20309 77th Avenue Ct E · Frederickson, WA 98387

$239,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,880 sqft · Manufactured · 150 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $201k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Price drop AND added bonus incentive- under contract before July 4th and receive $1500 credit to use towards appliances! * Have you been looking for an (almost) brand new home top to bottom under 300K?! Well look no further, because this is it. This home has been remodeled from the floor to the ceiling and truly SPARKLES. New 30 year Malarkey asphalt roof, carpet & flooring, cabinets, furnace and heat pump, granite countertops, toilets, baseboards, paint (inside and out) dishwasher, microwave, hot water tank, thermostat. .. the list just keeps going on. Did we mention a 7000 sq ft lot AND a 340 sq ft covered deck?! And to top it off it is located in one of Pierce County's finest pa

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Close to schools
• Close to restaurants

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• REMODELED
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount $825; Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Park approved for sale; Cascade Green park with 44 homes; Pets allowed (see remarks); Land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water (Washington Water); Tacoma Power electricity; Electric energy source
• Home design: Manufactured home (Triple Wide); Updated/remodeled condition; One level; North-facing; Entry and living room; Family room
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation with tie downs; Manufactured after 6/15/1976
• Exterior features: Cement-planked exterior; Cement plank construction; Cul-de-sac; Dead-end street; Paved; Sidewalk; Common area; Playground; Park sidewalks; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Kitchen with eating space; Dining room
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Vinyl plank; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Skylights; Walk-in closet; Patio/porch/deck; Awnings; Landscaped
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with 50-gallon electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $814 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.5% in Frederickson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#197 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Bethel School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #103 of 291 in WA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pioneer Valley Elementary (512 students, 51% FRL); Graham Kapowsin High School (2,011 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $211,156 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.55%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20315 77th Ave E #31	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,847 (-2%)	17mo	$184,000	$100	82
7725 203rd Street Ct E #27	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (-5%)	10mo	$198,000	$111	77
20306 77th Ave E	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,716 (-9%)	18mo	$180,000	$105	66
8009 195th St E #89	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,772 (-6%)	5mo	$125,000	$71	61
8102 195th St E #95	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,778 (-5%)	5mo	$180,000	$101	58
20815 84th Ave E	0.54mi	3/2.0	2,095 (+11%)	1mo	$540,000	$258	55
8215 192nd Street Ct E #34	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (-5%)	4mo	$190,000	$107	49
8310 207th St E	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-14%)	9mo	$500,000	$310	48
8004 192nd Street Ct E #10	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (-5%)	11mo	$230,000	$129	47
8104 194th St E #51	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (-5%)	15mo	$145,000	$82	46
7218 191st Street Ct E	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (-2%)	14mo	$480,000	$260	46
8417 195th St E #121	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,782 (-5%)	16mo	$175,000	$98	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $16,985
• Equity at exit: $35,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $98,406
• Equity at exit: $20,746

Cash invested: $67,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98387

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,599/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$657
• Net cashflow: $814

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $239,950

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $980	-5% $897	+0% $814	+5% $731	+10% $649
Rent	-10% $567	-5% $691	+0% $814	+5% $938	+10% $1,062
Rate	-1.0pp $935	-0.5pp $875	base $814	+0.5pp $752	+1.0pp $689

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,988
• Closing costs: $7,198
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20519 80th Ave E Spanaway, WA	4.0	2.5	2031	$2,925	$1.44	5d	1	0.20mi
20121 70th Ave E Spanaway, WA	4.0	3.0	1680	$2,950	$1.76	0d	1	0.50mi
19605 84th Ave E Spanaway, WA	3.0	2.5	1916	$3,050	$1.59	25d	1	0.62mi
19906 100th Avenue Ct E Graham, WA	3.0	2.0	1322	$2,749	$2.08	17d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,950 Active 150 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,950 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,950 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,950 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,950 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,950 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,950 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,950 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,950 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,950 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,950 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,950 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 695-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    price $239,950 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 132 DOM
17. 2026-03-27
    price $250,000
18. 2026-02-20
    status Active
19. 2026-01-11
    status Pending
20. 2025-12-11
    price $265,000
21. 2025-12-10
    listed $249,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,441
• − Property taxes: −$3,599
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,005
• − Management: −$3,005
• − Depreciation: −$6,980
• Taxable income: $6,329
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,519
• After-tax cash flow: $8,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethel School District
• NCES district ID: 5300480
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,872
• Composite: 48.66/100
• National rank: #4568
• State rank: #103 of 291 in WA

Livability — Frederickson

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #5426

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Frederickson, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 32,195
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 50,774
• Household income: $106,872
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 10% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -208.94%
• Current HPI: 308.0462
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.24%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $250,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-11 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $265,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Listed $249,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid