2612 Walnut Ln · Masonville, KY 42376

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1972 4,200 sqft lot Est $226k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath brick residence in Utica, Kentucky. Offering timeless curb appeal and solid construction, this well-maintained home provides comfortable living with plenty of outdoor space to enjoy. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with spacious living areas, comfortable bedrooms, and abundant natural light throughout. The detached garage offers excellent storage, workshop space, or protection for your vehicle. Situated on a beautiful lot with a nice yard, this property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, entertaining, or simply relaxing and enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Don't miss your chance to own this inviting brick hom

Key facts

• 4,200 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.2% in Masonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#213 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Daviess County (suburban): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #43 of 165 in KY (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Deer Park Elementary School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #208 of 676 statewide, top 34%, 480 students, 58% FRL); College View Middle School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 863 students, 50% FRL); Daviess County High School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #37 of 254 statewide, top 15%, 1,740 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 226 units permitted in Daviess County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Daviess County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $165k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.95%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,792
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2824 Blueberry Lane Ln	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+2%)	0mo	$115,000	$96	91
6416 Walnut Ct	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,131 (-4%)	12mo	$185,000	$164	81
6400 Valley Brook Trce	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,176 (0%)	4mo	$225,900	$192	74
6566 Harmony Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,231 (+5%)	8mo	$199,900	$162	72
6431 Autumn Valley Trce	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,184 (+1%)	13mo	$244,500	$207	70
6367 Valley Brook Trce	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,176 (0%)	16mo	$219,900	$187	67
6378 Valley Brook Trce	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,151 (-2%)	11mo	$245,000	$213	66
6448 Autumn Valley Trce	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+12%)	8mo	$239,000	$182	54
6529 Valley Brook Trce	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,184 (+1%)	12mo	$237,000	$200	54
6540 Valley Brook Trce	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,239 (+5%)	3mo	$250,000	$202	53
6738 Hwy 231	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+5%)	16mo	$275,000	$223	51
2684 Cherry Blossom Ct	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,206 (+3%)	15mo	$207,000	$172	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,373
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $29,209
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42376

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,259/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,315

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $476	-5% $430	+0% $383	+5% $336	+10% $290
Rent	-10% $241	-5% $312	+0% $383	+5% $454	+10% $525
Rate	-1.0pp $466	-0.5pp $425	base $383	+0.5pp $340	+1.0pp $297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6412 Valley Brook Trce Utica, KY	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,800	$1.28	44d	1	0.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-15
   listed $165,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,259 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$160/yr (+$13/mo · 12.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,259
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $2,018
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$484
• After-tax cash flow: $4,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Daviess County
• NCES district ID: 2101470
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $52,303
• Composite: 32.2/100
• National rank: #5778
• State rank: #43 of 165 in KY

Livability — Masonville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #10347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Masonville, KY
• Population (ZIP): 6,800

Population outlook (Daviess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 103,810 people
• By 2030: 105,722 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 108,731 · +4.7%
• By 2050: 110,295 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 113,056 · +8.9%
• By 2100: 106,257 · +2.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea

Political lean MEDSL · Daviess

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.9) · D 33.3% · R 65.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.1pp · 2024: -31.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.9 2020: R+27.9 2016: R+32.2 2012: R+21.1 2008: R+10.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.02%
• Current HPI: 229.5493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2020-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,259 · +19.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.