21239 E 65th Dr · Aurora, CO 80019

$400,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 82 Days on market

Built 2025 1,760 sqft lot $276/sqft · at area comps Est $415k · at est. $140/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Loveland offers an open kitchen, spacious living area, private primary suite, and flexible extra bedrooms for modern living.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• White cabinets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE CABINETS
• CHARMING COVERED FRONT PORCH
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• CONVENIENT LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $361k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $304k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Aurora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#70 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• School District 27J (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 86 in CO (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Second Creek Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #706 of 966 statewide, top 75%, 678 students, 48% FRL); Otho E Stuart Middle School (math 10% / reading 44%, grade F, #154 of 270 statewide, top 59%, 791 students, 42% FRL); Prairie View High School (math 15% / reading 38%, grade F, #262 of 381 statewide, top 69%, 1,821 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $303,822 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,495
• List price: $400,000
• Delta: -3.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6574 N Malta St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,542 (+6%)	14mo	$489,950	$318	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-78,831
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-86,809
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80019

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,038 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,583/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$140
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$638
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,316

Max offer price $361,250

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7	-5% $-106	+0% $-219	+5% $-333	+10% $-446
Rent	-10% $-459	-5% $-339	+0% $-219	+5% $-99	+10% $21
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-118	base $-219	+0.5pp $-323	+1.0pp $-428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21244 E 65th Dr Aurora, CO	3.0	2.5	1653	$2,700	$1.63	17d	1	0.02mi
6650 N Lisbon St Aurora, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	958	$2,489	$2.60	0d	36	0.22mi
21775 E 65th Ave Aurora, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1081	$3,165	$2.93	0d	224	0.31mi
21650 E 56th Ave Aurora, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	938	$2,682	$2.86	0d	90	1.14mi
19182 E 62nd Ave Denver, CO	3.0	2.5	1461	$3,024	$2.07	0d	11	1.37mi
6026 N Ceylon St Denver, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$2,713	$2.50	0d	11	1.42mi
19290 E 59th Ave Denver, CO	3.0–4.0	2.5	1762	$2,999	$1.70	0d	5	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $140 · $1,680/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $400,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $400,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $400,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $400,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $400,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $400,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $400,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $400,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $400,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $400,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $400,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $400,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $400,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $400,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $400,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-04-25
    status Active 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    The Loveland offers an open kitchen, spacious living area, private primary suite, and flexible extra bedrooms for modern living.

17. 2026-04-25
    historical 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    The Loveland offers an open kitchen, spacious living area, private primary suite, and flexible extra bedrooms for modern living.

18. 2026-04-22
    listed $400,000 Active 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    The Loveland offers an open kitchen, spacious living area, private primary suite, and flexible extra bedrooms for modern living.

19. 2026-03-31
    listed $400,000 Active 1361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1361 chars)

    Full Whirlpool appliance package, and full home blinds included for move-in convenience! Open concept kitchen with granite countertops and white cabinets! The Loveland is a stylish two-story townhome featuring an open-concept main floor and a charming covered front porch. Upstairs offers three bedrooms, including a private primary suite, plus a convenient laundry room. With 2.5 baths and a two-bay garage, this design blends comfort and functionality. The Meritage Home difference includes spray-foam insulation, advanced air filtration for year-round comfort and healthier air, and durable cementitious siding known for its strength, fire-resistance, and long-lasting performance. Welcome home where every detail is built for comfort, efficiency, and LIFE. BUILT. BETTER. Skyview at High Point in Aurora offers a prime location just minutes from Denver International Airport and the Gaylord Rockies Resort. With easy access to E-470 and the light rail, plus nearby parks and open space, this community makes commuting simple and outdoor adventures convenient. *This home qualifies for special incentives through builder preferred lender for a limited time. Terms and conditions apply. See sales counselor for details! *Photos are representative only and not of the actual home. Actual elevations, appliances and interior finishes may vary.

20. 2026-03-31
    listed $400,000 Active 1361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1361 chars)

    Full Whirlpool appliance package, and full home blinds included for move-in convenience! Open concept kitchen with granite countertops and white cabinets! The Loveland is a stylish two-story townhome featuring an open-concept main floor and a charming covered front porch. Upstairs offers three bedrooms, including a private primary suite, plus a convenient laundry room. With 2.5 baths and a two-bay garage, this design blends comfort and functionality. The Meritage Home difference includes spray-foam insulation, advanced air filtration for year-round comfort and healthier air, and durable cementitious siding known for its strength, fire-resistance, and long-lasting performance. Welcome home where every detail is built for comfort, efficiency, and LIFE. BUILT. BETTER. Skyview at High Point in Aurora offers a prime location just minutes from Denver International Airport and the Gaylord Rockies Resort. With easy access to E-470 and the light rail, plus nearby parks and open space, this community makes commuting simple and outdoor adventures convenient. *This home qualifies for special incentives through builder preferred lender for a limited time. Terms and conditions apply. See sales counselor for details! *Photos are representative only and not of the actual home. Actual elevations, appliances and interior finishes may vary.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,583 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,583 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,459
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$2,583
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,917
• − Management: −$2,917
• − HOA: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$9,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,323
• After-tax cash flow: $-309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: School District 27J
• NCES district ID: 0802580
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $79,576
• Composite: 27.72/100
• National rank: #6904
• State rank: #46 of 86 in CO

Livability — Aurora

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #6441

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aurora, CO
• County: Adams County · 464,133 people
• City population: 397,430
• Metro: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
• Population (ZIP): 7,900
• Household income: $129,154
• Rent vs Own: 14.5% rent · 85.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 68.0

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 598,184 people
• By 2030: 651,880 · +9.0%
• By 2040: 759,778 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 862,889 · +44.3%
• By 2075: 1,085,994 · +81.5%
• By 2100: 1,211,318 · +102.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 32% White 23% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.2% · R 44.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 18.4pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+16.3 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+15.1 2008: D+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.11%
• Current HPI: 214.7767
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-25 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Listed $400,000 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Listed $400,000 IRES
• 2026-03-31 Listed $400,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1866.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,583 · +42.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.