390 Lucia Way · Cleveland, TX 77327

$149,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,208 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW in the Santa Fe Village Community! Lennar Crestmore Collection "Whiles" Plan with Elevation "B". This new single-level home boasts a modern, low-maintenance layout. An inviting open-concept layout can be found off the entry, combining the kitchen, living and dining areas to simplify everyday multitasking. Three bedrooms are tucked away at the back of the home, including the luxurious owner’s suite with a generous walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Houston El Norte Property Association; Annual association fee of $120

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2025); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built by Lennar; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced private yard; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (gas)
• Interior features: Quartz counters; Walk-in pantry; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $149,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $157,040.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Southside El (math 17% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 905 students, 95% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $147,749 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.21%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
390 Lucia Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,208 (0%)	1mo	$172,990	$143	99
386 Lucia Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-1%)	1mo	$163,990	$138	97
678 Maria Elena Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+5%)	2mo	$178,990	$141	91
803 Hays St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-1%)	6mo	$125,000	$104	79
393 Lucia Way	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,375 (+14%)	1mo	$170,990	$124	71
405 Lucia Way	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,375 (+14%)	1mo	$170,990	$124	71
1000 Crescent Blvd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,132 (-6%)	2mo	$159,000	$140	61
218 N Franklin Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,062 (-12%)	3mo	$165,000	$155	57
907 Linia Alfred St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,225 (+1%)	8mo	$59,500	$49	56
605 Arvon St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,260 (+4%)	1mo	$82,200	$65	55
1204 Crescent Blvd	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,156 (-4%)	4mo	$149,900	$130	51
1105 S Fenner Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+11%)	8mo	$172,900	$129	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-13,979
• Equity at exit: $23,415

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $7,339
• Equity at exit: $13,578

Cash invested: $43,971 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,582 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$824
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$196 /mo · $2,356/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,386

Max offer price $157,040

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,260
• Closing costs: $4,711
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 Johnson ST Unit J Cleveland, TX	4.0	1.0	1346	$1,350	$1.00	7d	1	0.04mi
511 S Roosevelt Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	43d	1	0.39mi
700 Lyle West Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,195	$1.11	1d	1	0.66mi
307 Sleepy Hollow Dr Cleveland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	738	$1,440	$1.95	1d	4	0.78mi
1018 Green Ave Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1337	$1,500	$1.12	22d	1	0.96mi
201 Pine Bend Ct Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	43d	1	0.98mi
1301 Nevell St Cleveland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,255	$1.52	1d	4	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,999 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,999 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,999 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,999 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,999 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $149,999 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,356
• − Insurance: −$785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,519
• − Management: −$1,519
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,568
• Taxable loss: −$681
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$164
• After-tax cash flow: $2,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 85/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home in Santa Fe Village offers a modern, low-maintenance layout with a spacious floor plan and well-maintained exterior. Simple updates like painting the exterior and trimming the landscaping can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TX
• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $172,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $129,040 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $136,240 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $148,740 HARMLS