3111 Ponderosa Dr · Jackson, MS 39212

$84,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,507 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1964 10,454 sqft lot $56/sqft · 29% above area Est $66k · 29% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This classic brick-and-vinyl ranch-style home offers the perfect blend of timeless charm and modern functional living, spanning 1,507 square feet of thoughtfully designed interior space. Situated on a generous 0.243-acre lot, the property is highlighted by mature trees around the perimeter, providing natural beauty and a sense of established tranquility. As you approach, you are greeted by an expansive 4x24 uncovered front porch, providing a welcoming transition into a home filled with natural light. The interior features beautiful hardwood flooring throughout the main living areas and bedrooms, creating a cohesive and sophisticated aesthetic. The heart of the home is the impressive 13x19 family room, which serves as a central gathering space. This room features a stunning white painted brick fireplace that adds a touch of modern character and warmth. Positioned directly off the kitchen, the family room offers an effortless flow for daily life, while large sliding glass doors lead directly out to a massive back patio, perfect for outdoor relaxation. The kitchen is designed for efficiency and ease, providing direct access to a dedicated 8x10 laundry room. This oversized utility space offers ample room for organization and additional storage, keeping household tasks tucked away from the main living areas. The sleeping quarters feature three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite that serves as a private retreat with its own full bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Outside, the level backyard is an ideal setting for outdoor dining or gardening. For those needing extra storage or hobby space, the property includes an 8x11 shed located conveniently off the attached carport. The carport itself provides covered parking and weather-protected access to the home. Whether you are enjoying a quiet evening by the fireplace or hosting a gathering on the expansive patio, this home accommodates a variety of lifestyles with ease.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Massive back patio
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• BRICK AND VINYL RANCH STYLE
• UNCOVERED FRONT PORCH
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• WHITE PAINTED BRICK FIREPLACE
• MASSIVE BACK PATIO
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,259 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.67%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,977
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: 28.68%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1943 Bienville Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-2%)	8mo	$25,000	$17	79
3114 Suncrest Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,432 (-5%)	3mo	$64,900	$45	75
1027 Autumn St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,694 (+12%)	1mo	$84,900	$50	64
1907 Bienville Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-13%)	4mo	$69,000	$53	62
2971 Kentwood Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (+2%)	3mo	$59,900	$39	61
1422 Wooddell Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,540 (+2%)	6mo	$99,000	$64	60
1928 Teakwood Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,299 (-14%)	3mo	$68,000	$52	58
1423 Woody Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,404 (-7%)	2mo	$24,900	$18	57
950 Woodville Dr	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,362 (-10%)	10mo	$17,500	$13	55
1416 Wooddell Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,357 (-10%)	4mo	$35,000	$26	54
1636 Smallwood St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,432 (-5%)	1mo	$17,000	$12	49
1244 Cooper Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+12%)	2mo	$65,000	$39	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $12,692
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $49,873
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39212

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,274 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,630/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $780

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2808 Ridgeland Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,600	$1.00	43d	1	0.36mi
2915 Longwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,400	$0.78	23d	1	0.45mi
3341 Suncrest Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	1.0	1292	$1,225	$0.95	43d	1	0.50mi
1054 Deryll St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1132	$1,050	$0.93	13d	1	0.53mi
1018 Deryll St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1056	$900	$0.85	23d	1	0.55mi
1010 Deryll St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,050	$0.92	13d	1	0.55mi
3308 Ramona St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,150	$1.04	21d	1	0.65mi
2904 Marwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,250	$0.80	23d	1	0.72mi
1219 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1058	$1,150	$1.09	23d	1	0.74mi
3049 Lakewood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1200	$975	$0.81	43d	1	0.77mi
3020 Lakewood Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,150	$0.72	23d	1	0.80mi
427 McDowell Park Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1308	$1,200	$0.92	13d	1	0.93mi
3122 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,100	$0.77	43d	1	0.96mi
3030 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	13d	1	0.96mi
3030 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	43d	1	0.96mi
3162 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,236	$0.97	43d	1	0.97mi
3147 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	2137	$1,425	$0.67	43d	1	1.09mi
3147 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	2137	$1,425	$0.67	13d	1	1.09mi
3151 Shirley Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1474	$1,306	$0.89	13d	1	1.09mi
1223 Marydale Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1300	$950	$0.73	43d	1	1.22mi
2873 Teresa Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	1.23mi
2732 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1566	$1,050	$0.67	23d	1	1.24mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	23d	1	1.26mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	13d	1	1.26mi
5136 Lurline Dr Unit Ma Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1134	$1,100	$0.97	13d	1	1.27mi
2694 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1509	$1,075	$0.71	13d	1	1.29mi
2694 Woodside Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1509	$1,075	$0.71	23d	1	1.29mi
1533 Raymond Rd Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	1135	$1,010	$0.89	43d	1	1.35mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	13d	1	1.38mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	43d	1	1.38mi
2729 Carleton St Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1666	$1,575	$0.95	13d	1	1.39mi
296 Woodcliff Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	2242	$1,756	$0.78	13d	1	1.44mi
3147 Bilgray Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1850	$1,306	$0.71	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,900 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,900 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $84,900 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $84,900 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-03-06
    listed $89,900 Active 1956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1956 chars)

    This classic brick-and-vinyl ranch-style home offers the perfect blend of timeless charm and modern functional living, spanning 1,507 square feet of thoughtfully designed interior space. Situated on a generous 0.243-acre lot, the property is highlighted by mature trees around the perimeter, providing natural beauty and a sense of established tranquility. As you approach, you are greeted by an expansive 4x24 uncovered front porch, providing a welcoming transition into a home filled with natural light. The interior features beautiful hardwood flooring throughout the main living areas and bedrooms, creating a cohesive and sophisticated aesthetic. The heart of the home is the impressive 13x19 family room, which serves as a central gathering space. This room features a stunning white painted brick fireplace that adds a touch of modern character and warmth. Positioned directly off the kitchen, the family room offers an effortless flow for daily life, while large sliding glass doors lead directly out to a massive back patio, perfect for outdoor relaxation. The kitchen is designed for efficiency and ease, providing direct access to a dedicated 8x10 laundry room. This oversized utility space offers ample room for organization and additional storage, keeping household tasks tucked away from the main living areas. The sleeping quarters feature three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite that serves as a private retreat with its own full bathroom and a generous walk-in closet. Outside, the level backyard is an ideal setting for outdoor dining or gardening. For those needing extra storage or hobby space, the property includes an 8x11 shed located conveniently off the attached carport. The carport itself provides covered parking and weather-protected access to the home. Whether you are enjoying a quiet evening by the fireplace or hosting a gathering on the expansive patio, this home accommodates a variety of lifestyles with ease.

18. 2021-02-22
    soldstatus
19. 2013-04-03
    soldstatus 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    This home features 3 Bedroom 2 Bath Great-room with Fireplace, Large Fenced Back Yard and Double Carport.

20. 2013-04-03
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    This home features 3 Bedroom 2 Bath Great-room with Fireplace, Large Fenced Back Yard and Double Carport.

21. 2012-10-05
    listed $17,000 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    This home features 3 Bedroom 2 Bath Great-room with Fireplace, Large Fenced Back Yard and Double Carport.

22. 2006-01-10
    soldstatus
23. 2006-01-06
    soldstatus
24. 2005-09-06
    listed $93,000
25. 1999-09-30
    soldstatus
26. 1968-02-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,630 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,630 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,630
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,223
• − Management: −$1,223
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $3,557
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$854
• After-tax cash flow: $3,822/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,659
• Household income: $50,722
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1314.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.01%
• Current HPI: 174.4025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $89,900 MLSU
• 2021-02-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-04-03 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2012-10-05 Listed $17,000 MLSU
• 2006-01-10 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2006-01-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-09-06 Listed $93,000 MLSU
• 1999-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1968-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,630 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.