435 Spruce St · Holly Grove, AR 72069

$30,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 258 Days on market

Built 1940 0.26 ac lot $22/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Good rental or duck club .

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $676 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#315 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Clarendon School District (rural): math 7% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #232 of 238 in AR (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $900 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 258 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 258 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 96.58%
• DSCR: 5.30
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,662
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -59.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 Honeycutt Way	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-11%)	2mo	$65,000	$54	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $46,673
• Equity at exit: $13,489

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.60×
• Total profit: $105,814
• Equity at exit: $20,789

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72069

• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $157/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $232

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $693	-5% $685	+0% $676	+5% $668	+10% $659
Rent	-10% $590	-5% $633	+0% $676	+5% $719	+10% $762
Rate	-1.0pp $691	-0.5pp $684	base $676	+0.5pp $668	+1.0pp $660

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $30,000 Active 258 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $30,000 Active 256 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 255 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 254 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 253 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 252 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $30,000 Active 250 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $30,000 Active 249 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 246 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $30,000 Active 245 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 244 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $30,000 Active 240 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 239 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 238 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 237 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 236 DOM
17. 2025-10-06
    listed $30,000 New Listing 26-char remark

    Show marketing remark (26 chars)

    Good rental or duck club .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $157 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $192 · $16/mo
• Expected delta: +$35/yr (+$3/mo · 22.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$157
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,044
• − Management: −$1,044
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $8,100
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,944
• After-tax cash flow: $6,169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarendon School District
• NCES district ID: 0504350
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,539
• Composite: 8.66/100
• National rank: #9896
• State rank: #232 of 238 in AR

Livability — Holly Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #20948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly Grove, AR
• Population (ZIP): 941

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,269 people
• By 2030: 5,738 · -8.5%
• By 2040: 4,856 · -22.5%
• By 2050: 4,205 · -32.9%
• By 2075: 3,448 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 3,278 · -47.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 35%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Hungarian 1% Romanian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: R (+15.8) · D 41.2% · R 56.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -15.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+3.7 2012: R+0.1 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-06 Listed $30,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $157 · -10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.