2916 Genuine Risk Ct · Celina, TX 75009

$649,563

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,252 sqft · SingleFamily · 153 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,011 sqft lot 3-car garage $200/sqft · 24% below area Est $860k · 24% under $147/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Peony brings together dramatic architectural details, generous living spaces, and thoughtful design in a two-story home made for both everyday comfort and entertaining. Ideally positioned right next to the community's walking trails and pond, this homesite makes it easy to step outside and enjoy the beautiful surroundings just moments from your front door. This floor plan features 4 bedrooms, 4 full bathrooms, a powder bath, and a 3-car garage, along with a dedicated study that provides a private space for working from home, studying, or creating a quiet retreat.

Key facts

• Owner's bath
• Guest suites
• Upstairs bedroom

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OWNER'S BATH
• OPEN FAMILY AND DINING SPACES
• GUEST SUITES
• UPSTAIRS BEDROOM
• CENTER ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $650k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $373k (42.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $353k (45.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $353k (45.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3878 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 76% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $353,249 (45.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.18%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $859,819
• List price: $649,563
• Delta: -18.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2137 Ten Mile Creek Rd	0.61mi	4/4.0	3,286 (+1%)	1mo	$625,000	$190	67
2617 Eclipse Pl	0.42mi	4/3.5	3,000 (-8%)	3mo	$710,000	$237	61
2913 Vaquero Ln	0.73mi	4/4.0	3,221 (-1%)	3mo	$919,000	$285	60
3032 Cliffside Dr	0.72mi	4/4.0	3,084 (-5%)	2mo	$497,790	$161	54
2801 N Little Current Ct	0.61mi	4/4.5	3,634 (+12%)	3mo	$990,900	$273	50
2414 Hawksbury Ct	0.65mi	4/4.5	3,628 (+12%)	1mo	$1,200,000	$331	49
3016 Cliffside Dr	0.71mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,056 (-6%)	1mo	$483,500	$158	49
2105 Ten Mile Creek Ct	0.66mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,022 (-7%)	1mo	$599,000	$198	48
2204 Berman St	0.65mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,524 (+8%)	2mo	$569,000	$161	47
2808 Citation Rd	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,994 (-8%)	3mo	$635,000	$212	46
2620 Cedar Ridge Rd	0.61mi	4/4.5	3,714 (+14%)	2mo	$599,000	$161	46
3009 Cliffside Dr	0.74mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,004 (-8%)	2mo	$539,990	$180	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-237,187
• Equity at exit: $96,852

10-year hold

• IRR: -97.7%
• Equity multiple: -1.21×
• Total profit: $-402,584
• Equity at exit: $56,162

Cash invested: $181,878 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 275 active · 56 under contract
• Months of supply: 26.2 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $679,990 ($224/sqft)
• Median days on market: 127 d
• This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 3878
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,532 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,406
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$812 /mo · $9,743/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$147
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$742
• Net cashflow: $-1,912

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,952

Max offer price $372,926

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,463	-5% $-1,687	+0% $-1,912	+5% $-2,136	+10% $-2,361
Rent	-10% $-2,191	-5% $-2,051	+0% $-1,912	+5% $-1,772	+10% $-1,633
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,585	-0.5pp $-1,747	base $-1,912	+0.5pp $-2,080	+1.0pp $-2,251

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,391
• Closing costs: $19,487
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Precocious Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3316	$4,700	$1.42	54d	1	0.18mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	139d	1	0.19mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	139d	1	0.29mi
2632 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2359	$3,650	$1.55	3d	1	0.32mi
2020 Stonebrook St Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3596	$3,295	$0.92	50d	1	0.46mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	114d	1	0.47mi
2912 Seattle Slew Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3679	$4,000	$1.09	0d	1	0.48mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$2,995	$1.06	80d	1	0.52mi
1913 Bristol St Celina, TX	4.0	4.0	3462	$3,200	$0.92	51d	1	0.63mi
1837 Whispering Pines Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3670	$3,550	$0.97	97d	1	0.64mi
2232 Grey September St Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3003	$4,500	$1.50	89d	1	0.64mi
1837 Whispering Pines Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3664	$3,400	$0.93	59d	1	0.64mi
1837 Whispering Pines Dr Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	3670	$3,550	$0.97	87d	1	0.64mi
3125 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2331	$3,300	$1.42	83d	1	0.72mi
3125 Pedigree Ct Celina, TX	4.0	4.5	3589	$4,600	$1.28	30d	1	0.73mi
3138 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2368	$3,000	$1.27	120d	1	0.77mi
3533 Hyacinth Way Prosper, TX	4.0	3.5	3405	$3,600	$1.06	57d	1	1.02mi
3328 Zenyatta Ct Celina, TX	5.0	5.0	4328	$5,000	$1.16	0d	1	1.08mi
3332 Zenyatta Ct Celina, TX	4.0	4.5	3789	$4,495	$1.19	0d	1	1.09mi
2437 Plumeria Ln Celina, TX	5.0	5.0	3257	$3,611	$1.11	139d	1	1.20mi
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	68d	1	1.22mi
2524 Lafayette Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2807	$3,300	$1.18	18d	1	1.26mi
1629 White Snowberry Ln Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2996	$3,200	$1.07	107d	1	1.27mi
4108 Water Stone Ct McKinney, TX	5.0	4.5	4540	$5,500	$1.21	83d	1	1.28mi
1624 Goldenrod Dr Celina, TX	4.0	4.0	2735	$3,350	$1.22	3d	1	1.32mi
3008 Evergreen Trl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2503	$2,595	$1.04	78d	1	1.33mi
6531 Swallow Ct McKinney, TX	4.0	3.0	3049	$1,700	$0.56	31d	1	1.35mi
1117 Goldfinch Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2939	$2,950	$1.00	33d	1	1.38mi
3517 Henry Xing Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2281	$2,695	$1.18	98d	1	1.38mi
3517 Henry Xing Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2281	$2,600	$1.14	76d	1	1.38mi
2821 Adon Springs Ln Celina, TX	5.0	3.5	4064	$4,250	$1.05	94d	1	1.45mi
1308 Ladys Mantle Way Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2975	$3,400	$1.14	4d	1	1.45mi
2809 River Bend Pl Celina, TX	5.0	4.0	4288	$4,250	$0.99	18d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 2916 Genuine Risk Ct, Celina TX 75009List price indicated (buyer to verify)
• Financial info: Active listing

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces3-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (spec new construction)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3,204

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (4.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Peony plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $649,563 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $649,563 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $649,563 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $649,563 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $649,563 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $649,563 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $649,563 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $649,563 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   pricedays on market $649,563 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $699,558 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $699,558 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $699,558 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $699,558 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $699,558 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on marketlisting id $699,558 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $699,558 Active 111 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $699,558 Active 110 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $699,558 Active 109 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $699,558 Active 108 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $699,558 Active 107 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $699,558 Active 106 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $699,558 Active 105 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $699,558 Active 104 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $699,558 Active 103 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $699,558 Active 102 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $699,558 Active 101 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $699,558 Active 100 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $699,558 Active 99 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $699,558 Active 98 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $699,558 Active 97 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $699,558 Active 96 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $699,558 Active 95 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    price $699,558 Active 94 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $716,568 Active 94 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $716,568 Active 93 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $716,568 Active 92 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $716,568 Active 91 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $716,568 Active 90 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $716,568 Active 89 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $716,568 Active 88 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $716,568 Active 86 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $716,568 Active 85 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $716,568 Active 84 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $716,568 Active 83 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $716,568 Active 80 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $716,568 Active 79 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $716,568 Active 78 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $716,568 Active 77 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $716,568 Active 75 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $716,568 Active 73 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,386
• − Property taxes: −$9,743
• − Insurance: −$4,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,391
• − Management: −$3,391
• − HOA: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$18,896
• Taxable loss: −$35,227
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,455
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This Peony floor plan by David Weekley Homes is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a high ROI with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures throughout — Enhances interior aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marcy B Lykins El F TX #1,243/4,322 Nat'l #17,190/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 2916 Genuine Risk Ct, Celina TX 75009List price indicated (buyer to verify)
• Financial info: Active listing

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces3-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (spec new construction)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3,204

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (4.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Peony plan)