4748 Lake Rd · Berkshire, VT 05457

$145,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,511 sqft · Other public records · 213 Days on market

Built 1900 0.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

7 room, 4 bedroom, 1 bath house featuring 1844 feet of living space. Sold as-is.

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 213 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Taxes TBD
• Financial info: Property is foreclosed / bank-owned / REO; Auction scheduled (2026-04-07 at 8:00 EST)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway access (dirt)
• Utilities: No electric service listed; Water source unknown; Sewer service unknown; No internet service listed; No other utilities listed
• Home design: Farmhouse style; Existing property; Metal roof
• Construction: Wood frame construction with vinyl siding; Built in 1900
• Exterior features: Level lot; Dirt driveway

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating listed
• Interior features: 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $408 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 200 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.07%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $105,011
• Equity at exit: $130,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.11×
• Total profit: $288,838
• Equity at exit: $281,703

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05457

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,786 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,182/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,269

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $491	-5% $449	+0% $408	+5% $367	+10% $326
Rent	-10% $267	-5% $338	+0% $408	+5% $479	+10% $550
Rate	-1.0pp $481	-0.5pp $445	base $408	+0.5pp $371	+1.0pp $333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-17
   status Active
2. 2026-02-03
   historical
3. 2025-10-08
   listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,182 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,469 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$286/yr (+$24/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,182
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,715
• − Management: −$1,715
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $2,757
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$662
• After-tax cash flow: $4,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Berkshire

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,787

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,374 people
• By 2030: 50,718 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 50,557 · +0.4%
• By 2050: 48,832 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 43,526 · -13.6%
• By 2100: 33,970 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 47.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: 24.8pp · 2024: 3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.0 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+3.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.56%
• Current HPI: 326.3575
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2026-02-03 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $145,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,182 · +34.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.