2501 Kelly Rd · Guthrie, OK 73044

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2000 2.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You will love the beautiful view of the rolling hills while relaxing in your back yard. New paint, stove, dishwasher, fridge, stack w/d and h/w htr. Large spacious rooms w/MIL plan. Bring offer!!! 2000 Fleetwood 28x60. $1,500 Carpet allowance provided.

Key facts

• Timeless cabinetry
• Expansive kitchen
• Inviting front porch

Tags

• 2.5 ACRES
• MATURE TREES
• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• EXPANSIVE KITCHEN
• TIMELESS CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead eligible
• Financial info: Loan qualifying available
• HOA & community: No mandatory association dues

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; Other parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Faces northwest; Residential property
• Construction: Mobile construction; Composition roof; Conventional foundation; Built as an existing property
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Open deck; Porch; Outbuildings; Storage; Chain link fencing; Cul-de-sac lot; Greenbelt; Interior lot; Rural setting; Wooded

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric range/oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (one-level home)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Inside utility; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.1% in Guthrie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#15 in OK, #4,696 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Guthrie (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #119 of 270 in OK (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fogarty Es (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #84 of 845 statewide, top 11%, 438 students, 0% FRL); Guthrie Hs (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #125 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 1,025 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 851 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $199k implies a 298% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,795 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.57%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-9,536
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $50,995
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73044

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 851
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $601/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,489

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $325	-5% $269	+0% $212	+5% $156	+10% $100
Rent	-10% $73	-5% $143	+0% $212	+5% $282	+10% $351
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $263	base $212	+0.5pp $161	+1.0pp $108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   status $199,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   status $199,000 Pending 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   remarks 693-char remark
8. 2026-06-07
   listed $199,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $601 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,791 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,190/yr (+$99/mo · 198.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$601
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$812
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$195
• After-tax cash flow: $2,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guthrie
• NCES district ID: 4013560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,370
• Composite: 20.79/100
• National rank: #8513
• State rank: #119 of 270 in OK

Livability — Guthrie

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #4696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Logan County · 25,398 people
• City population: 25,398
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 25,398
• Household income: $72,288
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,683 people
• By 2030: 60,011 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 68,071 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 75,815 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 94,749 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 108,057 · +94.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.4% · R 73.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+47.1 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.90%
• Current HPI: 247.9481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.22%
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+298.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $199,000 MLSOK
• 2019-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2007-12-19 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2006-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records
• 2006-12-11 Sold (MLS) $63,500 MLSOK
• 2006-07-25 Listed $71,500 MLSOK
• 2004-09-10 Listed $49,900 MLSOK

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $601 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.