8300 Kern Canyon Rd #41 · East Niles, CA 93306

$89,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1972 $69/sqft · 38% above area Est $65k · 38% over ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this rare opportunity for you and your family to own a beautifully upgraded double-wide mobile home located in the desirable Terrace Garden Estates community. This home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering comfort and functionality throughout. From the moment you step inside, you'll love the warm and inviting feel that makes it easy to picture yourself living here. The community offers great amenities including a swimming pool and a community hall perfect for special events and gatherings. The home is move-in ready in less than 30 days and includes central heating along with wall A/C units for year-round comfort. This is a must-see property that won't last long!

Key facts

• Central heating
• Community hall
• Wall a/c units

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• SWIMMING POOL
• COMMUNITY HALL
• CENTRAL HEATING
• WALL A/C UNITS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Association clubhouse/recreation; Association pool; Association has pet rules (call for info)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home zoning (MH)
• Construction: Roof: Other (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Community pool; Leased space; Vacant

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating
• Interior features: Formal living room; Formal dining room; Range/Oven; Central heat

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $894 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.2% vs local median 4.4% in East Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,299 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.59%
• DSCR: 2.90
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,388
• List price: $89,999
• Delta: 37.64%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #150	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+4%)	1mo	$93,000	$69	93
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #93	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-4%)	2mo	$68,000	$54	87
8500 Kern Canyon Rd #139	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+4%)	3mo	$74,000	$55	79
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #44	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+4%)	6mo	$63,000	$47	75
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #146	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-4%)	8mo	$85,000	$68	74
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #100	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+4%)	8mo	$105,000	$78	73
9305 Eastwind Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+4%)	6mo	$250,000	$186	72
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #73	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+11%)	2mo	$105,000	$73	66
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #186	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+11%)	3mo	$129,900	$90	65
8904 Eastwind Cir	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-4%)	6mo	$285,000	$228	64
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #136	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (+10%)	8mo	$125,000	$87	63
9108 Eastwind Cir	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+8%)	7mo	$245,000	$175	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $40,981
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.10×
• Total profit: $103,374
• Equity at exit: $7,781

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93306

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $408/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $894

Break-even live

Break-even rent $688

Max offer price $89,999

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3217 Fortier St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,650	$1.54	2d	1	0.28mi
7000 College Ave Apt 168 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	957	$1,655	$1.73	19d	1	0.86mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1054	$1,067	$1.01	44d	1	0.87mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,005	$1.14	2d	1	0.87mi
8817 Butternut Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,200	$1.59	2d	1	1.13mi
9802 Krista Vineyard Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,195	$1.69	2d	1	1.34mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Apt 127 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$1,535	$1.57	44d	1	1.35mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Unit 152 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,610	$1.55	2d	1	1.35mi
6106 Auburn St Bakersfield, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	897	$1,995	$2.22	2d	34	1.48mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,999 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,999 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,999 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,999 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,999 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,999 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,999 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,999 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,999 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,999 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,999 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,999 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,999 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,999 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $89,999 Active 699-char remark
16. 2025-05-12
    price $79,900
17. 2025-04-28
    listed $85,000 Active
18. 2025-02-22
    price $83,989
19. 2025-02-21
    price $79,000
20. 2024-10-29
    price $85,000
21. 2024-08-24
    listed $90,000 Active
22. 2024-05-29
    price $88,500
23. 2023-11-30
    historical
24. 2023-08-17
    status Active
25. 2023-07-30
    price $110,000
26. 2023-07-06
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $408 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $684 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$276/yr (+$23/mo · 67.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$408
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,747
• − Management: −$1,747
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $9,829
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,359
• After-tax cash flow: $8,374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — East Niles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Niles, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 74,116
• Household income: $69,805
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2871.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 46% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.02%
• Current HPI: 358.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.24%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-28.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $89,999 GEMLS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $79,900 GEMLS
• 2025-04-28 Listed $85,000 GEMLS
• 2025-02-22 Price Changed $83,989 GEMLS
• 2025-02-21 Price Changed $79,000 GEMLS
• 2024-10-29 Price Changed $85,000 GEMLS
• 2024-08-24 Listed $90,000 GEMLS
• 2024-05-29 Price Changed $88,500 GEMLS
• 2023-11-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-08-17 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-07-30 Price Changed $110,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-06 Listed $125,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $408 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.