15809 Marcello Cir · Bonita Springs, FL 34110

$375,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,580 sqft · Townhouse · 332 Days on market

Built 2005 $516/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home in this prime North Naples location! This beautiful 3 bedroom property boasts an open floor plan with Cortex flooring and fresh paint throughout, complemented by newer appliances, fans, and lighting. The outdoor experience is unparalleled, with a private back patio featuring lush greenery and a new sun screen, perfect for relaxation and entertainment. A mere stroll across the street reveals a serene grassy dog park, enhancing your living experience with picturesque views. This property is part of a community enriched with amenities including a pool/spa, basketball courts, and tennis courts. Essential home updates include a 5-year-old air conditioner, 3-year-old wa

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Tennis courts
• Private back patio

Tags

• PRIVATE BACK PATIO
• LUSH GREENERY
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL SPA
• BASKETBALL COURTS
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual recurring HOA fees and totals available; Property is residential in the MILANO development
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (MILANO), professionally managed; Quarterly HOA fee; HOA covers cable, insurance, internet/Wi-Fi access, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, management, exterior pest control, and street lights; Community amenities include community pool, community room, community spa/hot tub, tennis court, pickleball, basketball, BBQ/picnic area, dog park, sidewalks, and underground utilities; Non-gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 assigned space (1 garage space)
• Security: Monitored alarm
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Townhouse, 2-story; Rear exposure faces west; Zero lot line
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Single-hung windows; Built in 2005
• Exterior features: Patio; Landscaped view; Central irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator/freezer; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Cable pre-wiring; Fire sprinkler system; Foyer; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Vaulted ceiling; Walk-in closet; Dining area in living room; Screened lanai/porch; Guest bath
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer and dryer included; Auto garage door opener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $375k).
• Recommended offer: $330k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Memorial Elementary School (math 78% / reading 79%, grade A, #141 of 2,144 statewide, top 7%, 743 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 55% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 78% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,528/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 332 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $73k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $330,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 332 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.40%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $3,660
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $45,509
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34110

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,528 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$516
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,161
• Net cashflow: $1,260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,934

Max offer price $375,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16097 Ravina Way #36 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$2,395	$1.52	21d	1	0.37mi
6522 Waverly Green Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2039	$4,500	$2.21	23d	1	0.50mi
6478 Waverly Green Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1711	$10,000	$5.84	23d	1	0.51mi
16208 Parque Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$12,500	$6.25	23d	1	0.52mi
250 Willowick Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1469	$3,500	$2.38	23d	1	0.53mi
16188 Parque Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1974	$5,500	$2.79	23d	1	0.53mi
208 Erie Dr Unit 1355591P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1754	$5,550	$3.16	13d	1	0.60mi
5630 Sherborn Dr #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2005	$7,500	$3.74	23d	1	0.64mi
5455 Worthington Ln #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$5,000	$4.16	23d	1	0.73mi
5455 Worthington Ln #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$3,900	$2.73	23d	1	0.73mi
5870 3 Iron Dr Unit 4-401 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1633	$8,000	$4.90	23d	1	0.75mi
5963 Trophy Dr #2002 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2160	$8,000	$3.70	23d	1	0.77mi
6017 Trophy Dr #601 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2160	$8,000	$3.70	23d	1	0.78mi
5935 Northridge Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1671	$2,995	$1.79	23d	1	0.81mi
6029 Trophy Dr #301 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2160	$6,000	$2.78	23d	1	0.82mi
5885 Three Iron Dr #1102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1633	$7,000	$4.29	23d	1	0.82mi
5892 Three Iron Dr #1504 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$7,000	$3.90	23d	1	0.86mi
5765 Grande Reserve Way Unit 7-702 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1800	$7,500	$4.17	23d	1	0.86mi
16366 Barclay Ct Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2034	$4,750	$2.34	21d	1	0.87mi
16366 Barclay Ct Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2034	$4,750	$2.34	23d	1	0.87mi
5967 Sand Wedge Ln #106 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$2,875	$1.87	23d	1	0.89mi
16210 Allura Cir Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$3,570	$3.31	13d	18	0.89mi
5145 Cobble Creek Ct #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1798	$2,600	$1.45	21d	1	0.89mi
16432 Aberdeen Way Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	2055	$4,200	$2.04	23d	1	0.90mi
5886 Paradise Cir Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1922	$6,800	$3.54	23d	1	0.90mi
5325 Andover Dr #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1654	$5,250	$3.17	23d	1	0.91mi
5963 Sand Wedge Ln #205 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$6,500	$4.40	23d	1	0.92mi
5963 Sand Wedge Ln #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$5,750	$3.86	23d	1	0.92mi
5330 Andover Dr #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,550	$1.47	23d	1	0.93mi
5945 Sand Wedge Ln #1003 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$6,000	$4.03	23d	1	0.94mi
5941 Sand Wedge Ln #1206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$3,450	$2.24	23d	1	0.95mi
5130 Cobble Creek Ct Unit B202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,800	$1.37	13d	1	0.96mi
5937 Sand Wedge Ln #1507 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$6,500	$4.22	23d	1	0.96mi
5360 Andover Dr #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1928	$6,500	$3.37	23d	1	0.97mi
5944 Sand Wedge Ln #1108 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$6,250	$4.23	23d	1	0.98mi
194 Wickliffe Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1798	$3,500	$1.95	23d	1	0.98mi
5705 Heron Ln #806 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$7,000	$4.55	23d	1	0.99mi
5923 Sand Wedge Ln #1906 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$2,695	$1.75	21d	1	0.99mi
5940 Sand Wedge Ln #1407 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$5,500	$3.57	23d	1	0.99mi
5632 Whisperwood Blvd #1601 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$8,000	$4.31	23d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $516 · $6,192/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $375,000 Pending 332 DOM
2. 2026-05-18
   status Pending With Contingencies
3. 2026-02-24
   status Active
4. 2026-02-22
   status Pending With Contingencies
5. 2026-02-06
   price $375,000
6. 2025-12-07
   price $385,000
7. 2025-10-01
   price $399,000
8. 2025-08-08
   price $415,000
9. 2025-07-01
   price $425,000
10. 2025-06-18
    listed $448,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$5,625
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,307
• − Management: −$5,307
• − HOA: −$6,192
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable income: $10,116
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,428
• After-tax cash flow: $12,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,630
• Household income: $97,564
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1006.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.68%
• Current HPI: 267.4644
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.06%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-16.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-22 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $375,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $385,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $399,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $415,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $425,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-06-18 Listed $448,000 NAPLESMLS