	51
229 Courtland Crest Dr SW	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,920 (+4%)	11mo	$344,000	$179	50
131 Winesap Way SW	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,596 (-13%)	10mo	$339,900	$213	39
131 Winesap Way SW	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,596 (-13%)	10mo	$339,900	$213	39
122 Winesap Way SW	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,057 (+12%)	9mo	$345,000	$168	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,288
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $25,978
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37311

• Home prices YoY: -25.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,739 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $447	-5% $396	+0% $344	+5% $293	+10% $241
Rent	-10% $207	-5% $275	+0% $344	+5% $413	+10% $482
Rate	-1.0pp $419	-0.5pp $382	base $344	+0.5pp $306	+1.0pp $266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
285 Courtland Crest Dr SW Cleveland, TN	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,899	$1.20	45d	1	0.53mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   status Pending 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Opportunity is knocking with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer-upper! This home needs significant repairs and updates, but for the right buyer, the upside is real. Whether you're a seasoned investor, house flipper, or someone looking to build sweat equity, this is your chance to transform a property and create serious value. Buyer to verify all information and property facts.

3. 2026-03-01
   status Active
4. 2026-02-27
   status Active 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Opportunity is knocking with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer-upper! This home needs significant repairs and updates, but for the right buyer, the upside is real. Whether you're a seasoned investor, house flipper, or someone looking to build sweat equity, this is your chance to transform a property and create serious value. Buyer to verify all information and property facts.

5. 2026-02-13
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Opportunity is knocking with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer-upper! This home needs significant repairs and updates, but for the right buyer, the upside is real. Whether you're a seasoned investor, house flipper, or someone looking to build sweat equity, this is your chance to transform a property and create serious value. Buyer to verify all information and property facts.

6. 2026-02-13
   status Pending 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Opportunity is knocking with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer-upper! This home needs significant repairs and updates, but for the right buyer, the upside is real. Whether you're a seasoned investor, house flipper, or someone looking to build sweat equity, this is your chance to transform a property and create serious value. Buyer to verify all information and property facts.

7. 2026-02-12
   listed $149,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Opportunity is knocking with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer-upper! This home needs significant repairs and updates, but for the right buyer, the upside is real. Whether you're a seasoned investor, house flipper, or someone looking to build sweat equity, this is your chance to transform a property and create serious value. Buyer to verify all information and property facts.

8. 2026-02-12
   listed $149,000 Active 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   Opportunity is knocking with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom fixer-upper! This home needs significant repairs and updates, but for the right buyer, the upside is real. Whether you're a seasoned investor, house flipper, or someone looking to build sweat equity, this is your chance to transform a property and create serious value. Buyer to verify all information and property facts.

9. 2025-06-23
   soldstatus $649,000 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   Charming Farmhouse on 23.6 Acres! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers peaceful country living with a covered carport, two barns, five stables, and ample hay storage—perfect for horse lovers or a small farm operation. Enjoy the open pastures and scenic views, all while being just minutes from town. (Small white shed does not convey). Don't miss this rare opportunity to own your slice of countryside paradise! Schedule your showing today!

10. 2025-06-23
    soldstatus $649,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Charming Farmhouse on 23.6 Acres! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers peaceful country living with a covered carport, two barns, five stables, and ample hay storage—perfect for horse lovers or a small farm operation. Enjoy the open pastures and scenic views, all while being just minutes from town. (Small white shed does not convey). Don't miss this rare opportunity to own your slice of countryside paradise! Schedule your showing today!

11. 2025-02-28
    status Pending
12. 2025-02-21
    listed $649,000 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Charming Farmhouse on 23.6 Acres! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers peaceful country living with a covered carport, two barns, five stables, and ample hay storage—perfect for horse lovers or a small farm operation. Enjoy the open pastures and scenic views, all while being just minutes from town. (Small white shed does not convey). Don't miss this rare opportunity to own your slice of countryside paradise! Schedule your showing today!

13. 2025-02-20
    listed $649,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,669
• − Management: −$1,669
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $1,869
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$448
• After-tax cash flow: $3,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bradley County
• NCES district ID: 4700330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,807
• Composite: 29.54/100
• National rank: #6494
• State rank: #33 of 139 in TN

Livability — South Cleveland

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #201
• US rank: #15753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Cleveland, TN
• County: Bradley County · 99,337 people
• City population: 31,043
• Metro: Cleveland, TN
• Population (ZIP): 30,720
• Household income: $47,153
• Rent vs Own: 53.4% rent · 46.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1184.0

Population outlook (Bradley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,901 people
• By 2030: 120,137 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 130,125 · +13.2%
• By 2050: 139,257 · +21.2%
• By 2075: 161,664 · +40.7%
• By 2100: 179,767 · +56.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bradley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.0% · R 78.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -49.7pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+55.3 2016: R+59.1 2012: R+53.9 2008: R+49.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.10%
• Current HPI: 285.0723
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Cleveland, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-77.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — GCAR
• 2026-03-12 Pending — RCAOR
• 2026-03-01 Relisted — GCAR
• 2026-02-27 Relisted — RCAOR
• 2026-02-13 Pending — GCAR
• 2026-02-13 Pending — RCAOR
• 2026-02-12 Listed $149,000 RCAOR
• 2026-02-12 Listed $149,000 GCAR
• 2025-06-23 Sold (MLS) $649,000 RCAOR
• 2025-06-23 Sold (MLS) $649,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-28 Pending — RCAOR
• 2025-02-21 Listed $649,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-20 Listed $649,000 RCAOR