2203 25th St Unit AT CORNER OF STAG · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

Built 2016 Good condition 4,050 sqft lot $125/sqft · 14% above area Est $184k · 14% over ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0

Listing remarks

Charming Super Clean 3 Bed/2 Bath Ready For Move-In ! FHA/VA Approved Retrofit For Easy Financing Options. Recent Paint And Beautiful Floors In A Remodel Not Long Ago. Huge Living Room & Dining Area With Huge A Center Island That Makes Entertaining Easy. Large Master Bedroom Suite & Walk In Closet With Spacious Master Bath. A Split Floor Plan. Huge Amounts Kitchen Cabinet Storage Space And Includes Recently Replaced Stove/Oven, Late Model Refrig/Freezer, Washer/Dryer Hook-Ups. Located In Marble Falls ISD And Is Perfect For Peaceful Hill Country Living. Lake LBJ Access Through A Public Boat Launch, Marina With Boat Rentals And Beach Park As Well. Other Boat Ramps In Area. A Hidde

Key facts

• Recent paint
• Huge living room
• Walk in closet

Tags

• FHA VA APPROVED
• RECENT PAINT
• HUGE LIVING ROOM
• CENTER ISLAND
• LARGE MASTER BEDROOM SUITE
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Green energy-efficient windows
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Horseshoe Bay S

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not specified
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electric service
• Home design: Manufactured home on land; Single-story
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding with stone accents; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Wooded and landscaped lot; No fencing; Satellite dish

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High ceilings; Vaulted ceiling; Recessed lighting; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1223 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.72%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,785
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: 14.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1605 Colonneh St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	4mo	$164,000	$113	65
1808 Cripple Creek St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	23mo	$239,900	$165	46
6001 Pronghorn	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (-11%)	23mo	$199,800	$134	45
208 33rd St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-10%)	20mo	$210,000	$139	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $15,012
• Equity at exit: $71,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $66,884
• Equity at exit: $93,973

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1223
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,067 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,148/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,836

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2203 25th St Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,525	$0.91	24d	1	0.01mi
201 36th St Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,300	$1.39	20d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $209,900 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $219,000 Active 706-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$3,148
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,984
• − Management: −$1,984
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$1,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$294
• After-tax cash flow: $2,483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming, recently remodeled home is move-in ready with good condition and recent updates. It offers a peaceful Hill Country living experience with easy financing options.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add a small patio or deck — Improves outdoor living space and adds value
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add a small patio or deck — Improves outdoor living space and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $209,900 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-13 Listed $219,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID