916 Butternut St · Carlsbad, NM 88220

$223,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,795 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2019 8,376 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW NEW NEW Energy Star Home in a NEW subdivision! Spacious 4 bedroom 2 bath home . Features an Open Concept living/Dining/ kitchen/Family room area. Walk in closets in ALL bedrooms. Convenient island in the kitchen. All kitchen appliances are included! Spacious master suite with luxury tub. Separate utility room Cinder block fenced back yard! Fully landscaped front yard with bubblers to trees.

Key facts

• Energy star home
• Walk-in closets
• Kitchen island

Tags

• ENERGY STAR HOME
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• CINDERBLOCK-FENCED BACKYARD
• DOG AREA FENCED OFF
• FULLY XERISCAPE FRONT YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured house (double wide); One story; Residential property
• Construction: Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Dog run; Fenced yard with block fencing; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Double-pane windows; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $223k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#20 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Zoned schools: Early Childhood Education Center (170 students, 25% FRL); Carlsbad Sixth Grade Academy - Alta Vista Campus (705 students, 44% FRL); Carlsbad High (1,551 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.16%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-12,449
• Equity at exit: $33,250

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $19,562
• Equity at exit: $19,281

Cash invested: $62,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88220

• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,982/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,807

Max offer price $223,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $499	-5% $436	+0% $372	+5% $309	+10% $246
Rent	-10% $192	-5% $282	+0% $372	+5% $462	+10% $552
Rate	-1.0pp $485	-0.5pp $429	base $372	+0.5pp $315	+1.0pp $256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,750
• Closing costs: $6,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
506 Southern Sky St Carlsbad, NM	4.0	2.0	2100	$3,500	$1.67	45d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $223,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $223,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $223,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $223,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $223,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $223,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $223,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $223,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $223,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 424-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $223,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,982 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,982 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,491
• − Property taxes: −$1,982
• − Insurance: −$1,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,187
• − Management: −$2,187
• − Depreciation: −$6,487
• Taxable income: $891
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$214
• After-tax cash flow: $4,256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #7925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, NM
• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• City population: 39,828
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 39,828
• Household income: $78,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 46% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.72%
• Current HPI: 114.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+6.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $223,000 NMMLS
• 2019-08-20 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2019-05-18 Listed $210,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+58.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,982 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.