6535 E Lone Mountain Rd N · Cave Creek, AZ 85331

$699,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,138 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1969 1.71 ac lot $327/sqft · 21% below area Est $883k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller is motivated, send your offer! Enjoy the stunning mountain views surrounding Cave Creek, including Elephant Mountain, from this 3-bed, 2-bath home on a 1.7-acre horse property. Great opportunity for a buyer to update and build equity. Plenty of room for animals, toys, storage, and projects. The interior features tile floors, soaring ceilings with exposed beams, and a dramatic floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace. The primary suite includes dual sinks, double mirrored closets, and private patio access. Step outside to an expansive patio with pavers and amazing mountain views--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home is a blank canvas, ready for your personal touches and updates.

Key facts

• Galley kitchen
• Horse property
• Covered patio

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• HORSE PROPERTY
• COVERED PATIO
• GALLEY KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $699k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-711 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $596k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $521k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $521k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.5% in Cave Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#325 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 396 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,215/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 169% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($636k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $201k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $699k implies a 288% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $521,462 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.36%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $882,869
• List price: $699,000
• Delta: -20.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6535 E Lone Mountain Rd N	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,138 (0%)	1mo	$625,000	$292	95
6444 E Highland Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	2,165 (+1%)	8mo	$755,000	$349	78
6701 E Azure Hills Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	2,355 (+10%)	16mo	$1,400,000	$594	58
6226 E Seco Pl	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,222 (+4%)	17mo	$882,000	$397	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-158,479
• Equity at exit: $104,223

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-195,998
• Equity at exit: $60,437

Cash invested: $195,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85331

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Active inventory: 396
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,215 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$874 /mo · $10,485/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,095
• Net cashflow: $-711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,115

Max offer price $596,105

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-228	-5% $-470	+0% $-711	+5% $-953	+10% $-1,194
Rent	-10% $-1,123	-5% $-917	+0% $-711	+5% $-505	+10% $-299
Rate	-1.0pp $-359	-0.5pp $-533	base $-711	+0.5pp $-892	+1.0pp $-1,076

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,750
• Closing costs: $20,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38500 N School House Rd Unit 50 Cave Creek, AZ	3.0	3.0	2113	$5,000	$2.37	44d	1	1.27mi
38500 N School House Rd #40 Cave Creek, AZ	3.0	3.0	2113	$6,000	$2.84	44d	1	1.28mi
6525 E Cave Creek Rd Cave Creek, AZ	2.0	2.5	2380	$6,000	$2.52	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-12
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 702-char remark

   Show marketing remark (702 chars)

   Seller is motivated, send your offer! Enjoy the stunning mountain views surrounding Cave Creek, including Elephant Mountain, from this 3-bed, 2-bath home on a 1.7-acre horse property. Great opportunity for a buyer to update and build equity. Plenty of room for animals, toys, storage, and projects. The interior features tile floors, soaring ceilings with exposed beams, and a dramatic floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace. The primary suite includes dual sinks, double mirrored closets, and private patio access. Step outside to an expansive patio with pavers and amazing mountain views--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home is a blank canvas, ready for your personal touches and updates.

2. 2026-05-03
   price $699,000 702-char remark

   Show marketing remark (702 chars)

   Seller is motivated, send your offer! Enjoy the stunning mountain views surrounding Cave Creek, including Elephant Mountain, from this 3-bed, 2-bath home on a 1.7-acre horse property. Great opportunity for a buyer to update and build equity. Plenty of room for animals, toys, storage, and projects. The interior features tile floors, soaring ceilings with exposed beams, and a dramatic floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace. The primary suite includes dual sinks, double mirrored closets, and private patio access. Step outside to an expansive patio with pavers and amazing mountain views--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home is a blank canvas, ready for your personal touches and updates.

3. 2026-04-22
   status Active 702-char remark

   Show marketing remark (702 chars)

   Seller is motivated, send your offer! Enjoy the stunning mountain views surrounding Cave Creek, including Elephant Mountain, from this 3-bed, 2-bath home on a 1.7-acre horse property. Great opportunity for a buyer to update and build equity. Plenty of room for animals, toys, storage, and projects. The interior features tile floors, soaring ceilings with exposed beams, and a dramatic floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace. The primary suite includes dual sinks, double mirrored closets, and private patio access. Step outside to an expansive patio with pavers and amazing mountain views--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home is a blank canvas, ready for your personal touches and updates.

4. 2026-04-12
   historical 702-char remark

   Show marketing remark (702 chars)

   Seller is motivated, send your offer! Enjoy the stunning mountain views surrounding Cave Creek, including Elephant Mountain, from this 3-bed, 2-bath home on a 1.7-acre horse property. Great opportunity for a buyer to update and build equity. Plenty of room for animals, toys, storage, and projects. The interior features tile floors, soaring ceilings with exposed beams, and a dramatic floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace. The primary suite includes dual sinks, double mirrored closets, and private patio access. Step outside to an expansive patio with pavers and amazing mountain views--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home is a blank canvas, ready for your personal touches and updates.

5. 2026-04-01
   price $739,000 702-char remark

   Show marketing remark (702 chars)

   Seller is motivated, send your offer! Enjoy the stunning mountain views surrounding Cave Creek, including Elephant Mountain, from this 3-bed, 2-bath home on a 1.7-acre horse property. Great opportunity for a buyer to update and build equity. Plenty of room for animals, toys, storage, and projects. The interior features tile floors, soaring ceilings with exposed beams, and a dramatic floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace. The primary suite includes dual sinks, double mirrored closets, and private patio access. Step outside to an expansive patio with pavers and amazing mountain views--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home is a blank canvas, ready for your personal touches and updates.

6. 2026-03-15
   price $775,000 702-char remark

   Show marketing remark (702 chars)

   Seller is motivated, send your offer! Enjoy the stunning mountain views surrounding Cave Creek, including Elephant Mountain, from this 3-bed, 2-bath home on a 1.7-acre horse property. Great opportunity for a buyer to update and build equity. Plenty of room for animals, toys, storage, and projects. The interior features tile floors, soaring ceilings with exposed beams, and a dramatic floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace. The primary suite includes dual sinks, double mirrored closets, and private patio access. Step outside to an expansive patio with pavers and amazing mountain views--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home is a blank canvas, ready for your personal touches and updates.

7. 2026-02-25
   price $799,000 702-char remark

   Show marketing remark (702 chars)

   Seller is motivated, send your offer! Enjoy the stunning mountain views surrounding Cave Creek, including Elephant Mountain, from this 3-bed, 2-bath home on a 1.7-acre horse property. Great opportunity for a buyer to update and build equity. Plenty of room for animals, toys, storage, and projects. The interior features tile floors, soaring ceilings with exposed beams, and a dramatic floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace. The primary suite includes dual sinks, double mirrored closets, and private patio access. Step outside to an expansive patio with pavers and amazing mountain views--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home is a blank canvas, ready for your personal touches and updates.

8. 2026-02-15
   price $825,000 702-char remark

   Show marketing remark (702 chars)

   Seller is motivated, send your offer! Enjoy the stunning mountain views surrounding Cave Creek, including Elephant Mountain, from this 3-bed, 2-bath home on a 1.7-acre horse property. Great opportunity for a buyer to update and build equity. Plenty of room for animals, toys, storage, and projects. The interior features tile floors, soaring ceilings with exposed beams, and a dramatic floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace. The primary suite includes dual sinks, double mirrored closets, and private patio access. Step outside to an expansive patio with pavers and amazing mountain views--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home is a blank canvas, ready for your personal touches and updates.

9. 2026-02-09
   price $850,000 702-char remark

   Show marketing remark (702 chars)

   Seller is motivated, send your offer! Enjoy the stunning mountain views surrounding Cave Creek, including Elephant Mountain, from this 3-bed, 2-bath home on a 1.7-acre horse property. Great opportunity for a buyer to update and build equity. Plenty of room for animals, toys, storage, and projects. The interior features tile floors, soaring ceilings with exposed beams, and a dramatic floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace. The primary suite includes dual sinks, double mirrored closets, and private patio access. Step outside to an expansive patio with pavers and amazing mountain views--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home is a blank canvas, ready for your personal touches and updates.

10. 2026-02-01
    price $875,000 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Seller is motivated, send your offer! Enjoy the stunning mountain views surrounding Cave Creek, including Elephant Mountain, from this 3-bed, 2-bath home on a 1.7-acre horse property. Great opportunity for a buyer to update and build equity. Plenty of room for animals, toys, storage, and projects. The interior features tile floors, soaring ceilings with exposed beams, and a dramatic floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace. The primary suite includes dual sinks, double mirrored closets, and private patio access. Step outside to an expansive patio with pavers and amazing mountain views--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home is a blank canvas, ready for your personal touches and updates.

11. 2026-01-26
    listed $900,000 Active 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    Seller is motivated, send your offer! Enjoy the stunning mountain views surrounding Cave Creek, including Elephant Mountain, from this 3-bed, 2-bath home on a 1.7-acre horse property. Great opportunity for a buyer to update and build equity. Plenty of room for animals, toys, storage, and projects. The interior features tile floors, soaring ceilings with exposed beams, and a dramatic floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace. The primary suite includes dual sinks, double mirrored closets, and private patio access. Step outside to an expansive patio with pavers and amazing mountain views--perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This home is a blank canvas, ready for your personal touches and updates.

12. 1992-03-16
    soldstatus $180,000
13. 1992-01-07
    soldstatus $138,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,155
• − Property taxes: −$10,485
• − Insurance: −$3,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,006
• − Management: −$5,006
• − Depreciation: −$20,335
• Taxable loss: −$20,906
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,017
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cave Creek

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #25577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cave Creek, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 31,968
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,968
• Household income: $129,083
• Rent vs Own: 7.4% rent · 92.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 169.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.66%
• Current HPI: 316.6855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+406.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $699,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $739,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $775,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $799,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $825,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $850,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $875,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $900,000 ARMLS
• 1992-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 1992-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,348 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.