3118 Shady Creek Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1993 4,080 sqft lot Est $165k · at est. $217/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Step into comfort and easy Florida living with this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath split-plan home located in a desirable gated community with NO lot rent. Pride of ownership shines throughout this bright and cheerful residence featuring both a living room and a separate family room for relaxing or entertaining. The updated kitchen offers stainless steel appliances, a convenient snack bar, and flows seamlessly with laminate flooring throughout for a modern, low-maintenance feel, while the spacious primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a garden-style bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Enjoy outdoor living on the raised, side scr

Key facts

• Gated community
• Snack bar
• Carport

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SNACK BAR
• RAISED SIDE SCREENED LANAI
• CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre (approx. 0.09 acres, 51x80 lot)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by RealManage; Monthly HOA fee $217 (includes pool, maintenance of grounds, management, recreational facilities, trash, water); Association amenities: clubhouse, gated community, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court; Buyer/association approval required; Pets allowed; Full-time management

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Private water source; Private sewer; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces west
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Outdoor storage; Paved, private lot in county

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Crawlspace foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split-bedroom floor plan; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 649 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $140k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.15%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,528
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3125 Briar St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	1mo	$170,000	$118	93
3110 Beaver Creek Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+7%)	3mo	$223,500	$143	82
34300 Countryside Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+7%)	7mo	$98,500	$63	77
3020 Moss Hill St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+6%)	8mo	$155,000	$101	76
34334 Timberland Blvd	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,357 (-7%)	8mo	$170,000	$125	70
3124 Pond Hollow St #183	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,586 (+9%)	12mo	$115,000	$73	69
3025 Hickory Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-7%)	14mo	$153,000	$113	62
3230 Bohannon Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+11%)	2mo	$153,500	$95	53
3630 Kiah Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+11%)	8mo	$250,000	$154	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,282
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $20,444
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,404 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,913/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$217
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,694

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $657	-5% $609	+0% $561	+5% $513	+10% $465
Rent	-10% $371	-5% $466	+0% $561	+5% $656	+10% $751
Rate	-1.0pp $646	-0.5pp $604	base $561	+0.5pp $517	+1.0pp $472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2883 Peony Prairie Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,099	$1.25	12d	1	0.21mi
34272 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,300	$1.31	0d	1	0.23mi
34276 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,500	$1.49	25d	1	0.23mi
2839 Maiden Grass Isle Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,600	$1.68	25d	1	0.26mi
34211 Jasper Stone Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1852	$3,200	$1.73	25d	1	0.26mi
34350 Redwood Dawn Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,350	$1.40	6d	1	0.28mi
33801 Jasmine Star Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,300	$1.52	25d	1	0.52mi
2516 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	25d	1	0.66mi
2415 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,300	$1.68	6d	1	0.69mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	17d	1	0.70mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,849	$1.35	13d	1	0.70mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	25d	1	0.70mi
2358 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	3d	1	0.75mi
2350 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1555	$2,500	$1.61	25d	1	0.75mi
2313 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1555	$2,000	$1.29	6d	1	0.78mi
2308 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,825	$1.33	17d	1	0.78mi
2264 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	25d	1	0.83mi
34142 Polacca Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	25d	1	0.87mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	23d	1	0.91mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	25d	1	0.91mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,900	$1.38	12d	1	0.91mi
2187 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,945	$1.42	16d	1	0.92mi
2085 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,200	$1.60	6d	1	1.02mi
2081 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$2,200	$1.42	19d	1	1.02mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,360	$2.23	0d	13	1.08mi
35077 Ackley Trce Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,500	$1.34	19d	1	1.12mi
34916 Mulrion Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	25d	1	1.15mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	25d	1	1.16mi
34214 Rogallo Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,050	$1.30	25d	1	1.25mi
34218 Cinder Way Unit 34218 Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$1,950	$1.24	0d	1	1.30mi
34214 Cinder Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,200	$1.33	6d	1	1.30mi
4410 Sailplane Ct Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1574	$2,100	$1.33	25d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $169,900 Pending 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-04-17
   listed $169,900 Active
8. 2022-03-31
   soldstatus $140,000
9. 2021-12-17
   soldstatus $65,000
10. 2001-03-28
    soldstatus $55,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,913 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,913 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,913
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,308
• − Management: −$2,308
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $4,405
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,057
• After-tax cash flow: $5,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+206.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2001-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $55,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,913 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.