4125 Mchenry Ave #69 · Modesto, CA 95356

$73,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 124 Days on market

Built 1969 Est $53k · 39% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4125 McHenry Ave. , Space 69, Modesto, CA 95356-a truly charming and modern single-wide mobile home located in a desirable 55+ senior living community. This beautiful, turnkey residence features an open, contemporary floor plan highlighted by elegant crown molding and baseboards, creating a refined and welcoming atmosphere. Enjoy peace of mind with a well-maintained roof, dual-pane windows, and a waterless on-demand hot water system. Gorgeous French doors add style and natural light, seamlessly blending indoor comfort with outdoor charm. The low-maintenance front yard enhances the home's charming exterior, perfect for easy living. Ideally situated, this community is centrally lo

Key facts

• Dual-pane windows
• Centrally located
• Well-maintained roof

Tags

• MODERN SINGLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• OPEN CONTEMPORARY FLOOR PLAN
• WELL-MAINTAINED ROOF
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• LOW-MAINTENANCE FRONT YARD
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: McHenry to Grecian. Mobile home park is located between Regal Cinema and U-Haul
• Financial info: Land lease amount listed separately where applicable
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; No land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Gas plumbed; Cable available; Internet available; 220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Single-wide; Updated/remodeled; Built in 1969
• Construction: Metal roof; Metal skirting; Lancer mobile home
• Exterior features: Patio awning; Carport awning; Exterior storage and shed(s); Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Ceramic counters; Built-in gas oven; Gas cooktop; Range hood; Freestanding refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tile and shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp; Dual-pane full windows; Porch with steps, covered deck and railings; Storage area inside; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry hookups; 220V outlet in laundry area; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $776 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $505 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.55%
• DSCR: 3.03
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $52,560
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4125 Mchenry Ave #13	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (0%)	6mo	$35,000	$49	90
4125 Mchenry Ave #54	0.06mi	2/1.0 (+1)	720 (0%)	6mo	$34,000	$47	87
4125 Mchenry Ave #57	0.06mi	2/1.0 (+1)	800 (+11%)	5mo	$102,000	$128	70
4125 Mchenry Ave #63	0.00mi	2/2.0 (+1)	812 (+13%)	4mo	$87,500	$108	67
4024 Mchenry Ave #135	0.18mi	2/1.0 (+1)	660 (-8%)	11mo	$57,000	$86	64
4125 Mchenry Ave #83	0.04mi	1/1.0	800 (+11%)	23mo	$35,000	$44	60
4024 Mchenry Ave #143	0.18mi	2/1.0 (+1)	826 (+15%)	14mo	$59,900	$73	50
15 Schooner Ln	0.51mi	2/1.0 (+1)	756 (+5%)	20mo	$30,000	$40	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $32,856
• Equity at exit: $10,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.62×
• Total profit: $73,979
• Equity at exit: $6,312

Cash invested: $20,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95356

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,621 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$383
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$91 /mo · $1,095/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $776

Break-even live

Break-even rent $639

Max offer price $73,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $826	-5% $801	+0% $776	+5% $751	+10% $725
Rent	-10% $648	-5% $712	+0% $776	+5% $840	+10% $904
Rate	-1.0pp $813	-0.5pp $794	base $776	+0.5pp $757	+1.0pp $738

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,250
• Closing costs: $2,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Warren Way Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,450	$2.00	14d	4	0.49mi
3601 Bridgeford Ln Modesto, CA	1.0	1.0	660	$1,495	$2.27	14d	1	0.55mi
3104 Sherwood Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	820	$1,818	$2.22	14d	10	1.01mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	1.0	1.0	707	$1,645	$2.33	14d	1	1.37mi
200 Sheila Ct Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	841	$1,475	$1.75	14d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $73,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $73,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $73,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $73,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $73,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $73,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $73,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $73,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $73,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $73,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $73,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $73,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $73,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,500 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,500 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $76,500 Active 105 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,089
• − Property taxes: −$1,095
• − Insurance: −$365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,556
• − Management: −$1,556
• − Depreciation: −$2,124
• Taxable income: $8,663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,079
• After-tax cash flow: $7,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,233
• Household income: $96,886
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 847.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 16% Asian 9% Pacific Islander 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -374.73%
• Current HPI: 270.6957
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B