3809 Catalpa #85 · Jackson, MI 49201

$68,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 126 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming ~ Cozy ~ Cute

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 125 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $68,900

Exterior

• Home design: Spec inventory, Walnut Ridge plan; Address: 3809 Catalpa #85, Jackson, MI 49201

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1,216

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $504 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 5.4% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#197 in MI, #4,970 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, employment F.
• Northwest Community Schools (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 540 in MI (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 366 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 317 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (103 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $476 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $60,632 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.33%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $44,992
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4106 Sycamore	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	10mo	$14,000	$11	79
4326 Laurel	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	10mo	$43,000	$37	71
3840 Jarrow Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+4%)	5mo	$67,500	$54	61
4112 Garland Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-14%)	15mo	$25,000	$24	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $27,483
• Equity at exit: $10,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $95,140
• Equity at exit: $5,957

Cash invested: $19,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49201

• Rents YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,240 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$361
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,034/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $504

Break-even live

Break-even rent $603

Max offer price $68,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $551	-5% $527	+0% $504	+5% $480	+10% $456
Rent	-10% $406	-5% $455	+0% $504	+5% $553	+10% $602
Rate	-1.0pp $538	-0.5pp $521	base $504	+0.5pp $486	+1.0pp $468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,225
• Closing costs: $2,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3999 Sherwood Lakes Blvd Jackson, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,339	$1.27	45d	1	0.23mi
3004 N Pointe Dr Jackson, MI	2.0	2.0	945	$1,025	$1.08	45d	1	1.20mi
3011 N Pointe Dr Jackson, MI	2.0	1.0	859	$1,025	$1.19	45d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $68,900 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,900 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,900 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,900 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,900 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $68,900 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $68,900 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $68,900 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $68,900 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $68,900 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $68,900 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $68,900 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $68,900 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $68,900 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $68,900 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $68,900 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $68,900 Active 106 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,859
• − Property taxes: −$1,034
• − Insurance: −$344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,191
• − Management: −$1,191
• − Depreciation: −$2,004
• Taxable income: $5,259
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,262
• After-tax cash flow: $4,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home requires cosmetic repairs to the exterior and interior, with a focus on repainting and replacing carpet. Fresh paint and new carpet would significantly improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Driveway — Significant cracking and wear.
• Major Siding — Weathered and peeling, indicating significant deterioration.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and the home's overall appearance.
• Both Replace carpet — New carpet would enhance the living area's aesthetic and comfort level.
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping would improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Driveway · Significant cracking and wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Siding · Weathered and peeling, indicating significant deterioration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Replace carpet — New carpet would enhance the living area's aesthetic and comfort level. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping would improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2626010
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,509
• Composite: 25.88/100
• National rank: #7342
• State rank: #360 of 540 in MI

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #4970

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 85,581 people
• City population: 85,581
• Metro: Jackson, MI
• Population (ZIP): 49,107
• Household income: $74,484
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 840.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 156,365 people
• By 2030: 153,123 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 144,981 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 135,671 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 113,833 · -27.2%
• By 2100: 86,592 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.6% · R 59.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+5.8 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.89%
• Current HPI: 185.3773
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.32%
• Metro: Jackson, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B