3548 Valley Trl · Kathleen, FL 33810

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 936 sqft · Land · 92 Days on market

Built 2025 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cleared, flat 1/4+ acre lot in X flood zone meaning no flood insurance is needed. Electric ready and available to set up. This lot is next to a mobile home which is also for sale MLS#L4934834 so if you are looking for a 1/2+ acre lot, take them both to have an oversized lot for play, gardening, fruit trees or adding a mobile and use it as a rental or for a family member.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 2025
• Listed 92 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.26 acres (approx. 90 x 125); Property ID US-12105-N-232728011017000060-R-N; Unfurnished; Directions: from Valley Farm Dr, left on Valley Trl — house on the left
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association; No association approval required

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic required; Other utilities
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (double wide); One level; North-facing; Under construction (projected completion March 31, 2026)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; New construction; Built by Live Oak (model: Flash); Builder license IH1143538; Year/area: 936 sq ft living area
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-In Oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Other laundry features

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($79/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#752 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $189k implies a 656% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,166 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.15%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-30,549
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-27,460
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,662 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5138 Rollinglen Loop W Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	924	$1,400	$1.52	3d	1	0.34mi
5442 Lewellyn Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	14d	1	0.59mi
3276 Mount Tabor Rd Lot 28 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	896	$1,295	$1.45	3d	1	0.80mi
3276 Mount Tabor Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	896	$1,195	$1.33	3d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   status $189,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-10
   listed $189,000 Active
5. 2026-01-08
   historical
6. 2025-11-04
   price $199,000
7. 2025-07-24
   status Active
8. 2025-05-09
   status Pending
9. 2025-04-10
   status Active
10. 2025-01-22
    status Pending
11. 2025-01-09
    listed $210,000 Active
12. 2023-03-08
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Cleared, flat 1/4+ acre lot in X flood zone meaning no flood insurance is needed. Electric ready and available to set up. This lot is next to a mobile home which is also for sale MLS#L4934834 so if you are looking for a 1/2+ acre lot, take them both to have an oversized lot for play, gardening, fruit trees or adding a mobile and use it as a rental or for a family member.

13. 2023-02-15
    status Pending 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Cleared, flat 1/4+ acre lot in X flood zone meaning no flood insurance is needed. Electric ready and available to set up. This lot is next to a mobile home which is also for sale MLS#L4934834 so if you are looking for a 1/2+ acre lot, take them both to have an oversized lot for play, gardening, fruit trees or adding a mobile and use it as a rental or for a family member.

14. 2023-01-27
    listed $41,900 Active 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    Cleared, flat 1/4+ acre lot in X flood zone meaning no flood insurance is needed. Electric ready and available to set up. This lot is next to a mobile home which is also for sale MLS#L4934834 so if you are looking for a 1/2+ acre lot, take them both to have an oversized lot for play, gardening, fruit trees or adding a mobile and use it as a rental or for a family member.

15. 2020-04-20
    soldstatus $10,500
16. 2020-04-17
    soldstatus $10,500 Sold
17. 2020-04-11
    status Pending
18. 2020-03-09
    listed $17,500 Active
19. 2019-12-18
    soldstatus $37,300
20. 2002-01-23
    soldstatus $89,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,595
• − Management: −$1,595
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$3,116
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$748
• After-tax cash flow: $827/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kathleen

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #752
• US rank: #16450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kathleen, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 52,734
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+110.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Listed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-09 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-08 Sold (MLS) $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-27 Listed $41,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $10,500 Public Records
• 2020-04-17 Sold (MLS) $10,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-09 Listed $17,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $37,300 Public Records
• 2002-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $89,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $374 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.