19853 Cottonwood Dr · Santa Clarita, CA 91351

$240,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · Manufactured public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1999 3,698 sqft lot Est $162k · 49% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in Canyon View Estates offers 1,036 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space—perfect for a family just starting out or those looking to simplify without sacrificing comfort. Recently refreshed with new interior and exterior paint, this home feels clean, bright, and move-in ready. Inside, you’ll find new flooring throughout, including durable luxury vinyl plank in the main living areas and new carpet in the bedrooms, creating a warm and comfortable feel. The kitchen features refinished cabinets that offer a fresh, updated look while maintaining functionality for everyday living. Ceiling fans throughout the home provide year-round comf

Key facts

• New carpet
• New exterior paint
• Luxury vinyl plank

Tags

• NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK
• NEW CARPET
• REFINISHED CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease: $1,559.04 per month; Community features include mountainous terrain and community spa/pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway with direct garage access; Total of 2 parking spaces
• Security: Gated community with guard
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Natural gas available; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: House (single-family); One story; Front entry; Entry at level 1; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: No common walls (detached); Certified 433a foundation
• Exterior features: Community pool; Front yard; Back yard; Block wall and wrought iron fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet and primary bathroom
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower and shower-in-tub features
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Open floor plan; Cathedral/vaulted ceilings; Open kitchen to family room; Gated community with guard; Community spa; Fireplace in family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside the home; Gas dryer hookup; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $226k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.8% in Santa Clarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#229 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.63%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,616
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #511	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (+1%)	4mo	$229,000	$218	61
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #114	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+14%)	4mo	$184,000	$156	42
20401 Soledad Canyon Rd #451	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+14%)	7mo	$157,000	$134	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-17,453
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,735
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91351

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,925 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,596/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,428

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $529	-5% $461	+0% $393	+5% $325	+10% $257
Rent	-10% $162	-5% $277	+0% $393	+5% $508	+10% $624
Rate	-1.0pp $514	-0.5pp $454	base $393	+0.5pp $330	+1.0pp $267

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26956 Flo Ln #338 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	1064	$2,875	$2.70	2d	1	0.49mi
26921 Flo Ln Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1107	$2,950	$2.66	2d	1	0.60mi
26955 Rainbow Glen Dr Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.0	1007	$2,850	$2.83	2d	1	0.61mi
26941 Rainbow Glen Dr #751 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	907	$2,900	$3.20	2d	1	0.62mi
26901 Rainbow Glen Dr Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	2.0	1001	$2,950	$2.95	2d	1	0.63mi
20345 Rue Crevier Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	907	$2,700	$2.98	2d	1	0.69mi
28085 Whites Canyon Rd Canyon Country, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	714	$2,100	$2.94	2d	7	0.71mi
26842 Claudette St #204 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	964	$2,650	$2.75	2d	1	0.71mi
27301 Whites Canyon Rd Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,995	$2.22	18d	2	0.76mi
19028 Drycliff St Unit C Canyon Country, CA	3.0	1.5	982	$3,600	$3.67	3d	1	0.84mi
26741 Isabella Pkwy Canyon Country, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,989	$3.52	2d	3	0.84mi
27077 Hidaway Ave Canyon Country, CA	2.0	1.0	960	$2,400	$2.50	2d	1	1.11mi
28136 Bakerton Ave Canyon Country, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,800	$2.71	8d	1	1.13mi
27070 Hidaway Ave #4 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	1.5	1078	$3,200	$2.97	3d	1	1.21mi
19300 Maybrook LN Santa Clarita, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$3,222	$3.17	2d	61	1.30mi
19335 Laroda Ln Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	8d	1	1.30mi
28427 Santa Rosa Ln Santa Clarita, CA	2.0	2.0	1121	$3,000	$2.68	2d	1	1.33mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	3.0	3.0	1370	$3,700	$2.70	2d	1	1.37mi
20000 Plum Canyon Rd Santa Clarita, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1051	$2,925	$2.78	25d	2	1.38mi
18804 Mandan St #807 Canyon Country, CA	2.0	2.0	860	$2,600	$3.02	2d	1	1.40mi
26752 Winsome Cir Newhall, CA	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,950	$2.63	2d	1	1.46mi
26379 Rainbow Glen Dr Newhall, CA	3.0	2.0	1427	$3,600	$2.52	2d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $240,000
16. 2026-04-13
    listed $255,000 Active
17. 2026-03-31
    historical
18. 2025-12-20
    listed $255,000 Active
19. 2007-06-06
    historical
20. 2007-04-21
    listed $168,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,596 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,824 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$228/yr (+$19/mo · 14.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,596
• − Insurance: −$6,319
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,808
• − Management: −$2,808
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable income: $1,145
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$275
• After-tax cash flow: $4,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William S. Hart Union High
• NCES district ID: 0642510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $95,844
• Composite: 58.6/100
• National rank: #2030
• State rank: #155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Clarita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Clarita, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 219,066
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,155
• Household income: $115,364
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 34% Two or more races 21% Asian 6% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -703.16%
• Current HPI: 360.9901
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $240,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $255,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-12-20 Listed $255,000 CRMLS
• 2007-06-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-04-21 Listed $168,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,596 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.