E477 County Road 16 · New Bavaria, OH 43527

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,102 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1900 1.09 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located on over an acre, equipped with an adequate barn and two smaller outbuildings, this property has what it takes to create a lifestyle of peaceful country living at a reasonable price point. Some updates on this home include a new water heater in the Spring of 2026, a full kitchen remodel in 2025, new carpet throughout the home in 2023, new pex plumbing through most of the home, and a new well in 2018. There is a 1,000 gallon propane tank, water salt system tank, oxidation tanks, and peroxide injection system that are all owned, not leased. This home is being sold AS IS.

Key facts

• New pex plumbing
• New well
• Over an acre

Tags

• OVER AN ACRE
• ADEQUATE BARN
• TWO SMALLER OUTBUILDINGS
• FULL KITCHEN REMODEL
• NEW PEX PLUMBING
• NEW WELL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1.09-acre lot with county road frontage

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Propane; Wi-Fi connected; Private well; Septic system
• Home design: Single-family house; One and one-half story; No attached units or common walls; Entry on main level
• Construction: Shingle siding; Metal roof; Crawl space foundation; Built with traditional house construction materials
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Barn(s) and outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (main level, 11 x 15)
• Bedrooms: Second-floor bedroom (12 x 10); Upper loft (11 x 13)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry (9 x 9)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#756 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Holgate Local (rural): math 76% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #106 of 656 in OH (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Holgate Elementary School (math 82% / reading 77%, grade A, #173 of 1,584 statewide, top 12%, 165 students, 0% FRL); Holgate High School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade B+, #89 of 781 statewide, top 12%, 235 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 42% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Henry County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $97,828 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.55%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $68,770
• Equity at exit: $126,033

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.32×
• Total profit: $208,262
• Equity at exit: $271,795

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43527

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,163/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,125

Max offer price $119,402

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-76	+0% $-116	+5% $-156	+10% $-195
Rent	-10% $-193	-5% $-155	+0% $-116	+5% $-77	+10% $-39
Rate	-1.0pp $-46	-0.5pp $-80	base $-116	+0.5pp $-152	+1.0pp $-189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $139,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   remarks 582-char remark
4. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-14
   remarks 551-char remark
10. 2026-06-14
    listed $139,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,163 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,673 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$510/yr (+$42/mo · 43.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,739
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,163
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$939
• − Management: −$939
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$3,908
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$938
• After-tax cash flow: $-454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holgate Local
• NCES district ID: 3904757
• Math proficiency: 76% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,077
• Composite: 63.32/100
• National rank: #627
• State rank: #106 of 656 in OH

Livability — New Bavaria

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #756
• US rank: #13656

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry · 27,211 people
• Population (ZIP): 2,092
• Household income: $63,698
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 19.4

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,204 people
• By 2030: 26,657 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 25,149 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 23,361 · -14.1%
• By 2075: 20,409 · -25.0%
• By 2100: 18,199 · -33.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.7) · D 26.2% · R 72.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.9pp · 2024: -46.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.7 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+39.8 2012: R+18.6 2008: R+12.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.42%
• Current HPI: 221.8347
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $139,900 NORIS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,163 · +50.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.