3023 Skipper Ln · St. James City, FL 33956

$345,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · Manufactured public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2004 3,833 sqft lot Est $472k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious and well maintained, this home offers lots of storage. This home had no water in the house from any of the recent storms. This home features a large great room, a glassed in porch on the water with a portable A/C unit, a small patio, a boat lift, an in home laundry room with sink and extra storage, and covered parking. Come see this home to appreciate the spaciousness.

Key facts

• Glassed in porch
• Boat lift
• Covered parking

Tags

• LARGE GREAT ROOM
• GLASSED IN PORCH
• BOAT LIFT
• IN HOME LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: No association fee; Community boat facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered carport for 2 vehicles
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Entry level: 1; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Glass-enclosed patio/porch; Patio; Porch; Canal access with seawall; West exposure; Rectangular, paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Tray ceilings; Vaulted ceiling(s); Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Living/dining room; Main-level primary bedroom; Shower only in bath; Separate shower; Dual sinks; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Single-hung windows with shutters
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry tub; Disposal

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $568 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $345k).
• Recommended offer: $324k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $345k implies a 273% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $324,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.35%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $472,188
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2970 Sloop Ln	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,374 (-5%)	22mo	$449,900	$327	71
3122 Binnacle Ln	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	11mo	$305,000	$202	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-19,567
• Equity at exit: $51,441

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $30,267
• Equity at exit: $29,829

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,995 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,506/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$839
• Net cashflow: $568

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,276

Max offer price $345,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3103 Harpoon Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$3,000	$2.74	24d	1	0.12mi
2951 York Rd Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	24d	1	0.24mi
4011 Galt Island Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,000	$2.72	24d	1	0.25mi
3864 Royal Palm Dr Saint James City, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	24d	1	0.31mi
3811 Emerald Ave Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$5,500	$3.67	24d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $345,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,000 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $345,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $345,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $345,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $345,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $345,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $345,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $345,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-03-19
    listed $345,000 Active
13. 2003-08-07
    soldstatus $92,500
14. 2003-01-27
    listed $99,900
15. 1997-06-18
    soldstatus $36,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,506 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,864 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$357/yr (+$30/mo · 14.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$2,506
• − Insurance: −$6,844
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,835
• − Management: −$3,835
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable income: $1,557
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$374
• After-tax cash flow: $6,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+845.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $345,000 FORTMLS
• 2003-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 2003-01-27 Listed $99,900 FORTMLS
• 1997-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $36,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,506 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.