1309 Scoter Duck Rd · Columbia, TN 38401

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 313 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition $121/sqft · 37% below area Est $300k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with beautiful views overlooking the Duck River. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, comfortable living spaces, and an included 8x10 storage shed—perfect for extra storage. Call the office to schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Built 2023
• Listed 313 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $466 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.8% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#207 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Maury County (town): math 19% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #108 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 1118 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,650 units permitted in Maury County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maury County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.51%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,900
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -36.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,876
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $57,734
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38401

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 1118
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,013 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $591/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,423

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1827 Goldsberry St Columbia, TN	3.0	2.5	1503	$1,795	$1.19	16d	1	1.16mi
552 Nightengale Ridge Dr , TN	3.0	2.5	2163	$2,500	$1.16	12d	1	1.17mi
1422 Club House Dr Columbia, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$1,799	$1.73	1d	20	1.29mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 313 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 312 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 311 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 310 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 308 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $189,900 Active 307 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 304 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 303 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 302 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 298 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 297 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 296 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 295 DOM
14. 2026-02-26
    price $199,900 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with beautiful views overlooking the Duck River. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, comfortable living spaces, and an included 8x10 storage shed—perfect for extra storage. Call the office to schedule your tour today!

15. 2026-02-21
    status Active 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with beautiful views overlooking the Duck River. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, comfortable living spaces, and an included 8x10 storage shed—perfect for extra storage. Call the office to schedule your tour today!

16. 2026-02-21
    price $209,900 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with beautiful views overlooking the Duck River. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, comfortable living spaces, and an included 8x10 storage shed—perfect for extra storage. Call the office to schedule your tour today!

17. 2024-05-22
    historical 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with beautiful views overlooking the Duck River. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, comfortable living spaces, and an included 8x10 storage shed—perfect for extra storage. Call the office to schedule your tour today!

18. 2023-11-08
    listed $195,532 Active 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with beautiful views overlooking the Duck River. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, comfortable living spaces, and an included 8x10 storage shed—perfect for extra storage. Call the office to schedule your tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $591 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,348 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$757/yr (+$63/mo · 128.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$591
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $2,585
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$620
• After-tax cash flow: $4,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal. It's ready for a new owner to move in.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Both Replace blinds with energy-efficient windows — Improved energy efficiency and better light control
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace blinds with energy-efficient windows — Improved energy efficiency and better light control ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maury County
• NCES district ID: 4702760
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,668
• Composite: 17.69/100
• National rank: #9024
• State rank: #108 of 139 in TN

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #16090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, TN
• County: Maury County · 121,382 people
• City population: 67,482
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 67,482
• Household income: $68,475
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2026.0

Population outlook (Maury County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,894 people
• By 2030: 110,269 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 124,426 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 137,543 · +33.7%
• By 2075: 167,438 · +62.7%
• By 2100: 184,489 · +79.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maury

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.6) · D 27.1% · R 71.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -44.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.6 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.75%
• Current HPI: 343.0362
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+2.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $199,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $209,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-21 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-05-22 Delisted — Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $195,532 Zillow

Property tax history

-21.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $591 · -37.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.