1309 Scoter Duck Rd · Columbia, TN 38401

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 356 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2023 Good condition $121/sqft · 37% below area Est $300k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.2

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with beautiful views overlooking the Duck River. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, comfortable living spaces, and an included 8x10 storage shed—perfect for extra storage. Call the office to schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Built 2023
• Listed 356 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($683/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.0% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#207 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Maury County (town): math 19% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #108 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Riverside Elementary (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #786 of 952 statewide, top 84%, 429 students, 0% FRL); E. A. Cox Middle School (math 6% / reading 7%, grade F, #284 of 333 statewide, top 86%, 656 students, 0% FRL); Columbia Central High School (math 7% / reading 27%, grade F, #225 of 332 statewide, top 69%, 1,474 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 1327 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,650 units permitted in Maury County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maury County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 356 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,512 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 356 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.28%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,900
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -36.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1801 Goldsberry St	1.13mi	3/2.5	1,511 (-4%)	2mo	$278,000	$184	55
1825 Goldsberry St	1.16mi	3/2.5	1,549 (-1%)	7mo	$255,000	$165	55
1335 Danbury Dr #62	1.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,628 (+4%)	4mo	$337,500	$207	50
614 Nightengale Ridge Dr	0.94mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+11%)	2mo	$385,000	$221	45
1302 Crofton Park Ct	1.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (+9%)	1mo	$346,000	$202	44
1768 Rockwell Lndg	1.23mi	3/2.0	1,720 (+10%)	8mo	$428,990	$249	42
569 Nightengale Ridge Dr	1.19mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+11%)	6mo	$389,990	$224	42
407 Oakview Dr	1.30mi	3/3.0	1,740 (+11%)	4mo	$299,900	$172	39
613 Nightengale Ridge Dr	0.94mi	3/2.5	1,813 (+16%)	1mo	$401,190	$221	37
105 Tommy Dr	1.47mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-20%)	3mo	$295,000	$234	37
1711 Horsepower Dr	1.45mi	3/2.5	1,767 (+13%)	9mo	$325,000	$184	34
1552 Oak Springs Dr	1.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,930 (+23%)	7mo	$389,990	$202	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-24,219
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,890
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active
• Median asking: $171,500 ($106/sqft)
• Median days on market: 144 d
• This list price: 72% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +80.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 38401

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 1327
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $591/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,423

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $111	+0% $57	+5% $3	+10% $-51
Rent	-10% $-61	-5% $-2	+0% $57	+5% $116	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $153	-0.5pp $105	base $57	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1827 Goldsberry St Columbia, TN	3.0	2.5	1503	$1,795	$1.19	65d	1	1.16mi
552 Nightengale Ridge Dr , TN	3.0	2.5	2163	$2,600	$1.20	41d	1	1.17mi
1422 Club House Dr Columbia, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$1,877	$1.81	11d	20	1.29mi
1023 Chickasaw Trl Columbia, TN	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,475	$1.39	17d	1	1.33mi
213 Granada Dr Columbia, TN	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,225	$1.09	47d	1	1.46mi
1022 Hillcrest Ave Unit 1 Columbia, TN	2.0	1.0	1316	$1,500	$1.14	35d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 356 DOM
2. 2026-07-30
   days on market $189,900 Active 354 DOM
3. 2026-07-28
   days on market $189,900 Active 353 DOM
4. 2026-07-26
   days on market $189,900 Active 351 DOM
5. 2026-07-24
   days on market $189,900 Active 349 DOM
6. 2026-07-23
   days on market $189,900 Active 348 DOM
7. 2026-07-22
   days on market $189,900 Active 347 DOM
8. 2026-07-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 346 DOM
9. 2026-07-20
   days on market $189,900 Active 345 DOM
10. 2026-07-18
    days on market $189,900 Active 343 DOM
11. 2026-07-18
    days on market $189,900 Active 342 DOM
12. 2026-07-16
    days on market $189,900 Active 341 DOM
13. 2026-07-15
    days on market $189,900 Active 340 DOM
14. 2026-07-14
    days on market $189,900 Active 339 DOM
15. 2026-07-13
    days on market $189,900 Active 338 DOM
16. 2026-07-13
    days on market $189,900 Active 337 DOM
17. 2026-07-11
    days on market $189,900 Active 336 DOM
18. 2026-07-10
    days on market $189,900 Active 335 DOM
19. 2026-07-09
    days on market $189,900 Active 334 DOM
20. 2026-07-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 332 DOM
21. 2026-07-06
    days on market $189,900 Active 331 DOM
22. 2026-07-06
    days on market $189,900 Active 330 DOM
23. 2026-07-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 328 DOM
24. 2026-07-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 327 DOM
25. 2026-07-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 326 DOM
26. 2026-06-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 325 DOM
27. 2026-06-29
    days on market $189,900 Active 324 DOM
28. 2026-06-28
    days on market $189,900 Active 323 DOM
29. 2026-06-27
    days on market $189,900 Active 322 DOM
30. 2026-06-27
    days on market $189,900 Active 321 DOM
31. 2026-06-25
    days on market $189,900 Active 319 DOM
32. 2026-06-22
    days on market $189,900 Active 317 DOM
33. 2026-06-21
    days on market $189,900 Active 316 DOM
34. 2026-06-18
    days on market $189,900 Active 313 DOM
35. 2026-06-17
    days on market $189,900 Active 312 DOM
36. 2026-06-16
    days on market $189,900 Active 311 DOM
37. 2026-06-15
    days on market $189,900 Active 310 DOM
38. 2026-06-13
    days on market $189,900 Active 308 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $189,900 Active 307 DOM
40. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,900 Active 304 DOM
41. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 303 DOM
42. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 302 DOM
43. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 298 DOM
44. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 297 DOM
45. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 296 DOM
46. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 295 DOM
47. 2026-02-26
    price $199,900 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with beautiful views overlooking the Duck River. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, comfortable living spaces, and an included 8x10 storage shed—perfect for extra storage. Call the office to schedule your tour today!

48. 2026-02-21
    status Active 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with beautiful views overlooking the Duck River. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, comfortable living spaces, and an included 8x10 storage shed—perfect for extra storage. Call the office to schedule your tour today!

49. 2026-02-21
    price $209,900 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with beautiful views overlooking the Duck River. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, comfortable living spaces, and an included 8x10 storage shed—perfect for extra storage. Call the office to schedule your tour today!

50. 2024-05-22
    historical 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with beautiful views overlooking the Duck River. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, comfortable living spaces, and an included 8x10 storage shed—perfect for extra storage. Call the office to schedule your tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $591 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,348 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$757/yr (+$63/mo · 128.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$591
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$2,631
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$632
• After-tax cash flow: $1,314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,840–$23,520 screening

This mobile home is in good condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal. It's ready for a new owner to move in.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Replace blinds with energy-efficient windows — Improved energy efficiency and better light control ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 13/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Riverside Elementary F TN #786/952 Nat'l #38,100/41,679 Middle Whitthorne Middle School F TN #257/333 Nat'l #13,307/14,009 High Columbia Central High School F TN #225/332 Nat'l #15,029/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maury County
• NCES district ID: 4702760
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,668
• Composite: 17.69/100
• National rank: #9024
• State rank: #108 of 139 in TN

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #16090

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, TN
• County: Maury County · 102,894 people
• City population: 67,482
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 67,482
• Household income: $68,475
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Maury County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 102,894 people
• By 2030: 110,269 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 124,426 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 137,543 · +33.7%
• By 2075: 167,438 · +62.7%
• By 2100: 184,489 · +79.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maury

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.6) · D 27.1% · R 71.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -44.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.6 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.75%
• Current HPI: 343.0362
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+2.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $199,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $209,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-21 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-05-22 Delisted — Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $195,532 Zillow

Property tax history

-21.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $591 · -37.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.