13641 Cedar St · Searles Valley, CA 93562

$84,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1963 8,712 sqft lot Est $89k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated home at Pioneer Point, Trona. New energy-efficient dual pane windows. Tile flooring in the kitchen, dining area, hallway, and bathroom. Gas range, refrigerator, and dishwasher are included. Covered patio, large gated backyard. Fully fenced front yard. Ready to move in!

Key facts

• Large gated backyard
• Covered patio
• Tile flooring

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• COVERED PATIO
• LARGE GATED BACKYARD
• FULLY FENCED FRONT YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Site-built home; Residential property; Zoned R1
• Construction: Frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Fenced yard; Shed(s); RV/boat storage; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Window coverings; Dishwasher; Range; Oven; Refrigerator; Carpet flooring; Tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-194/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $82k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $70k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $70k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#500 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Trona Joint Unified (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,004 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Trona Elementary (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,340 of 1,571 statewide, top 88%, 131 students, 71% FRL); Trona High (math 5% / reading 34%, grade F, #987 of 1,170 statewide, top 86%, 116 students, 76% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Trona Joint Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($587 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,000 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,376
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
84454 SEARLES St	0.34mi	2/1.0	842 (-8%)	4mo	$79,500	$94	68
84432 8th St	0.25mi	2/1.0	843 (-8%)	23mo	$25,000	$30	57
84565 9th St St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,020 (+12%)	13mo	$100,000	$98	54
84668 Searles St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	950 (+4%)	16mo	$95,000	$100	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $9,197
• Equity at exit: $38,175

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $34,197
• Equity at exit: $58,832

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93562

• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,063/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$147
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $720

Max offer price $82,042

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $8	+0% $-16	+5% $-40	+10% $-64
Rent	-10% $-71	-5% $-44	+0% $-16	+5% $11	+10% $39
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $5	base $-16	+0.5pp $-38	+1.0pp $-61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13358 Verbena St Trona, CA	2.0	1.0	835	$700	$0.84	45d	1	1.48mi
13366 Verbena St Trona, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$700	$0.88	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $84,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $84,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $84,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    listed $84,900 Active
18. 2021-11-02
    soldstatus $72,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Updated home at Pioneer Point, Trona. New energy-efficient dual pane windows. Tile flooring in the kitchen, dining area, hallway, and bathroom. Gas range, refrigerator, and dishwasher are included. Covered patio, large gated backyard. Fully fenced front yard. Ready to move in!

19. 2021-11-02
    soldstatus $72,000

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Updated home at Pioneer Point, Trona. New energy-efficient dual pane windows. Tile flooring in the kitchen, dining area, hallway, and bathroom. Gas range, refrigerator, and dishwasher are included. Covered patio, large gated backyard. Fully fenced front yard. Ready to move in!

20. 2021-09-07
    listed $72,900 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Updated home at Pioneer Point, Trona. New energy-efficient dual pane windows. Tile flooring in the kitchen, dining area, hallway, and bathroom. Gas range, refrigerator, and dishwasher are included. Covered patio, large gated backyard. Fully fenced front yard. Ready to move in!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,063 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,063 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,063
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$672
• − Management: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable loss: −$1,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$398
• After-tax cash flow: $204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trona Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0639840
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,514
• Composite: 29.6/100
• National rank: #11751
• State rank: #1004 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Searles Valley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #500
• US rank: #16976

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Searles Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,822

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+16.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $84,900 SSMLS
• 2021-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-02 Sold (MLS) $72,000 SSMLS
• 2021-09-07 Listed $72,900 SSMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,063 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.