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145 Coyote Trl
D Composite 41.3
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +13.1/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.0/30.0
  • Schools +6.2/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.7/10.0
  • Livability +3.7/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • DSCR +1.2/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$250,000

145 Coyote Trl · Caddo Mills, TX 75135
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,826 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market
Built 2021 Good condition 7,187 sqft lot 2-car garage $137/sqft · 11% below area Est $285k · 12% under $44/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Better than new in Trailstone! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,859 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space with upgrades already in place. Enjoy added gutters, a whole-home water filtration system, water softener, backyard trees, and a fire pit ready for relaxing Texas evenings. Even better, the refrigerator, washer, and dryer will convey with the home! Located in the sought-after Trailstone community, residents enjoy an impressive lineup of neighborhood amenities, including a resort-style pool, clubhouse, playground, splash pad, stocked catch-and-release ponds, gazebo, and plenty of green space.

Key facts

  • Clubhouse
  • Water softener
  • Fire pit

Tags

WATER SOFTENERBACKYARD TREESFIRE PITRESORT-STYLE POOLCLUBHOUSEPLAYGROUND

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-364 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (25.7% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (13.4% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $186k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
  • Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Frances And Jeannette Lee El (math 63% / reading 55%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 571 students, 29% FRL); Caddo Mills Middle (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 416 students, 28% FRL); Caddo Mills H S (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 681 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: 505 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

  • Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
  • Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $185,772 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.87%
Cap rate
4.55%
Cash-on-cash
-6.23%
DSCR
0.72
GRM
9.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$285,246
List price
$250,000
Delta
-5.70%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
108 Condor Pass 0.22mi 4/2.0 1,830 (+0%) 5mo $267,999 $146 85
127 Longhorn Pass 0.11mi 4/2.0 2,023 (+11%) 2mo $295,000 $146 76
200 Calico Ln 0.11mi 4/2.0 2,011 (+10%) 3mo $299,000 $149 75
211 Bobcat Ln 0.17mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,735 (-5%) 6mo $294,030 $169 74
500 Carthage St 0.39mi 4/2.0 1,935 (+6%) 1mo $294,490 $152 71
167 Mockingbird Way 0.19mi 4/2.0 2,017 (+10%) 4mo $289,000 $143 70
213 Pintail Dr 0.36mi 4/2.0 2,012 (+10%) 2mo $289,000 $144 64
404 Flintlock Rd 0.38mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,735 (-5%) 6mo $287,490 $166 64
504 Carthage St 0.41mi 4/2.0 2,017 (+10%) 1mo $299,990 $149 62
514 Carthage St 0.46mi 4/2.0 2,017 (+10%) 4mo $338,990 $168 58
513 Carthage St 0.45mi 4/3.0 2,060 (+13%) 2mo $304,490 $148 52
506 Carthage St 0.42mi 4/3.0 2,060 (+13%) 4mo $333,490 $162 52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-26.9%
Equity multiple
0.09×
Total profit
$-63,422
Equity at exit
$37,276
10-year hold
IRR
-24.0%
Equity multiple
-0.20×
Total profit
$-84,048
Equity at exit
$21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
65 active · 14 under contract
Months of supply
32.5 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$293,990 ($160/sqft)
Median days on market
97 d
This list price
lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking
-2.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75135

Home prices YoY
-13.5%
Active inventory
505
Price-to-rent
9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,165 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,311
Tax from tax record
$615 /mo · $7,375/yr
Insurance
$104
HOA
$44
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$455
Net cashflow
$-364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,625
Max offer price $185,772
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-222 -5% $-293 +0% $-364 +5% $-434 +10% $-505
Rent -10% $-535 -5% $-449 +0% $-364 +5% $-278 +10% $-193
Rate -1.0pp $-238 -0.5pp $-300 base $-364 +0.5pp $-428 +1.0pp $-494

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$62,500
Closing costs
$7,500
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 24 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
151 Coyote Trl Caddo Mills, TX 3.0 2.0 1738 $2,350 $1.35 18d 1 0.01mi
132 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX 3.0 2.0 1780 $2,400 $1.35 108d 1 0.10mi
152 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 2.0 1826 $1,900 $1.04 51d 1 0.11mi
210 Calico Ln Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 2.0 2012 $2,350 $1.17 57d 1 0.13mi
176 Mockingbird Way Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 2.0 2035 $1,995 $0.98 48d 1 0.18mi
187 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 2.0 2003 $2,195 $1.10 101d 1 0.19mi
116 Kiskadee Trl Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 2.0 2018 $1,995 $0.99 79d 1 0.22mi
221 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 2.0 2010 $1,950 $0.97 63d 1 0.26mi
221 Longhorn Pass Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 2.0 2014 $2,000 $0.99 78d 1 0.26mi
218 Whitetail Way Caddo Mills, TX 3.0 2.0 1735 $2,195 $1.27 139d 1 0.28mi
509 Range Rd Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 3.0 2060 $2,500 $1.21 97d 1 0.44mi
125 Smarty Jones St Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 2.0 1690 $2,100 $1.24 68d 1 1.10mi
157 Silver Charm Ln Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 3.0 2097 $2,200 $1.05 20d 1 1.22mi
103 Whirlway Ln Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 2.0 1801 $1,795 $1.00 30d 1 1.30mi
116 Sir Barton Ln Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 3.0 2097 $2,100 $1.00 2d 1 1.35mi
116 Sir Barton Ln Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 3.5 2097 $2,100 $1.00 1d 1 1.35mi
181 Seabiscuit Dr Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 2.0 1598 $1,995 $1.25 139d 1 1.42mi
100 Stovall Ln Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 2.0 2096 $1,850 $0.88 80d 1 1.42mi
110 Real Quiet Ln Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 3.0 2158 $2,100 $0.97 118d 1 1.46mi
218 Alice Springs Ln Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 3.0 2272 $2,350 $1.03 41d 1 1.47mi
218 Alice Springs Ln Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 3.0 2272 $2,250 $0.99 51d 1 1.47mi
208 Alice Springs Ln Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 3.0 2118 $1,995 $0.94 64d 1 1.47mi
208 Alice Springs Ln Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 3.0 2118 $1,995 $0.94 79d 1 1.47mi
111 Real Quiet Ln Caddo Mills, TX 4.0 2.0 2106 $2,000 $0.95 69d 1 1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Community features include clubhouse, community pool, park, playground, greenbelt, fishing, jogging/bike path, and sidewalks
Financial info
Loan types accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA, VA
HOA & community
Mandatory HOAAnnual HOA fee (paid annually)HOA includes full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, and management feesHOA management handled by Neighborhood Management

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener and inside entranceCovered parking for 2Driveway
Security
Security systemSmoke detectors
Utilities
Individual water meterElectricity connectedCable availableSidewalk and curbsConcrete roadsAll-weather roadCommunity mailbox
Home design
Single family residenceOne storyResidential propertySmart home features presentDeed restrictions
Construction
Brick constructionComposition shingle roofSlab foundationBuilt in 2021 (preowned)
Exterior features
Covered front and rear porchesCovered porch(es)Fire pitGuttersWood fenced backyardFenced back yardLandscaped yardSprinkler systemSubdivision settingEasement for utilities

Interior

Kitchen
Electric rangeDishwasherDisposalWater filterWater purifierKitchen islandGranite counters
Bedrooms
4 bedrooms, all on the main levelPrimary bedroom with ensuite bath, dual sinks, separate shower, and walk-in closet
Flooring
CarpetLuxury vinyl plank
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Electric heatingCentral electric air conditioning
Interior features
Open floorplanEat-in kitchenKitchen islandGranite countersBuilt-in featuresCable TV availableWalk-in closet(s)Window coverings
Laundry & utility
Full-size washer/dryer areaElectric dryer hookupUtility roomWater softenerTankless water heater

HOA detail $44/mo · $528/yr

Likely covers
waterpool

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $250,000 Active 6 DOM
  2. 2026-09-23
    days on market $250,000 Active 5 DOM
  3. 2026-09-22
    days on market $250,000 Active 4 DOM
  4. 2026-09-21
    days on market $250,000 Active 3 DOM
  5. 2026-09-20
    days on market $250,000 Active 2 DOM
  6. 2026-09-19
    remarks 699-char remark
  7. 2026-09-19
    pricedays on marketlisting id $250,000 Active 1 DOM
  8. 2026-07-28
    days on market $269,000 Active 74 DOM
  9. 2026-07-26
    days on market $269,000 Active 72 DOM
  10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $269,000 Active 70 DOM
  11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $269,000 Active 69 DOM
  12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $269,000 Active 68 DOM
  13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $269,000 Active 67 DOM
  14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $269,000 Active 66 DOM
  15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $269,000 Active 64 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $269,000 Active 63 DOM
  17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $269,000 Active 62 DOM
  18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $269,000 Active 61 DOM
  19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $269,000 Active 60 DOM
  20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $269,000 Active 59 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $269,000 Active 58 DOM
  22. 2026-07-12
    price $269,000 Active 57 DOM
  23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $275,000 Active 57 DOM
  24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $275,000 Active 56 DOM
  25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $275,000 Active 55 DOM
  26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 53 DOM
  27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $275,000 Active 52 DOM
  28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $275,000 Active 51 DOM
  29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 50 DOM
  30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 49 DOM
  31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 48 DOM
  32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 47 DOM
  33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 46 DOM
  34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $275,000 Active 45 DOM
  35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $275,000 Active 44 DOM
  36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $275,000 Active 43 DOM
  37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $275,000 Active 42 DOM
  38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $275,000 Active 40 DOM
  39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $275,000 Active 38 DOM
  40. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $275,000 Active 37 DOM
  41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $285,000 Active 34 DOM
  42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $285,000 Active 33 DOM
  43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $285,000 Active 32 DOM
  44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $285,000 Active 31 DOM
  45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $285,000 Active 29 DOM
  46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $285,000 Active 28 DOM
  47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $285,000 Active 25 DOM
  48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,000 Active 24 DOM
  49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 23 DOM
  50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 20 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$7,375 · $615/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$7,375 · $615/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$25,977
− Mortgage interest
−$14,004
− Property taxes
−$7,375
− Insurance
−$1,250
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,078
− Management
−$2,078
− HOA
−$528
− Depreciation
−$7,273
Taxable loss
−$8,608
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,066
After-tax cash flow
$-2,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,130–$27,390 screening

This beautifully maintained single-story home in the Trailstone community offers modern comfort and thoughtful upgrades, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both landscaping improvements — enhances curb appeal and outdoor enjoyment
  • Both painting exterior — refreshes the home's appearance
  • Both upgrading lighting — improves curb appeal and safety

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Frances And Jeannette Lee El B- TX #455/4,322 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 Middle Caddo Mills Middle C+ TX #301/1,662 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Caddo Mills H S B+ TX #82/1,632 Nat'l #1,629/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Caddo Mills ISD
NCES district ID
4812390
Math proficiency
59% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency
59% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income
$65,383
Composite
51.73/100
National rank
#1684
State rank
#60 of 826 in TX
B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Caddo Mills

Score
73/100
State rank
#216
US rank
#5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Hunt · 97,090 people
City population
10,265
Metro
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP)
10,265
Household income
$95,428
Rent vs Own
13.0% rent · 87.0% own
Severe rent burden
20% of renters

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
97,090 people
By 2030
100,452 · +3.5%
By 2040
106,544 · +9.7%
By 2050
111,218 · +14.6%
By 2075
121,695 · +25.3%
By 2100
123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (67%)
Race & ethnicity
White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born
7% · Canada, South Korea
Languages at home
84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

2024 margin
Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
2008→2024 swing
-14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-13.8% since first listed
6 events — show timeline
  • 2026-09-18 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
  • 2026-07-29 Listing Removed NTREIS
  • 2026-07-11 Price Changed $269,000 NTREIS
  • 2026-06-21 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
  • 2026-05-19 Price Changed $285,000 NTREIS
  • 2026-05-09 Listed $290,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+56.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,375 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…