830 Deguise St · Forked River, NJ 08734

$599,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,862 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2006 8,276 sqft lot Est $603k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Another Quality built Eastport home. New 4 bedroom 2.5 bath colonial with stone driveway in Lanoka Harbor. Loads of Extras! Ready for occupancy. MUST SEE!!

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Timberline roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Gas cooking
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Includes blinds/shades; Hot tub
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($34k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $600k).
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $315k; list at $600k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $599,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.32%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $603,288
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
830 Deguise St	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,862 (0%)	1mo	$625,000	$336	97
906 Bowsprit Pt	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,761 (-5%)	0mo	$855,000	$486	74
602 Drew Ave	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,701 (-9%)	3mo	$450,000	$265	65
409 Atlantic City Ct	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-6%)	11mo	$740,000	$420	60
935 Mallard Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,699 (-9%)	8mo	$537,000	$316	57
406 Lawrence Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,836 (-1%)	11mo	$475,000	$259	57
714 Laurel Blvd	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,083 (+12%)	10mo	$710,000	$341	52
307 Clairmore Ave	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,715 (-8%)	12mo	$487,500	$284	48
834 E Hickory Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,603 (-14%)	4mo	$520,000	$324	47
308 Predmore Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,794 (-4%)	8mo	$465,000	$259	45
409 Sinclair Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,598 (-14%)	5mo	$491,000	$307	44
321 Lawrence Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,702 (-9%)	7mo	$579,000	$340	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $83,873
• Equity at exit: $89,462

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $307,122
• Equity at exit: $51,877

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08734

• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,219 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$621 /mo · $7,456/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,936
• Net cashflow: $2,838

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,626

Max offer price $599,999

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
406 Lawrence Dr Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	2.0	1836	$16,000	$8.71	1d	1	0.49mi
209 Sinclair Ave Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	1.0	1352	$3,000	$2.22	43d	1	0.64mi
209 Sinclair Ave Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	1.0	1352	$3,300	$2.44	20d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   price $599,999
3. 2026-04-09
   listed $625,000 Active
4. 2026-04-04
   historical $625,000
5. 2007-05-01
   soldstatus $315,000 155-char remark

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   Another Quality built Eastport home. New 4 bedroom 2.5 bath colonial with stone driveway in Lanoka Harbor. Loads of Extras! Ready for occupancy. MUST SEE!!

6. 2007-05-01
   soldstatus $37,500

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   Another Quality built Eastport home. New 4 bedroom 2.5 bath colonial with stone driveway in Lanoka Harbor. Loads of Extras! Ready for occupancy. MUST SEE!!

7. 2006-02-09
   listed $323,000 155-char remark

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   Another Quality built Eastport home. New 4 bedroom 2.5 bath colonial with stone driveway in Lanoka Harbor. Loads of Extras! Ready for occupancy. MUST SEE!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,456 · $621/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,198 · $933/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,742/yr (+$312/mo · 50.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $110,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$7,456
• − Insurance: −$8,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,850
• − Management: −$8,850
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable income: $26,285
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,308
• After-tax cash flow: $27,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,028

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.83%
• Current HPI: 368.8557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+85.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $599,999 MOMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $625,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-04 Coming Soon $625,000 MOMLS
• 2007-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
• 2007-05-01 Sold (MLS) $315,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-02-09 Listed $323,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,456 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.